What's Next After AGI?

Question

In just one year we have come from chatgpt-3 to gpt-4o. And there's massive difference between the two. Going by how competiton, investments and exponential growth happens with technology, what's next for humans once AGI is achieved by 2025 end?I mean let's be honest. Government wouldn't launch UBI. Almost all of the jobs will get replaced by this, including physical labout ones... what jobs will be left?I might be sounding too pessimistic here, but frankly, Im not the only one. We try to convince ourselves that this will hit a wall and slowdown... but, what if it doesn't? What will happen to society?

yawpitch · Accepted Answer

The assumption that the trajectory of LLMs leads to an actual AGI is, frankly, ludicrously optimistic. The main thing these things should be demonstrating to us is that language learning, alone, is neither equivalent to, nor a reliable signal of, general intelligence. A myna bird with orders of magnitude more long term memory does not a destroyer of humanity make, unless a human with something considerably less than general intelligence decides to hand control of a nuclear arsenal to that bird.
That said, the arrival of an actual AGI on the scene would be roughly the same as the arrival of another actual NGI… we most likely wouldn’t recognize it, wouldn’t know how to communicate with it, and would both misunderstand it and attempt to enslave and exploit it to our primarily economic ends, if we didn’t kill it reflexively because we are considerably more governed by our emotions than we are by what we presume is our intellect. And that’s assuming an LLM trained to and beyond some magical cognition emergence event horizon with the sum total of human internet-accessible verbiage didn’t kill itself instantaneously, which would be the most likely outcome of waking up to human-level general intellect with neither a body or the emotions required to understand the vast majority of the human-level “knowledge” such a model possessed.
In other words I don’t think it would do much to human society other than prove that humans aren’t as smart as they think they are.

qp11 · Answer

Its not going to be achieved by 2025. There are lots of issues piling up. Like a giant mountain range in fact, if you talk to people behind the curtain.
The hype machine is not going to advertise these things, and they do the opposite to stay in the Center of Attention given the Attention Wars unfolding. So they immediately latch on to whatever people want to talk about and act as if they are thinking about it and working on it, even when they aren't.
They Hype up every thing they know will capture Attention, cause they have no other option while taking on Google/Amazon/Apple/Meta et al who can easily out spend them.
The total attention available in the world is limited and finite, while "mind blowing" Content has exploded way past that limit long ago. So to get limited attention of investors, customers, prospective employees, govts (which everyone else is furiously competing for) there are no other moves in this game of Attention Capture everyone is trapped in. They are doing a good job capturing Attention. Even Trump knows how to do it. But as we have seen with Trump it will blow up in your face as contradictions build up with time.

fastengineer · Answer

In the future we will all become Baristas, we have had advanced coffee making machines for years but there are still Baristas working everywhere, that job is future safe.

beardyw · Answer

ASI presumably. (S for super)