With this trajectory of our field, would you instill a sense of curiosity and creativity towards programming if your son or daughter expresses an interest towards it? If yes, why? If no, why?
Also I don't see professional software becoming "black-boxed" the way compiler produced machine language is or the way ML models are. Certain isolated components whose characteristics and behaviors can be sufficiently and more efficiently specified and verified with human language sources will be black boxes but in many circumstances the code is the most efficient and precise and correct rendition and that will be the material in which human work occurs. Cheers.
You think there's no much point in learning to code by hand anymore as a means to financial freedom?
Make it about problem solving and fun? Forget about “industry” and what everyone else is doing!
I too started at an early age, and it was just about fun for me!
I imagine you have some sort of argument, I'm guessing it's a flavor of optimizing for opportunity cost?
Try to apply that same argument to English, or math... does it still hold? I'd hope not!
Instead, teach them to find joy in life. Encourage them to find passion in something creative or expressive.
I would teach my kid programming, I'll also teach them how to make a fire from friction. It doesn't matter if they ever actually need to use it, it'll make them a better human. Maybe they find they love programming, maybe they find out they love backpacking and decide to hike the PCT.
Either way I've given them a skill that might help them with some future I can't possibly predict for them.
There is no invention like it, and all other fields can leverage it.