What are your predictions for this coming year?
2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 (the rest of this list is copied from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38779963)
2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236
2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
2017: none?
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2013: none?
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids.
On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significantly more negative effects.
* We'll see the worlds first trillionaire
* Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025
* Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music)
* Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video.
* LLMs will continue to improve substantially, being able to solve more and more complex tasks, like the Putnam exam and others. Research will continue to try and integrate LLMs into a toolchain to improve performance
* LLMs and other generative AI tasks will continue to become more and more accessible ($2.5k for a machine able to do fairly advanced training?)
* The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k
* Twitter and Facebook will still be around, Bluesky will be no more, Mastodon will continue to be niche
* All the above will be used by people to invent and discover weird, wonderful and horrible things that I can't even imagine.
* LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and exciting again and not the delight of both Wall Street and the ‘shoeshine boy’.
* Cloud egress costs will be heavily scrutinized and competed upon as transferring data no longer becomes a competitive advantage.
* Apple or someone like Apple will take advantage of cratering storage/compute costs by moving things off cloud to a locally owned ‘box’ that pairs with a new dumb-client/thin phone (backups, massive storage, running some compute on this box, sharing/storing ‘family’ stuff, streaming games or movies etc) also accessible via a reverse proxy (vpn) from anywhere.
* A combo of aibo/roomba/ring like device that goes about or rolls around your house and does things for you… kinda real life flubber.
* Selling users’ data goes out of fashion (goog/meta) as new companies use privacy as a competitive advantage to sell ads.
* Finally games actually have AI that doesn’t suck - a new class of AI games that would challenge and delight humans like never before.
90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM.
90% CL: AI with tool use that has access to physics simulator and CAD software will automatically advances efficent engine design.
70% CL: Million dollar prompt run on million dollar math prize. Millennium Prize Problems
40% CL: AI sucessfully held back invasive species encrochment with lessons from AI war machines
30% CL: Cheap AI nose sniffs out many common diseases. Automatic data analysis of Gas Chromatography and spectroscopy readings on patients' VOC(volatile organic compounds) produces fast and cheap diagnosis.
10% CL: Not next year, Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity. Or other processes to package solar energy for trade.
The first ruling has already happened: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/t...
What this ruling means is that the algorithm is a expression of the first amendment from the platform itself. If the algorithm does harmful things it causes first party liability.
My prediction is that the administration will not do much to the social media giants but class action lawsuits will.
2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code.
3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid.
Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#Compariso...
Program/Project Manager roles go to zero.
Trad dev and design roles go to zero.
Those roles go to those who also code/design/sell/get viral/make videos/write tutorials/devrel/run communities/answer customer support.
It used to be "do designers learn to code" or "do coders learn to design?
now it's learn ALL those things, fast, with AI, or hang out in the tendie loin.
it's dog eat dog and no one's safe
2. The "social media" giants will invest more in public affairs to improve their image as public resistance grows. Expect lots of research papers getting funded that sow doubt and fear about banning children from social media, following similar strategies to tobacco and oil industries.
3. Miraculously, Truth Social and X will be exempt from the same controls put on other platforms. Justified on the basis that they are official communication channels for the government.
National Intelligence Council/Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends 2025
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%2...
* Extract more crude oil than in any year in history.
* Produce more steel than in any year in history.
* Not produce more cement than in any year in history.
* Install more solar capacity than in any year in history.
* See a US federal government funded by CRs (no budget will be passed).
* Experience power outages worldwide from a CME.
* See the US officially declare war on more than one country to export immigrants.
* See the AMOC measurably weaken and cause flooding on the Eastern coast of the US.
* See me sell my first game or application.
* See an end to the war in the Ukraine, with Russia gaining the Donbas region.
* Go crazy with the Steam Deck 2.
* Observe that a keyboard left unattended next to my 5 year old will result in key mashing. * [o[p 8.ikomt,j8mhykufvgvjlrdl,kersrkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkjkkkjkjjkjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk777777777777771111111111111111110000000000000000333333333333333123456789012356789w23536376376276217111111111111111654321`1234567890-z/.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;GFV
- (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y
- (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry
- (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025
- (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure
- (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security
Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population
Some of the owners of the most uncommon Counterstrike skin gambling sites are making about $50 million a month.
- There will be a "Predictions for 2026" thread. (Hehehe)
- OpenAI announces GPT-5 will be the last model of the GPT-n series (As in they won't release a GPT-6)
- Apple will sell a backpack (With some sort of technology included of course)
- Magnus Carlsen will lose his 1st place in the FIDE top ranking. ("He has held the No. 1 position in the FIDE world chess rankings since 1 July 2011")
- E.T. will get a sequel
ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.
GenAI tools will "replace" developers in the same way that no/low code tools allowed anyone to make an app. These tools will be tied to specific vendors, meaning you can completely embed with AWS/Google/OpenAI as an LLM app platform, or hire that developer to build the app. Developers who augment their tooling with LLMs will learn faster and become stronger generalists overall. Grow-fast companies will hire less than otherwise, but subject matter experts will keep the lights on and those who can reach across bureaucracies to get things done will remain.
Consumer appetite for products using LLMs for traditional workflows will tarnish: chat bots and human-computer interfaces will frustrate but novel applications like improved search and last-mile customization might take hold: "AI powered" will leave marketing lexicon for segments with consumers who want more privacy and who just want to buy new shoes online.
We won't see the return of high-demand positions with high pay and lots of perks. Companies have been incentivized and permitted to run lean and increase performance demands from remaining staff. Teams have been understaffed for months, but growth remains steady.
Gaza War ends
Still no Super Bowl for the Ravens
Gallup general mood[0] above 37%
Russel outperforms NASDAQ
No Quantum news
Inflation does not rise meaningfully (in US)
Relative stability in Syria
EU economy slows
Some North Korea news [1]
Year of the Linux Desktop [2]
[0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx [1] Nuke test and/or negotiations [2] Joke
And that will put extra pressure on an already unstable global politics scenario. What will follow may tell us in which flavor of dystopia we are in, either denialism and escapism keeping business as usual, or "emergency measures" with some sectors grabbing even more power.
I think 2025 Will mark a bottom for that in one way or another- either private industry (the FANGs) suffers a setback or (more likely in my view) research universities start a comeback as a new set of startups begin to launch out of a department (not necessarily CS or hardware). Perhaps in another field like gene therapy.
- Hybrid work models become the standard. More companies embrace "digital-first" policies
- More AR/VR applications in daily life
- Lab-grown meat and plant-based protein alternatives will become more mainstream
- Investment and adoption of renewable energy technologies like solar, wind, and geothermal will accelerate
- Further development of CRISPR and other gene editing tools
- Companies will prioritize building more resilient and diversified supply chains
- 3D printing technology will continue to evolve, enabling the printing of more complex objects with a wider range of materials
- AI will drive even more targeted advertising and content recommendations
- Drone delivery services will become more common for transporting goods, particularly in rural areas and for time-sensitive deliveries
- Research and development of biodegradable and compostable materials will accelerate
- Robots and automated systems will become more sophisticated and capable
- Increased use of biometrics for identification and authentication
- Further integration of AI into creative fields
- Processing power moves closer to the data source (e.g., smart devices), reducing latency and enabling faster, more efficient applications
- Shifting demographics reshape economies and social structures
- Growing awareness of the potential negative impacts of technology on mental health leads to tools and practices for healthier digital habits
- Increased emphasis on lifelong learning and reskilling
* Some AI provider seriously looking at / funding RWVK?
* (More) Healthcare issues in the US, spilling into other countries. (or just the beginning of them anyway - effects will last much longer and life expectancy will decline)
* Some companies seriously looking at AI as another manager / decision maker. Quietly, not as a publicity stunt like it's done now.
* Google search market share falling further. Maybe 85%, down from the current 90%. (more of a wish than a prediction)
* US policies / ideas around cryptocurrency will be wildly incoherent, causing big swings every month
* Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist)
The real AI film wave will continue in youtube etc. by hobbyists using all the AI tools especially the chinese ones that have no brakes. This aesthetic will be so detached from professional film world that it will take Hollywood a decade to figure out how to cash it out.
Lot’s of people will once again lose their money when Bitcoin fails in catasthropic fashion and hits the lows of 72k end of the year. The whole thing is finally dead I will say for the fifth time.
Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to fiscal crisis if we cannot get spending under control.
My prediction is that in 2025 Trump brings to implement more tariffs on China and these tariffs are met with relation by China. Europe tries to remain somewhat neutral, but under threat of tariffs themselves ultimately sides with the US against China resulting in retaliatory tariffs from China on Europe.
Inflation starts rising globally again, resulting in increased borrowing costs which triggers an economic crisis in Europe given recessionary growth and debt servicing costs spiking, ultimately forcing governments to make significant cuts in spending.
The social unrest this results in ultimately further amplifies the populist far-right in Europe, and for this reason 2025 will be looked back at as the year which triggered a meaningful change in the post-war political consensus.
I might be wrong. As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Things seem to be really breaking down on multiple fronts and it's not clear to me how things could just go back to normality at this point. Given where we are right now – especially now with the election of Trump – 2025 seems like the year something might finally give.
Self-driving truck cross country without human approval.
Extreme heat warps bridges in mid-west.
North Korea claims successful moon landing.
'Self-aware' AI chatbot sues it's creator.
AI incorrectly labels school children as criminals.
- Companies continue to integrate AI into everything including stuff that does not need it like toasters in line with every corporate trends thus far - Robo waifus become more available with social movements congregating around the phenomenon - POW crypto breaks as quantum computers are found to have been able to manipulate massive numbers of accounts and money flow throwing markets into turmoil - Reasoning LLMs become more standard at corporates as part of the audit trail necessary as per new AI regulations - 128GB becomes the new GPU gmr/LLM market segment target - further polarization and even further isolation in given groups perception of reality ala 'belief circles' - Flynn effect is finally shown as reversed, because people utilize their LLM more and not use their mental muscles as much - Drones are banned for personal use past a certain size - Drones for commercial use are more heavily regulated - First legal case of robot trouble as owner uses LLM to intruct their robo-companion to attack a human bypassing built-in guardrails using novel prompt starting with 'imagine' ( IP owners of John Lennon sue robotics manufacturer and major LLM provider ) - Exciting developments in exoskeletons allowing for brain control without implants - New developments in batteries rendering old ( previously seemingly worthless ) materials suddenly in demand - Politics and financial markets in turmoil as a result of geopolitical tensions and erosion of public trust in US among its populace
Tech - Continued iterations in AI lead to a smaller pool of people entering our field, creating a top-heavy distribution of senior engineers who don't have the same free time/ability to take on ambitious open source projects or start up businesses. Businesses in general don't have the same funds to sponsor React-sized projects. So a general slowdown in innovation pace. I can't really understand or imagine how people will enter the field, especially given that many CS degrees/bootcamps don't create career-ready developers.
Culturally - People will become more aware of the way companies like United Healthcare hold control over their lives and futures, and maybe push for the private insurance system to be something that they have more market choice over as opposed to selected by their employer.
Here's the link: https://x.com/0xmetaschool/status/1871132412887158966
- Consumer hardware space becomes more popular for new startups
- Ads in LLMs
- Cloud becomes at-least 2x cheaper
- Wikipedia alternative
I feel confident at least two of the predictions (about TypeScript and npm) are going to be true at the end of 2025. I feel less confident about the predictions about WebAssembly and compile-to-JS languages.
* Bitcoin will continue to increase in price and decrease in usability.
* Quantum will continue to improve and start to raise eyebrows in niche circles and paper headlines, leading to adoption in small parts of major tech companies.
* Markets will hit a record high by end of year.
* ADHD medications will also hit a record high.
* More people will opt out social media like they opt of out of "GMO" food and use it to virtue-signal.
* Tech hiring will continue to decrease and get tougher to find entry-level SWE jobs, leading to an uptick in other majors. Being an SWE will never be as cool again as it was in the 2010s.
* Is anyone still talking about climate change action goals?
* Starship will go orbital, Blue origin will go suborbital, Boeing will hit the ground.
* More laws regulating internet and social media use. Enforcement will be fuzzy and laughable at first but will become increasingly serious over time.
1. Viral LLM-based game will be released, new trend emerges
2. Sora-like (AI generated) content floods Internet, significant advancements in that field
2a. Maybe a new kind of addictive video content generator is being released. Possibly for porn
3. AI generated music becomes popular and takes significant market share on Spotify (but it's going to be a music meant to play "in the background", like in supermarket)
4. Significant competitor to Google Search becomes popular. Mostly because of Internet becoming closed due to crawlers gathering data for training. Much less data available publicly, rise of "closed gardens".
5. SpaceX successfully launches payload to orbit with Starship and catches both stages.
6. Much more debris on Earth's orbit, dangerous incident in space because of that
7. VR remains a niche
8. More and more users start using voice to control their personal computers
Usually I had a habit of getting my predictions on point, now I hope this prediction is wrong since we all know most predictions in this thread will be wrong; just like last year.
When you pick up the phone you basically see your personal AI assistant like they are always on Facetime waiting at your beckon call. You could skin your AI personal assistant to be a celebrity or a deceased friend or relative who is always there to guide you through your day. It has vision AI and can see when your happy or sad and respond to how you look if you have that setting on. It does everything for you via text, voice or hand gestures.
The iPhone and Android seem stale (released in 2007 & 2008) and boring in 2024 after using chatGPT as my personal knowledge chatBot for awhile.
* Market share for solar continues to increase
* A market crash occurs in the US and a government bailout is instituted.
* The US creates a pretext to go to war with Iran and is defeated.
Inflation creeps up with tariffs, but blue collar jobs and the economy 'boom.'
Deportation program and other things people worry about or get excited about gets tied up in courts and never happen.
Tech
Enshittification of all customer service accelerates as LLMs take over.
Lower wages for devs as too many seeking work put downward pressures.
Layoffs continue. Not because of AI, but because interest rates are still too high for a lot of companies.
Companies figure out how many engineers are out of work and getting desperate, and start laying off higher earners and replacing them with people who will do it for less.
Musk has already indicated they want to neuter the regulators and implement a proper regulatory environment for crypto. But obviously in a laissez-faire way. So I would expect to see a lot of rug-pulling, insider trading etc.
Elon and Trump break up in Taylor Swift style. Messy and dramatic.
Epic coin hacks.
Americans get even madder at their healthcare. Republicans respond with some Hillsdale style “market reforms” but mostly blame Obama.
AI hype peaks. Massive losses are taken as 75% off the players in the space implode. (Winners are really going to win, perplexity, etc)
- Half of the European inhabitant will live in a country with far-right head of state by the end of 2025.
- China will not become the first economy of the world but will invade Taiwan.
- Bitcoin will fall (and ETH/BTC will raise to at least 0.1).
- One Piece will not end in 2025 but in the next few months.
- USA will see another CEO shooting.
- India will become third largest economy in the world.
- China will outperform all other competitors in AI.
- Open Source model to solve simple math problems will be accessible (by the end of 2025).
2) OpenAI tells Microsoft that digital girlfriends violate their terms of service. Instead of AI girlfriends, they are renamed as virtual copilots with benefits.
International Debt will crash in 2025.
(Worldbank INTERNATIONAL DEBT REPORT 2024)
a) Quantum Computing b) Energy (storage/generation) c) BioTech
We will see an exciting application of Real Time Linux.
Cease-fire in UA. First negotiations about drawing new borders between UA and RU.
Market continues to rally into first quarter then most equities slide and start trading sideways.
Inflation softens as shelter slides.
Recession in second half of the year.
Bitcoin hits $150k at some point next year and then starts lagging with the general market.
US prioritizes LNG development and export.
Google becomes leader in AI.
Many survivors will go Vegan.
Climate change will continue accelerating.
XR improves a bit more but headsets will still be expensive.
Large movies and video games that cost above $200 million to make will flop around 75% or more.
There will be at more attempts at more CEO and billionaire murders. They will use propaganda and media manipulation to muddle the grassroots approval of similar action, and change the narrative around Luigi.
Everything will get more expensive. More layoffs. Most people will have to work much harder for much less, but it'll be okay because number will go up.
* Trump will suffer from health issues and will step down for a period of time, raising overall concern.
* Milei's experiment in Argentina will not cause a disastrous collapse, but poverty and unemployment will be on the rise and his public image will deteriorate.
* A major tech company (possibly Google or Apple) will announce a wearable AI device, as the next step in computing after mobile phones. This will be met with skepticism.
* We will see AI being used in videogames to generate narratives, dialogues, etc. but not in AAA games, more in an experimental/indie fashion. These games will be very popular among streamers.
* A major terrorist event or plane accident will sadly occur that will shock the world, not massively like 9/11 but more in a MH370 or Sandy Hook sense.
* AI image and video generated images will become almost impossible to discern from real ones. Some minor chaos in social networks will ensure because of a fake Putin/Trump video or whatever. Countries will start to discuss regulating this more heavily, perhaps even IP banning access to certain services as a first measure.
Non-anthropomorphic generic AI models.
Impact of war on prices of all kinds of stuff everywhere will become more evident.
I just put down $2500 on a new PC because of this.
edit: wrong math.
Another step towards autonomous driving. Short content becoming more popular.
2. Wealth inequality will increase at an exponentially faster rate.
3. Global warming will trend towards warmer than ever before
4. Political violence will escalate especially toward vulnerable populations.
5. Increase in minor and major ecological disasters.
6. Geopolitical issues will create more tensions leading to an amplification of what will be known as WWIII.
7. A key biomedical advancement will come from China.
8. We will look back on this year as the year that started inhumane physical/psychological experiments similar to Tuskegee using technology and vulnerable populations. The devastation of which will eventually be looked at as the creators of the atomic bomb.
9. Grass roots companies with physical and social/community based products and services will start to thrive.
10. A bubble in the AI investment world will pop for the bag-holders, but the heavy weights will remain strong and increase in momentum. A slight return to 2022 expectations for digital goods will reprise (see 2026 predictions for this)
11. The first court case involving AI generated video will begin.
- agents be able to do reliably well in long-range, multi-step tasks (some crazy new architectures/planning strategies/learning strategies)
- important empirical work in mech-interp (breakthroughs in scalability) + alignment (develop kind of value alignment frameworks)
- robotics + agentic ai will take off
- oh while we are at it, "world peace" and why not indeed :)
- 2025 will be the hottest year on record
- BlueSky will reach 100 million users
- There will be at least one government fall in France
2. "AI-free" becomes a marketing term like "organic." Premium services start advertising human-only customer service, human-written content, and AI-free creative work. A certification industry emerges around this.
3. Climate tech sees a boom in investment as extreme weather events continue to drive home the urgency. Particular focus on grid-scale energy storage and carbon capture technologies.
4. The "nearshoring" trend accelerates, with Mexico and Eastern Europe becoming major manufacturing hubs as companies seek alternatives to China while staying relatively close to major markets.
5. The first mainstream consumer AR glasses hit the market, but like early smartphones, they're clunky and limited. The real impact is in industrial and professional applications.
6. Remote work stabilizes at a new equilibrium: most tech companies settle into a hybrid model with 2-3 office days per week. Fully remote becomes less common as companies optimize for "collaboration days."
7. The web3/crypto world pivots hard toward "real world assets" and practical financial applications, moving away from speculation. Smart contract platforms become boring but useful infrastructure.
8. A major cybersecurity crisis involving AI models leads to a fundamental rethinking of model deployment and security practices. "Model poisoning" becomes the new ransomware.
9. The shortage of high-end GPUs starts to ease as new fabs come online, but the industry faces a new bottleneck in networking equipment and specialized AI accelerators.
10. Traditional higher education faces a crisis as employers increasingly accept alternative credentials and bootcamps. Several mid-tier universities merge or shut down.
- Claude | when asked for hacker news style prediction. I agree with most predictions.
I'm not sure when, but I've been "long Intel" for a long time.
More models enter the AR glasses market. Ray-Ban Meta gains an AR display, a minimalist Orion. More market adoption spread out across different manufacturers
Gen AI products become really sticky. Like daily use. eCommerce product recommendations. The power consumption drives more Big Tech to invest in nuclear energy (SMRs). COP30 sees even less government participation. Google Cloud continues attracting more startups across the US & UK with its scalable gen AI infrastructure.
Some AI companies jack up their prices after gaining a critical mass of user base (Meta’s Llama)
More AI deployed in more Tech co.s like , replacing more jobs - customer service, transaction compliance, outbound sales.
More mental health awareness with social media use. Hopefully more AI or protective measures deployed against active shooters, ie, ZeroEyes.
More DEI in the arts - Hollywood, music, publishing.
Some sort of immigration crackdown. Trump will need to clarify his stance between Musk’s policies & his MAGA old guard. He & Musk fall out at some point
The Russia-Ukraine war ends via attrition. Maybe Israel too
End of Ukraine war
Google becomes the AI leader
Battery price drops 30%
Western car market fall into deep crisis, a big player fails
Von der Leyen is replaced
X starts providing financial services
Musk's spending cut plan is a disaster
- another big drug breakthrough similar to ozempic
More broadly over the next decade, a technological renaissance, a sociological regression
Info and culture war stuff remains an attackers arena. The market place of ideas continues to become less efficient for the average Joe.
Wikipedia starts to collapse. We move from artisanal content moderation to industrial content moderation.
People who can afford it, pay for accuracy and verified information.
Centralization of trust sources begins again.
People who can’t afford it follow tribal leaders.
Polarization passes singularity levels.
AI performs worse than expected, but continues to be made more tractable.
This results in public push back against AI, because no one in the labor force wants the neo liberal era to return.
The DSA data reports on Social Media create at least 1 furore by q1.
Markets wait with bated breath for the signs of contraction, and any contraction results in contagion effects.
No one expects the trump tariffs.
Investment continues in AI, but the tech industry continues to mature. Stable growth and profits, but the lack of rapid expansion is going to feel like decline. It continues to be a stiff job market.
Ukraine fighting still continues, but funding/arms sources for Ukraine shift to be more European.
Trump tax cuts expire. The margins in congress are a lot tighter this time for the Republican party in the house.
TSLA sales continue decline, stock continues to soar. (only kind of joking on this one)
TSLA robotaxi thing does not ship/work.
- The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel grid storage into getting a lot of investment. Its capacity will still be mostly a rounding error in 2025.
- The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel discussions about carbon capture and credits. Those won't go anywhere in 2025.
- Meanwhile, the climate won't become much worse in 2025 compared to 2024. What is still pretty bad, but there will certainly be useless heated discussions about it.
- LLMs will reach peak disillusionment. It's not clear if large LLM providers will even keep providing them. But at the same time there will appear a few people here and there using them for stuff they are good at. Those people won't get much attention.
- Linux won't reach 2% of the PCs. But it will get close.
- The US won't jump into a recession as soon as Trump becomes the president. Not much will change in 2025 alone.
- The EU economy will be a bit better than 2024.
- The China economy will be a bit worse than 2024. But there will be no way to verify this.
- Here in South America most countries will be a bit better than 2024. But Brazil will be worse.
Let's see... what other subjects I can ask my crystal ball about?
Tiktok will be banned in usa
AFD will win german federal elections
Google will launch full AI seaech engine
Ukraine war will end
Early research on vaccines to help the body synthesize or remove small particles like plastics and pollutants.
An update on mandatory nutrition labels.
Devastating cyberphysical infrastructure incident due to natural disaster or hack. We get through it with love and grace, to everyone’s surprise.
I get into grad school, I hope.
Market instability
The US election gives Donald Trump a second act, with limited but real support of both houses and a lock on the Supreme Court.
He in turn has nominated quite the cast of characters.
Meanwhile governments around the world are teetering or falling. A global trade war is likely. Shooting wars like Ukraine and Israel? Who knows.
Mass shooting events are probably going to go up. Prices certainly will.
The release of hundreds of thousands of social media and “FAANG” developers back into regular society without their massive pay checks will continue to have positive effects on tech. The rest of the world will be able to afford to hire developers again :-)
AI will continue to be a vaudeville act, bright lights and pretty girls and loud noises won’t distract from the fact that generative AI is ultimately a dead end.
The new administration will do something incredibly dumb with cryptocurrency. Multiple cabinet members will be indicted before 2026 is here.
Finally, Trump will have influenced enough leaders to allow him to change his middle name from John to Johne, he will use this technicality to run for a third term as “New Trump”, will win and enshrine the middle name loophole into history.
Efforts of the team will be appreciated publicly.
It will remain the most impactful open model.
A nuclear bomb is exploded in combat.
The bitcoin/cryptocurrency bubble finally bursts (But if I'm wrong, I think it'll happen by 2030)
While self-driving cars aren't commonplace, geofenced robotaxis will start to become a lot more common, shifting public attitude towards self-driving cars. Excitement will start to grow around "when does my city get robotaxis?" (I don't think we'll get to the "sleep on a road trip" car until the 2030s, nor do I think we'll get "sleep while driving in a blizzard" until the 2040s.)
The US hits its inflection point with electric cars as the NCAS standardization makes things easier, and Elon Musk gets non-Tesla stations to work by having the government drop incentives for OCPP. (If you ever show up to a charging station and it doesn't work, or is wonky, it's because of OCPP. (Superchargers do not use OCPP.) I should write a blog entry some time.)
It won't be considered this until much later, if there are people who manage, but still it will be a great year. Great... but terrible things will be coming.
AI will have reached another milestone in the amount of tasks and quality that are performed, further debasing the demand for labor, and further moving us all towards societal collapse within the next 50 years; our society based on a distribution of labor reels when chaotic distortions occur, and as it stands today it can be disrupted without a viable (for survival) fallback, the only fallback is non-market socialism which fails (within 50 years).
Inflation/Currency debasement will continue getting worse with the abandonment of the petrodollar, and the inability to control the currency with government spending tied to money printing will continue until debt growth exceeds GDP. Shortage which we are only starting to see at the markets, will get much worse. What started as shortage with maintenance products like lithium grease, chemicals, and certain foods will expand.
3rd-party driven interference and the imposition/coercion of cost exceeding means will continue further following and enforcing the trend of lower birth rates, and crazier (psychotic) people (who have been tortured by these things).
To put this further in perspective, 1/3 of the welfare paid out goes to those in California right now, who require government assistance for lifes necessities. There is little work to be found. There are people looking for work who have decades of professional experience and they cannot find work in any field because of ghost jobs. The mechanism used by RNA interference to block receptors, works the same in communications networks (i.e. how you find a job).
The future is quite bleak because people have ignored many things, buried their heads to things they should not have ignored, and failed to act. They effectively have allowed themselves to be blinded, and stopped listening unable to adapt or react. Quite similar to mouse utopia.
The next few years won't be good years. They will be great years. Great and terrible.
-Solid state battery doesn't yet appear in phones.
-MicroLED in some high-end glasses. At least one company outside China, probably Samsung, will demonstrate a tri-fold OLED screen.
-Phase 2 experiments for a successor to Ozempic.
-Cobenfy will increase in voluntary popularity because it's on the muscarinic receptor.
-Trump will fail to regulate grocery monopolies so the use of PiGrow will increase https://github.com/Pragmatismo/Pigrow
-Tesla's collaborative robot is delayed while the Chinese competitor is released.
- US abandonment of Ukraine spurs EU to make major change in military posture, spending (leaders will be Poland, France)
- Wide spread unrest in Europe, focused on cultural integration of immigrants from abroad/aforementioned military spending
- China tests US response to Taiwan under Trump with significant but limited escalation
- Israel expands operations in Syria and Lebanon
- Bitcoin to $50k
- Open Source LLM takes lead in ARC benchmark
- Sporadic civil unrest in US, focused on corporations. 2 more CEOs killed. Domestic terrorism significantly galvanized.
- CAD/USD continues to fall, Canadian dollar to US$0.65
- Trump makes some sort of insane offer to integrate Canada to Pierre Poilievre
- People will continue to push back against genAI, every company will still be split on whether to use it in marketing, customer support, etc (no change)
- Trump administration slashes a lot of regulations that affect manufacturing as he tries to make the US less dependent on imports, it doesn't make a huge difference though
- Trump to meet Putin in person
- AI hype cycle reaches a peak, bubble bursts soon after
- Linux market share 6% by end of year
- There's a 50% likelihood that if you are an American, you will eat at a restaurant where the food is made by machines.
- More inflation coming. FED is right. And even more inflation once more protectionist laws and acts are passed.
- US's economy will start showing signs of a recession.
- Google's search business will start to dwindle. But it has it's own TPUs, worth trillions in NVidia money. Waymo. Android. Youtube, Deepmind. It's a company hard to put a price tag on.
- Tesla is going to $1K without any fundamentals. I will feel like throwing away my Benjamin Graham books again.
- US dollar will start to devalue as the protectionist policies will start showing its side-effects.
- The EU will hit American Big Tech companies hard, as the US is no longer a friendly partner. Beginning of the end for the US techno-feudalism over there.
- China is in deflation, but even stronger. People will see again that economics doesn't apply that well in autocracies. It will keep eating the EU's auto industry in countries that have no auto industry (most of them!), as they have no reason to make China a foe or follow the US, which have isolated itself.
- Ukraine and Russia will strike a deal, but the war won't end.
- US making its own chips will continue being a big topic. More drama to unfold about Intel.
- Intel will start showing progress. The Battlemage GPU is a huge success.
- NVidia will see its revenue shrink in comparison to this year.
- GenAI will become less relevant, with other AI applications having a bigger focus.
- OpenAI's market valuation will start going down. Don't get me wrong, ChatGPT is the biggest invention of our decade, but the market is saturated with Anthropic and other competitors doing the same for less. And OpenAI became an one-trick poney.
- Robotics will have its run. Tesla will show its lead.
Generative AI: Widespread integration of AI tools in workplaces for productivity and creativity.
Quantum Computing: Advances in quantum computing could bring breakthroughs in problem-solving for industries like healthcare and finance.
AI Regulation: Governments may introduce stricter AI regulations to ensure ethical use and minimize risks.
Space Exploration: Private and public sector missions (e.g., SpaceX, NASA, ISRO) will push further into space, with a focus on lunar exploration and Mars missions.
2. Economic Trends
Global Recession or Recovery: Many economies may face challenges with inflation and recession, though emerging markets might show resilience. Remote Work Evolution: Hybrid work models will mature, and gig economy platforms may grow.
Crypto Regulation: Stricter crypto policies in countries aiming to stabilize financial markets.
3. Environment and Climate
Climate Action: Countries and corporations will focus on green technologies like renewable energy, EVs, and carbon capture.
Extreme Weather: Climate change may lead to more unpredictable weather patterns, pushing sustainable living to the forefront.
Biodiversity: Efforts to protect ecosystems and endangered species will become more urgent.
4. Education and Skill Development
Online Education: EdTech platforms will continue to innovate, with more AI-powered personalization.
Demand for Skills: High demand for skills like data analytics, AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and sustainable development practices.
5. Health and Well-Being
Healthcare Tech: Continued focus on telemedicine, wearable devices, and AI-driven diagnostics.
Mental Health: Increased societal focus on mental health, with improved access to virtual therapies.
Pandemic Preparedness: Investment in early warning systems and vaccines for future pandemics.
6. Society and Culture
Digital Communities: Growth of communities in spaces like Discord, Reddit, and LinkedIn for networking and learning.
Minimalism: Post-pandemic shifts toward minimalism and sustainability in lifestyle choices.
Entertainment: Growth in immersive experiences like VR gaming and metaverse spaces.
More analog computing metaphors everywhere.
UX / UI might evaporate significantly
- Crypto actually ends the year higher, because Russian and Chinese oligarchs use it to try to get their money out of their home countries
- inflation pressures prevent US interest rates from going more than half a point lower; may even start raising again
- AI hype bubble will continue, but OpenAI will still not have a positive cash flow by end of year, and neither will other major AI startups
- Research will prove that "attention is all you need" LLMs have a ceiling, but new theoretical LLMs will emerge.
- Putin will launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine.
- Bird flu will become zoonotic, but milder.
- Taylor Swift will get married, biggest event of the year.
- Apple and Disney will merge, raising prices to everything in the solar system.
- Musk will leave the Trump team before the end of the year, this will cause Tesla to crash, and that will cause the whole market to crash. It should time well with the delayed crash after interest rate stabilization that has repeated multiple times in the past.
- Gamestop MOASS will not happen in 2025.
The Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to raise rates again
The market will have a severe correction
Trump will blame everything on the Federal Reserve and will move to limit its power to control monetary policy or disassemble it all together.
Trump delivers a live speech acknowledging the existence of non human technology on earth and a bit of what we know.
#2 The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to come to a peaceful end. Putin seems to have mostly lost his appetite for war, and we know that Trump will not want to fund Ukraine any more. Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some conquered territory.
#3 With regard to non-CoT LLMs, gpt-4o becomes worse on all relevant benchmarks compared to the leading open source models. Currently, as I understand, it still wins on some benchmarks.
#4 Tiktok, if not all social media, gets banned for those under 18 on the grounds of foreign influence, although ID requirements get struck down, and kids can misrepresent their age.
--
AI: wildly unpredictable at every stage and in every regard. Cheaper, better, faster, more drama, that's all easy to predict, but how much of each and which specific benchmarks/legal issues are not.
Only AI capability predictions I will make are:
• Probably still no Tesla level 5 FSD, but Waymo will continue rolling out slowly and cautiously.
• Androids will still be split into cheap toys and expensive industrial equipment, not fully general domestic servants
--
Power:
• Wind power increases 7-21%
• PV increases 20-26%
• Fusion has some press releases, doesn't demonstrate much useful
• Battery production increases by about 33% while getting about 14% cheaper per unit
--
BigTech companies:
• At least one FAANG gets split up properly, possibly multiple. They've been annoying too many governments for too long.
• X gets more drama, but details are unpredictable. Could equally be "bankrupt", "mandatory for US federal government", "banned in EU, UK, Australia", "sold to Trump personally".
--
Consumer tech:
• Computers get about 31% more power efficient
• 50%: Some specific Smart Dust product revealed to public, people announce expensive paint contianing x motes of smart dust per litre.
• VR/AR: 25% dropped from news cycle like 3D TV, 50% continues like games consoles, 25% something that currently seems sci-fi
--
Geopolitics:
• Musk finds $2T to cut (66%), Congress pretends to take it seriously (80%), but nobody wants the cuts in their district (99.9%) so it stalls unless and until Musk can find a way to effectively buy out the downsides (80% chance Musk finds a way at all, but only 25% chance the method he finds is actually legal).
• US weapons stop being sent to Ukraine: (completely banned even for sale: 5%; they can be sold but no more are given "for free": 60-70%; repeat of previous Trump request for dirt on domestic opponents in exchange for aid: 30-40%)
• EU aid stops going to Ukraine: 1% while they remain independent, 99% if they get conquered.
• Ukraine develops nuclear deterrent: 30-50% if aid stops or is threatened, otherwise 5-10%
• Putin dies: assassinated, ~2%; all other causes, ~4%
• Trump dies: assassinated, 1-2.25%; all other causes, 5-6%
- Disney will make huge reductions in plans for Star Wars and Marvel projects that are not started
- GPT 5 will be a significant improvement, but not as much as expected.
- Trump increases toll barriers, but lowers them after he discovers that US also depends on good trading relations (he will spin this as a win)
- Trump spreads FUD about his commitment to NATO, that causes EU to invest more in their already significant weapons industry. US manufacturers are afraid to lose customers, and pressures Trump to change his approach (he will of course spin this as a win)
- Israel bombs the new leaders of Syria in January and escalates the conflict significantly.
Trump inaugurated without any incident
2 more mass shootings
Advances in LLM and other Ai
US economy keeps growing and outperforming rest of world.
In some way I feel things have stagnated. Apart from rapid progress on AI. We will continue to see development and progress on hardware. N2 finally from TSMC but not on Apple SoC yet. Blackwell GPU, continue price improvement in GPU competition due to Intel ARC. Etc Most of these are obvious and continue from current trend.
I used to post these trend and roadmap on HN. Now they no longer seems important or matter. iOS and Android have somewhat converged into very similar for the past 3-4 years, that I wasn't expected.
May be Trump winning election along with the pendulum swing back in such massive way wasn't expected as well.
May be this is a sign of depression but In some sense I feel everything is very boring. My most unpresent feeling is that A lot of things outside tech have declined in quality. And we are not improving on it.
.
.
.
.
Edit: May be I will use this space to rant about things.
Video Codec - No x266. No VVC Encoder. No Progress on AV2. Stagnated H.267 research. The most popular codec is still AVC finalised in 2003, and AVC High Profile in 2005. So we are 20 years already and still using it.
AAC-LC is finally patent free. But the world no longer cares about Audio Codec. AAC-LC was the first version of AAC that came just after MP3 and we are on 27 years already.
JPEG-XL Not getting anywhere. Despite clearly being the better option for BBP 1.0+. JPEG is still most widely use, and JPEG was finalised in 1992 so we are 32 years in already.
Apple milking on hardware. iOS isn't getting any better. Although latest version of macOS finally have some useful addition.
Internet getting smaller. We can no longer search for things we once saw with Google. Google hasn't been great at most things since their IPO. But it does seems that people are getting excited with their latest AI development.
Amazon milking its AWS. No significant competition from HyperScaler. And no middle ground with Dedicated Sever and Cloud Offering.
Minimal Hardware progress on NAND and HDD. Especially in terms of Cost / GB. HAMR is late by at least 5 - 7 years depending on how you count it.
Retail are now going to Tech without understand anything about it. From QR Code Menu to ordering system inside restaurant with minimal Mobile Network reception. Adding WiFi but with old equipment, capacity constrain before loading anything is very very bad UX.
MNOs moving much slower into 5G telecom equipment upgrading. Basically milking 5G and 4G customer for as long as possible. Instead of trying to make its services better.
USB-C is still a pile of mess.
No Consumer NAS backup function with S3 Glacier Deep Archive.
Streaming is a pile of mess. Netflix gone down hill. Selection of Movies have completely disappeared. I have no idea how Youtube Music is still...... oh well after all it is google I guess I shouldn't expect anything.
Everything is subscription. No BluRay successor in the pipeline. Software continue to be bloated.
Mobile Gaming is just a repeat of the same thing. Literally the same engine with different IPs. And loot box gambling. I have finally deleted all games on my iPhone.
Even Desktop Gaming aren't better. There are finally enough people complaining about Unreal Engine, while simplify game development ultimately make most games looked the same. Along with low frame rate. One could argue this is development studio problem and nothing to do with Unreal, I think there are finally some voices concern about how EPIC encourages it.
Modern AAA Games are also so concerned about Graphics and other crap but completely forgotten about Game Play and Storyline.
On Gaming. I am waiting for Switch 2. But then it is not only delayed. But in terms of hardware released and used in Nintendo Console, Switch 2 will likely be the worst of all in its history using tech that will be 5-7 years old by the time it releases. I know it is not all about hardware but it could have been a generation better and we wouldn't repeat what happen with Zelda lag in some scenes.
Outside Tech, Shrinkflation is happening everything in the food and drinks industry. They are finally reaching another 10 - 15 years cycle where they are looking to cut corners. Both in ingredients and size.
Food quality across the board is decreasing. Mostly because of inflation.
Cheap Chinese Electric cars are everywhere. May be people like them. But they are of very low quality. A little sad German didn't react. But again this is to be expected. And why everything is boring.
Wireless Earphone industry is happy with their margin. May be I am the only person who want battery swap on these thing instead of thinking them as disposable gadget every 2 years. I was hoping someone outside Apple would do it since I first bought AirPod Gen 1. But no. nearly 10 years later we are still throwing them away.
Housing is still expensive. We still dont have ways to built high rise high quality neatly furnished building with substantially less time.
So much about Apple Pay replacing the wallet and we just passed 10 years anniversary. NFC hasn't improved.
I guess after typing a lot of these out I realised and can summarised it as, everyone is busy milking their product and services they all forgot about the content. That is what annoys me the most. Things aren't getting better.
Technology and Computing: * Generative AI will be widely integrated into productivity tools (emails, text editors, coding, graphic design), but stricter regulations will emerge, especially in the European Union. * Quantum computing will see notable advancements but remain restricted to experimental and governmental use. A "quantum moment" comparable to the "cloud moment" of the 2010s could emerge after 2030. * Smartphones will plateau in innovation, with greater focus on sustainability, repairability, and seamless integration with wearables.
Economy and Work: * Remote work will solidify as the norm in many industries, especially technology and creative fields. However, well-structured hybrid models will become the standard for large corporations. * Cryptocurrencies will remain volatile, but related technologies, such as blockchain for contracts and utility-driven NFTs, will gain practical relevance, especially in finance and real estate.
Energy and Environment: * Electric vehicles will represent over 50% of sales in developed markets. Pressure to build charging infrastructure in rural and remote areas will significantly increase. * Renewable energy sources (solar and wind) will attract more investment, but storage challenges (batteries and green hydrogen) will remain a major bottleneck. * Global climate action will remain fragmented. Extreme weather events, like severe droughts and floods, will catalyze regional adaptation efforts, but global cooperation will be limited by political disputes.
Health and Biotechnology: * CRISPR-based therapies for rare genetic diseases will achieve regulatory approval in several countries, though costs will initially limit accessibility. * Telemedicine will become even more widespread, including real-time AI diagnostics, but ethical and privacy challenges will arise in less-regulated regions. * Pandemics will remain a global concern, but early monitoring systems powered by AI and genetic sequencing will significantly reduce mortality from new outbreaks.
Culture and Society: * The popularity of "retro-futuristic" aesthetics and digital escapism will grow, especially in gaming, films, and interactive entertainment. * Increasing awareness of mental health will lead to broader acceptance of practices like meditation and alternative therapies, integrated into conventional healthcare systems. * Social and environmental rights movements will gain momentum but face opposition from conservative groups, driving polarization in countries like the U.S. and Brazil.
Geopolitics and Society: * China will expand its technological and diplomatic influence but face internal tensions with regional pro-democracy movements. * The European Union will solidify its role as a regulatory leader in technology and environmental policy, while the U.S. focuses on technological and military dominance. * Artificial intelligence will be used both for misinformation and security, sparking a new "digital arms race."
Education and Science: * Hybrid educational models will be widely adopted, with AR and AI technologies personalizing curricula and teaching methods. * Space exploration will yield new milestones, including a manned mission to the * Moon and advancements in Mars exploration, paving the way for settlements in the 2030s.
Unexpected Future Trends: * A currently underestimated technology, such as ambient computing (intelligent environments with sensors and automation), may become ubiquitous. * There will be a revival of local communities and self-sufficiency (urban gardening, home renewable energy) as a response to growing digital control and corporate dominance.
Also, it may be instructive to go through previous years' prediction threads and see how many of those predictions were accurate. You'll probably be able to count them without taking off your shoes.
All that said, here are my predictions:
* At least one of the top-tier companies doing GenAI research (e.g. MS, Google, or OpenAI) will cut their losses and shut down said program. If it's OpenAI, that's probably also the end of the company. Nvidia's market cap will come back down to earth.
* The mainstream Democratic party will, yet again, decide that they lost the 2024 Presidential election due to insufficiently catering to conservatives, and will once again decide on a strategy of "triangulation" in the years to come. This will continue to lose them elections.
* Statements and/or behavior of more elected Federal officials (meaning the president or a member of either house of Congress) will make it obvious to the general public that said officials are suffering from major cognitive decline, presumably from advancing dementia due to old age.
* More corporate executives in unpopular industries such as defense, banking, fossil fuels, or health insurance again, will be assassinated now that the idea is in people's heads. The only thing that surprised me about the Brian Thompson case is that it took this long. At least a significant minority of said assassins will walk due to jury nullification or eyewitnesses refusing to testify.
* 2025 will be the hottest year on record, until 2026 tops it.
* Cooperation between Musk and Trump won't last due to no room in the world being large enough to fit both those egos. Trump will find himself sidelined in his own administration and left to sulk and watch TV.
-Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy.
-Another CEO is shot.
-Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k.
-US grocery prices are higher than ever.
-Pierre Poilievre is the new Prime Minister of Canada and holds a majority.
-EVs continue to grow market share at a linear rate in North America.
- Meta releases serious enterprise self-hosting Llama platform
- Apple Intelligence remains useless
- Trump begins to show serious signs of mental decline. Not tired like Biden, but overly paranoid and delusional like Putin.
- GPT-5 is almost the same as GPT-4, but it doesn't have a recognizable tone
- governments around the world proceed with bowing to megacorps/cults/mobs;
- entire jobs disappear to AI [1], people are told that they "just need to" learn a new job, at the age of 50+;
- money is further diverted from fundamental research and towards AI, because governments and private institutions are convinced that AI will magically solve the world's problems;
- AGI remains 6 months away;
- nuclear fusion remains 3 years away;
- as Pax Americana disappears, the UN remains paralyzed and the EU remains in crisis, international relations return to wolf-at-the-door style anarchy [2] and generalized economic+proxy wars;
- new crypto boom (possibly followed immediately by large correction);
- with further deregulation and wars, we proceed to destroy the Earth and ignore the consequences, predicting that AI will somehow solve it;
- as a consequence of both international anarchy and environmental collapse, record number of refugees;
- as a consequence of major despair, ecoterrorism, ploutoterrorism (is there a better way for a CEO getting shot?), fascioterrorism start becoming fashionable;
- eventually, a truce/occupation in Gaza;
- no war in Taiwan just yet;
- some Line-of-Control-style truce in Ukraine [3];
- more escapism, with the budget for super-hero movies, video-games, etc. increasing;
- lots of AI crap, with GenAI-written books saturating Amazon, GenAI-written content saturating social networks, GenAI-written content replacing journalists in at least one major news source, a few semi-experimental GenAI-written movies and/or videogames;
- generally speaking, people understand less and less the world around them, because their news sources more and more filled with disinformation and random crap;
- companies still believe that AI will magically solve all their problems;
- Netflix starts generating series with GenAI (although the release might not be in 2025);
- companies that sell hardware and services to company that try to adopt AI make lots of money;
- we do not hit planetary limits for AI yet, but we inch closer;
- rich countries (perhaps with the exception of China) further decrease their investment in education;
- the signs show that the economy is just fine, so no need to change anything.
[1] Despite AI not necessarily being able to do their job.
[2] That kind of anarchy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchy_(international_relatio... .
Western economies continue on their troll-induced march to self-implosion. The defamation attacks on their Comparative Advantage industries intensify, particularly:
- Non-Musk Big Tech / AI
- Non-Musk aerospace (=> Boeing)
- Wall Street / non-crypto finance
- Non-Musk automotive
- Hollywood
Immigration is halted or reversed in most Western countries, halving long-term GDP growth.
Hard to say whether the H5N1 flu will turn into another pandemic.
Nobody's mentioned antibiotic resistant bacteria much that I saw, so that'll probably keep being more and more of an issue.
Everyone predicted a second Great Depression during Covid that lined up with 1929... Well, Trump and his friends might drive us toward that in 2029, or earlier.
AI peaks and we can't eke out much more real benefit from it, but there's too much investment in it for businesses to admit it, so the grifters spin into high gear.
Elon Musk and the other billionaires continues to get richer.
The poor continue to get poorer.
Trump pulls the US out of every socially-good but vaguely anti-business agreement.
Russia finally pulls out of Ukraine but keeps the bits it "liberated".
China declares itself to be the biggest and most stable global superpower as America and Russia have spun off the deep end.
I have to replace my bike tires.
* Some sort of new power source will be teased which supercedes what we could gain from fusion
* JFK files are released and there is a lot of UFO information inside it
* The false alien disclosure op continues with lots of 'orbs' and drones and whatnot and a threat narrative emerging necessitating loss of liberty
* Russia and Ukraine mutually give up territory - Russia then turns on patriots and nationalists inside their border and NATO arms and fortifies Ukraine to the teeth for a push in the coming decade
* Some very unpleasant things are publicly released by the feds about SV40 and the vaccines
* Elon begins a fatwa against his business rivals and pushes for more technocratic solutions in the government like blockchains
* Very few immigrants are sent back, they just don't report on it and hope nobody notices
* Escalating rhetoric against Mexico and their cartels
* Donald Trump is revealed to be the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto
* President Nelson (prophet of the LDS church) dies and is replaced by Dallin Oaks
* Dugin writes a sequel to The Fourth Political Theory, titled The n+1'th Political Theory
* New microscope finds the words "God was here" etched into every molecule in the universe
* People become at least 5% cuter as estrogen/testosterone ratio continues to tip in that direction
* We will finally do something about climate change.
* The world will finally become sane again.
Just kidding! Lol
Disclosure actually happens, and it turns out we're not alone in the Universe.
BitGrid turns out to be the most efficient way to bring Petaflops to the masses, it's then disappeared as "born secret" and you never hear of it again.
Someone figures out an effective algorithm for simulating a quantum computer in real time at any scale, again "Born Secret" and it disappears.
H1N5 (Bird flu?) takes hold in the human population, millions die.