When will the AI bubble burst?

I'm convinced those who think LLMs are just hype haven't used them, or don't know how outdated most back office processes are, and don't realize how limited we are in terms of content. I would say the bubble is just barely forming, not about to burst for several more years.

Reasons:

- OpenAI lobbying trying to get open source competition banned

- Apple releasing the M4 with those hardware specs

- Big brands like Adobe finding early success

- Industries are ripe for disruption: Medical, legal, procurement, communications of various kinds especially around documentation, support, summarizing, education, media, art, music, film and other entertainment, I can imagine a lot of disruption.

What would this do to Netflix:

  render a 100-hour Harry Potter film that follows every detail of the books exactly 

Or:

  render a Tom Cruise sci-fi movie starring Sigourney Weaver in her prime and Bruce Willis as the villain 

How could Netflix or even YouTube keep up with scripts that render any video you can imagine? They'll have to offer it too, or go the way of Blockbuster. I imagine record labels and film studios will sue and try to get certain models banned that imitate celebrities or film styles, but people will just illicitly share models with torrents. There's going to be a whole era, I think, because the tech will need to be captured by the big boys but it's not there yet - so part of that is letting the market come up with ideas before they absorb it all then burst the economy.

Our search engines and websites will have LLMs imbued into their functionality, smartphones will have them, kiosks IRL will have them, SaaS will use them to replace representatives and online order forms.

IMO AI models are potentially more disruptive than social media and crypto because it's not just the sharing of content unrestricted, it's the unrestricted creation of content and information itself - giving basically anyone the ability to do it.

After Apple will relase a new iphone with ChatGPT-style integrated. Outside our bubble chat gpt is not much used, but everybody talks about it is the future. So when they are tired repeating "AI is the future"

  What do we really need LLMs for that humans can't?

I would argue that it's not about whether or not we need something that humans can already do, it's that we don't want a human to do those things because a machine might be able to do it better, faster, cheaper, etc.

A human can operate a lathe, I used to do it, but the CNC lathe I also operated could do any thing I could do much, much faster with just as much accuracy.

> When will the AI bubble burst?

This year

> What will trigger it?

World events affecting all markets

> What do we really need LLMs for that humans can't?

LLMs are fantastic and are a huge boon. We'll be using them to our collective advantage for a long time to come. But the AI bubble is more a reflection of capital movement than technological promise.

The AI venture-capital bubble is destined to burst (eg. Humane and Rabbit are going nowhere) but the incumbents like TSMC and Nvidia are probably going nowhere anytime soon.

AI is not going away.

The bubble might burst though when there are big break throughs by someone like OpenAI or google, as right now money is being thrown at anything with AI in the name, when those startups fail to deliver the bubble will burst and all the spoils will go to a few that actually are able to deliver, making the rest irrelevant.

It is difficult to predict with certainty when or if an “AI bubble” will occur. Some factors to consider would be investment bubble, unrealistic expectations and/or security and reliability issues.

There are, and have been, very few real bubbles in human history. AI is not a bubble, its a continuation of a technology trend

Tuesday it’s always on a Tuesday

The next GPU shortage