Is there an impending stock market crash or world war?

About the next World War, some people said it is already being waged, and some people said it is never going to happen. And some people said that World War 2 never ended.

If you are talking about a "traditional" hot war. I think it is unlikely that it happens in the immediate future (< 5 years). I have thought about the scenarios:

- War and politics are usually intertwined. People wage wars because they cannot fix the internal political squabbles so they wage war to their neighbors.

- So far, the only major player that is waging a traditional hot war is Russia (v.s. Ukraine and other NATO members in certain ways).

- So far, none of the other major players is in a major crisis -- or maybe I should say, they never completely recovered from the last crisis and so far have been prolonging the inevitable with some success. And I don't see a way that such success may suddenly be elusive to them. Both China and the US have internal problems, but so far none is violent enough to even make major reforms.

- The road to destruction, IMO, is always refinement -> reform -> war -> revolution. We are simply not there yet. I think China is at second stage, US is between first and second stage, and EU is sort of in the same place. Only Russia goes to the third stage, albeit with a mediocre show.

Anyway, I don't believe that a world war is impending. Some local wars should be expected, but nothing major except that in the future we will learn in history books that those lead to the inevitable.

I read this[1] a while back and it has stuck with me. There is a huge economy of doomers trying to convince you everything is just about to fall apart and they have some solution that will save you from the uninformed masses.

[1] https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/rich-author-poor-re...

VIX, a measure of S&P 500 implied volatility, is pretty low at 13, so the options market does not anticipate a high probability of a stock market crash, which of course does not rule it out.

Lets examine the major flash points:

Ukraine war won't lead anywhere unless Russia starts to loose and lobs a nuke or European powers decide to get involved directly to save Ukraine. For now its a stalemate.

The destruction of the Gazan Palestinians would also not escalate regionally unless Israel decides to one up and invade Lebanon. Which seems unlikely as America would stop them at the risk of loosing its own standing in the region further.

The Chinese invasion of Taiwan offers the most realistic chance of a World War :) But they have seen the Russian drubbing and know that victory isn't guarantied while defeat might end the Communist party as we know it.

The rest of conflict zones in South Asia, Armenia-Azeri, North-South Korea seem frozen right now.

Read up on the Thucydides Trap and on the Wolfowitz Doctrine first. When you have a good understanding of the ramifications of both, apply that knowledge to the state of the World. Make up your own mind.

In my opinion, the answer is 'Yes' to both your questions. And within the next 3 years at most. When it comes to the 'Goodies' and the 'Baddies', the West are the 'Baddies' in this case.

I'd say there's a great-er probability of a cold war now, but I get my opinions from Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update.

Hard to imagine a resolution to the Korean situation that doesn't lead to a world war.

How soon counts as “impending”?

Yes. For the past 20 years, I’d say

Isn't there always?

Almost certainly. You’ll know by November. As early as August.

Nobody with public knowledge can either say yes or no.

If anyone tells you either yes or no, ask them to show you their financial positions. If they have none, their opinion is pointless.