Are the consequences as terrible as foretold? The end of Western Civilization? Or can Europe, the UK, Canada and Australia, and New Zealand, save that set of sociocultural values and government?
Does winning mean in hot, kinetic war? A drone war? Is carved up spheres of multipolar influence, 'winning' enough?
All these are important considerations - feel free to entertain them, but the primary one is, assuming some definition of "the US has lost" its significant global power - what does the world look like?
The harder an answer is to arrive at, the better. The more thought, cleverness, insight and analysis, the better. The easier the answer is to construct (ie, "well obviously less regime change wars for oil" etc), the worse answer it is. Or is the whole international game an illusion, there is no superpower, it's all just for show?
I really want to see a picture of what you think is coming within 15 years, and what stands to be lost, or gained, if anything, if the US 'doesn't win'?
On the global scale, naturally China and Russia jockey for a dominant position but clearly China has the economic and political advantage. I see Europe being preoccupied with stemming Russian incursions while China gradually expands their economic reach until they serve the global economic role that the US once did. China’s continuous investment in Africa means that African nations (Nigeria in particular) might start to play a bigger role on the world stage.
I think the west vs the rest divisions that have structured the geopolitical world since WWII might be significantly reorganized with China at the helm. What that means for us normies out here just trying to live life, I have no idea.
The new world order involves ordinary people living their ordinary banal life as though everything is fine and they are the pinnacle of modernity. They simply have no true power over their natural destinies. Their rights of consent, even lawful recourse are inhibited by invisible rules and consequences that swallow up dissonance with a shrug, an eye roll, and a yawn from the rest of the population who is more satisfied keeping the comforts and conveniences they have been allowed.
Rather than the George Jetson future we strive for, we will have a ~1950s peak society with technology and features relegated to gimmicks or class perks.
The order established by the Abrahamic faiths and western philosophies (which were heavily influenced by pre-existing middle eastern cultures or works) has been useful for demonstrating what ideas work and what don’t. People who want to believe in their own false narratives about alternatives will experience a rude awakening, and blame their failures on their “enemies”, like many in western cultures are doing now to their detractors. What hasn’t worked is pretending that oligopoly and monopoly are capitalism; too much influence is given to a few sources, and too many resources are spent or wasted on them.
U.S. the country will be fine because it has an arsenal of weapons, both military and otherwise, as long as it doesn’t let its debt issues overpower its economy. U.S. will need to remember that you have to spend money to make money, that means more grants and funding opportunities, and at the same time maybe that means less social programs, like public education.
Europe will be fine as long as it puts immigration quotas in place, and doesn’t let Russia overpower it.
Middle East and South Asian countries need to calm down with Israel because they really need to worry about India, which is positioned for supremacy after China. Russia seems like a distraction at this point, but it depends. Israel is more influenced by western democratic principles and philosophies than India, and so would make a better ally for most countries, as long as both countries can operate in good faith. You can never trust countries to operate in good faith, doesn’t matter which country it is.
LATAM and Africa will continue the blame and social manipulation games, as per usual. Oceania will be fine as long as it doesn’t let Europe’s migration issues target it.
The other global powers will find that they never should have wanted global supremacy, and they’re ill-equipped to deal with it. The UK will coast on via indirect manipulation as always since it gave up global supremacy.