For example: the recent voice/conversational AI feature included with the GPT-4o release completely steamrolls 100s of startups working on enabling and improving voice conversations with AI.
So how do you know that any idea built on top of OpenAI is future-proof and actually adds value, and IF the goal of OpenAI is to literally create AGI, doesn't this mean all software is redundant?
(brb adding "thought leader" to my resume)
These business are extremely difficult and costly to build because you're pushing at the edges of what's possible and they're also extremely easy to disrupt because it only takes one innovative team to completely erode any advantage you once had.
The only exception to this is if you can use your technological advantage to capture a market, then once you have a dominate market position your continued survival no longer depends solely on your ability to maintain an absolute technological advantage. But even this strategy is risky long-term with companies like Intel and IBM being good examples or how even dominant market players can be disrupted if they continuously fail to keep up with the pace of innovation.
My answer to you is probably not what you want to hear, but in my opinion if you're building a startup like this you should assume you're on limited time. You should only build the startup if you're genuinely passionate about the problem you're solving, and not because you believe what you're describing is a good long-term business opportunity (because it's not).
If you want to build a businesses that isn't likely to be disrupted you should consider doing something more traditional. I highly doubt individuals running landscaping businesses are worried about technological disruption, for example.
Let an LLM be a tool in that mission, but "AI" is not the end goal.
Second, build solutions in that space. Find the niches in that problem space nobody is addressing, or if they're addressing, they don't care as deeply as you do. So many "products" sadly are afterthoughts. Look even at Google Search, supposedly Google's bread and butter, but we see its quality suffering. You need to care _very_ deeply about the space. If you don't care deeply, it's not worth your energy to build the business. Just go get a job in your domain.
Third, think longer term beyond even the current product. Think constantly how you can disrupt yourself to get to the next product that obsoletes your current product. Build a company culture around this idea. Focus not on the last product you built, but how you build a culture for building product to address your company's purpose.
Fourth, when you think about building product - build something _so good_ that it essentially creates a habit among your users. You obsess about the tiniest of interactions in a way that is so brainlessly easy, sticky, addictive, whatever that very few will/can obsess to the same degree, in that domain, to truly build the same level of stickiness.
Finally, as OpenAI gets bigger, and tries to do more, you will find areas where they just don't care enough about a space that you can find a niche for specialized tools. Tools that are too small for them to really obsess about the same level you could. One idea, by way of an example, might be taking voice notes for doctors. Or dictation in general...
Anyway, I'd say stop focusing on "how do I build an AI thing". Stop focusing on building the next Unicorn startup. And just ask yourself - what problem do I care enough about to truly put my skills in service of to build a product?
This is the way of the world. If we're building products that have marginal utility with wrappers then at one or the other point there will be a hit.
Will suggest looking for blue oceans to solve and integrating more than just a single API to build a strong userbase for which you don't have to compete at a later stage.
And by no means I'm saying this is easy. Probably the hardest thing we will ever do in our lives, but if it works out then amazing.
Also, don't fall for the "AGI" hype from ClosedAI. It's a super-marketing term, like their "superalignment" project.
Your business idea should be about solving a problem for your customers. If the way you package and service your solutions saves the customers time and adds value, it doesn't matter what tools you use. The upgrade from hammers to nailguns did not put construction companies out of business.
Even if OpenAI has a ridiculously good voice/conversation set of features, OpenAI is not going to sign a service contract with a small-to-mid size businesses. That is even if that organization had the technological ability to integrate it into their business.
one idea is to not build in a way that you depend on OpenAI. You should build on top of their offering in a way that it is interchangeable with other providers, especially offline local solutions which is something OpenAI being an API first company will not have a strong offering for and where you can demonstrate your value.
> and IF the goal of OpenAI is to literally create AGI, doesn't this mean all software is redundant?
Sort of means all of everything is redundant. :^)
Just build a startup around subscriptions and perishables.
This scenario has played out forever, and resurfaces every time there is a new platform.
In the early days on-disk-compression was an add on, then it became part of DOS. pretty much the same thing happened with Apple (sherlock), Windows (zip), web (netscape) and I could go on.
The underlying thread here is that when you hook on to a platform, and make a living "making thar platform better" you are in competition with the platform maker.
Since the platform maker is improving their product all the time their overlap with you happens.
In one sense what are they supposed to do? Ignore improving it because someone else is doing it?
As a rule, the newer the tech, the more obvious the improvement, the more likely you are to be Sherlocked. (Yep, this effect even has a name.)
The fact that "100s of startups" saw voice as a value-add means that it's obvious, and widely useful, so (duh) thats obvious to OpenAI too.
Let me put it another way- if you are building for "lots of users" then expect that to be done.
Assuming you don't have MS or Apple or Google or OpenAI resources, assume you shouldn't be targeting "millions" of users. If you're targeting something only a few thousand people care about then you're a lot safer. OpenAI is less likely to want to add a feature that say only helps left-handed, bald, pensioners than one that benefits "everyone".
Don't be picking the low-hanging fruit. Find something that's waaaay more niche and hard to get to.
Unfortunately yes.
Most of the traffic is hype and curiosity driven.
This is the whole point of the bubble.