HACKER Q&A
📣 eimrine

When to Expect a Swarm of Drones?


Propagandists of all kinds claim that in 2024 we are gonna to see swarms of AI-controlled drones on the battlefield. We have seen a lot of drone vs drone battle videos in early 2024, but my opinion is that we have ready neither swarm (a set of drones which are communicating not only with operators but also with each other) nor AI (a decent computer vision with a predictable aim chooser).

Any insights on this direction?

  👤 bell-cot Accepted Answer ✓
Outside of low-quality & sensationalist coverage (and propaganda), I would not look for either swarms or AI to make any sudden-splash entrances to the battlefield.

Swarms sound cool...but require more units, each one of higher cost, all matched to some particular Swarm Spec., and each with a stronger signature (to coordinate behavior) for enemy EW equipment to pick up.

Kinda similar for AI. Do you call low-end visual recognition "AI"? What's it cost (in R&D, lead time, tooling, unit cost, weight, power drain, training, ...), how accurate is it, and how easy is it for the enemy to update their camouflage & counter-measures to effectively defeat it?

👤 h2odragon
The reality, when it comes, will not look very much like the hype.

The hype is all about fundraising; even if its second order. The people spewing such nonsense may just be "building reputation" at this point in preparation for financial scams they intend to perpetrate later.