Will there be more layoffs in 2024?

I assume any small companies that were on the fence will no start doing more as it's easier to pull off in an environment where other companies are doing layoffs. Also a lot of smaller company outlooks are trending downward which until they hit bottom will likely involve more layoffs.

Layoffs happen somewhere every year, even in amazing economies (and many have already been announced this year). Do you mean are we going to have a repeat of 2023, with a massive amount of tech layoffs? I don't know, I'd assume we wouldn't, but so far the year isn't off to a great start on that front, seeing quite a few tech companies announcing more layoffs, so I'm not sure.

There will definitely be some as things take time to propagate, but my estimate would be a reversal in the end of 2024 when feds are going to lower interest rates. This coupled with the AI hypetrain is going to drive competition to get established in the space.

If interest rates remain high and capital remains expensive, then yes.

The tech job world of the last 2 decades was riding 2 tsunamis, the explosion of the internet and 0% interest rates. The last 2 years have put the brakes on both of those fronts. In the developed world the market has become effectively fully saturated with web and app development, simultaneously the ability to borrow money is no longer effectively free.

Both of those changes have halted risky growth opportunities.

tldr; layoffs will continue until money is free again or a new and highly lucrative unsettled frontier is found

If you look at the stats for last year, it seems like an exponential decay: https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/11/tech-layoffs-2023-list/

Likely we'll see half in the next two months, then a quarter, and less.

Companies that are wasting their capital will do layoffs. That includes people working at profitable companies who happen to be working on projects that either don’t make sense or are not financially viable.

Most of my friends who got laid off said they were working on these types of projects, so obviously anecdotal. I was curious so I asked them.

When governments are paying to keep wars running outside their borders, the impact will come on the economy and affect the buying power of end customers. If we see how wars are expanding, 2024 seems difficult, I hope this is a wrong analogy.

yes, but we should also see hiring pick up (and we have some). I expect lots of shuffling around in 2024, but less of the 2023 "winter" we had.

For instance, I know multiple teams at my FAANG that have open positions, though there is a backlog of both internal and external candidates.

Yes, the party is over. Expect to see startups who haven't raised money in 2+ years to completely shut down.

Yes.

Of course. We haven't even finished January yet.

Yes.