Would you fly on a Boeing 737 MAX?

I work in an industry with conceptually similar safety challenges and some similar solutions, and I think I have a rough idea about the pervasive breakdown of engineering and leadership culture you need to produce an outcome like the original MCAS troubles, which I studied in more detail than the more recent issues. I see in my work processes play out that kill off bad ideas in the stages where they are meant to be weeded out.

Even knowing the extensive QA apparatus and the level of experience in the aviation industry, no, I would personally not.

> Perhaps I'm behaving irrationally due to fear

From a probability perspective, it's absolutely irrational. However that doesn't make your fear any less real to you.

After I went skydiving, the instructor came over to give me a pep talk in order to calm my nerves for what I was about to do—the most dangerous thing I may do all day—drive home. There are plenty of reasons to instinctually fear certain activities, but with rigorous preparation, inspection, and guidelines they can actually be safer than every day activities we grow complacent of.

Boeing's quality control issues have been known and talked about for years, and the initial MCAS problems with the MAX were the consequence of prioritizing certification and pilot training over a more robust redesign. But still, casualties per flight or per mile flown make even the least safe late model commercial airline remarkably reliable. Whenever an issue is discovered, they should ground the affected planes, investigate, resolve, and hopefully improve future quality control and maintenance guidelines.

So to answer your question, I would be comfortable to the extent that I wouldn't give the model of airplane a second thought and will buckle my seatbelt on the taxi ride to the airport next week for my flight. Airplane model unknown.

Fly on a 737 MAX? No thank you. Up til recently US domestic aviation has been incredibly safe. But by all accounts Boeing systematically disassembled it's engineering safety culture and replaced it with a make money fast culture. It took 20 years for things to start falling apart, but we're at the beginning of the "unsafe period."

Finding an Airbus in the states is not easy, though. I'd fly American, but their customer service is crap and they started flying their planes to third-world countries for maintenance, so I can't expect them to be that much better.

I personally would not.

Without wanting to cause undue anxiety (given it's an anonymous posting), this apparent anonymous posting by a Boeing employee on an aviation forum regarding the 737 Spirit line is pretty shocking (there's two posts, and multiple reporters in the comments are asking to contact the person for interviews):

https://leehamnews.com/2024/01/15/unplanned-removal-installa...

I had a crippling fear of flying and I still have anxiety about it. One way I got over it was by learning a lot more about aviation. Now I'm really not afraid of anything happening on a plane short of a. catastrophic failure like a wing snapping off or b. uncontrolled fire in the cockpit. Most other things are recoverable, and those problems are very unlikely.

The flaw that caused the fatal 737 MAX crashes was something that that better trained pilots would have been able to overcome. And this would likely be the case for most problems. The recent door plug blowout did not cause a crash, for example.

So I would not be afraid to fly on a 737 MAX from a major US airline over US territory. It wouldn't be my preference but I wouldn't be afraid to.

Yes.

Fundamentally there are many greater risks out there that I am ignoring. Boeing definitely has problems, but those problems are still less risky than many other things in my life.

It is an irrational fear. I used to have it too but I lost it after flying a lot for work.

Yes, the Boeing safety issues are concerning but the odds of something happening on your flight are astronomically low. It's riskier for you to climb on a ladder to trim your trees or to be on the road driving somewhere. Check out your comparative odds of dying here[0]

The FAA claims that it's Air Traffic Controllers handle 45,000 flights per day [1]. That is only the USA. Any accident makes the news. So, do the math.

One thing that helped me was reading about the engineering that goes into the airframe of the planes. For example, no plane has ever crashed due solely to turbulence. The plane frame and wings are engineered to withstand massive loads, lightning strikes, etc.

[0] https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-o... [1] https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers

I have semi-jokingly suggested that air travel is actually too safe.

That is, we accept far far higher risks in other areas of our life because it would be too inconvenient and/or too expensive to solve. How much positive impact would occur if we loosened air travel safety controls?

Caution that I suggest this and a thought exercise; not an actual suggestion.

Air travel just gets more newspaper headlines than “drunk driver kills family in accident”

We humans are not very good at risk assessment. Realistically, flying in a 737 MAX is nowhere near as dangerous as making a left turn in a car (in the USA). Yet many of us do that every day without a second thought.

That being said, one underrated health risk is stress. If it alleviates your stress to avoid a particular air frame, you may be preserving your health by eliminating a burdensome worry.

I would, and I have recently. It's certainly not my first choice, but in absolute terms, the risk is still very low. And depending on the route (and, as you mentioned, the possibility that the aircraft can change after booking), it can be pretty hard to entirely avoid unless you just don't fly, or take incredibly inconvenient routings.

I have flown on 737 MAX aircraft several times and lived to tell my story. I'm currently looking for a writer to help me with my autobiography describing my flying experience, and hoping for a movie deal while this still has some legs as a news item. In the meantime I'm happy to talk about it -- AMA.

Yes, I would.

That said, I would pay (have paid, taking a family trip for Spring Break) slightly more for a trip on a different aircraft. It was only ~$20 per ticket and a slightly longer layover to go with a different airline that ran Airbus A320s. NB: I have little fear of flying, I love flying. I'm mostly just running the math.

Similarly, and probably more importantly, my rusty old Pontiac Vibe is a less safe vehicle (for the occupants) than my Toyota Sequoia. And my road bike is less safe for the rider than either. But I still drive the Vibe when I don't need many passengers or tow capacity, because it's way cheaper and less polluting to use, and I'm still really looking forward to commuting on my bike again when spring arrives because that's enormously cheaper and less polluting and also more fun.

If I had no options, yes. However, since there are plenty of options, I will be avoiding it.

I quit flying in 2003 because the terrorists won. The TSA made flying horrible.

I always knew I could fly in an emergency. Given the latest revelations, I no longer feel that is the case. I would rather drive… or I won’t be going.

I too have a certain fear or flying, even though I fly quite often. One thing that has actually helped me (and from the comment field, helped a lot of other people too) is this channel: https://www.youtube.com/@MentourPilot

Not only is it great content, but the way Peter breaks down accidents and goes through all the safety barriers modern airplanes actually have, it has over time lowered my fear of flying.

I just flew on 737 MAX 8 two times in the past 2 weeks and (surprise) I survived. But I have to admit I was a bit nervous. Things you do for a $50 flight (including luggage) to the Canary Islands. Thanks RyanAir...

I talked about it to the people sitting next to me, and they seemed completely unaware of the news about it. In fact, they weren't even aware about what kind of plane they boarded. I suppose a lot of people don't care at all, and trust in airline control.

Sure, no problem. For something like flying, which to a layperson appears really chaotic and uncertain, I rely on statistics. So I spend more time making sure my trip to the airport is safe than I do worrying about the flight.

It also helps (or hurts, depending on your perspective) that I spend enough time perusing AVHerald to appreciate that planes break fairly routinely, and Airbus planes are as well represented as Boeing. Crashes are exceedingly rare.

Yes. I’d prefer to fly on an airbus, but the total risk is still low considering the incident per flight hour rate of commercial aviation.

Yes. I am not going to buy into the doom and gloom news cycle. If there are actual fatal issues with the planes, oh well. I’ll be scared for a few seconds to a few minutes and then it won’t matter because I will no longer exist. But the likelihood of that happening is low enough that I am not worried.

My answer is that I have. I took a 737 MAX on Christmas Eve. My girlfriend at the time took one the same day as the window blow out incident. If I had to fly somewhere, I'd make sure my will is current, and then just go for it. Who wants to live forever anyway?

I would avoid 737 MAXes when possible, but if I've already purchased a ticket and there was a last minute plane change to the MAX, I'd go ahead and fly on it.

I think these planes do present a greater-than-usual risk, but the risk is still very, very low.

No I will do my best not to. Too many incidents and yes aviation in general is safe but lost trust in 737 MAX. I would rather cancel a flight last min and be stranded at an airport than get on one knowing I am on one. Frightening thought.

I took note of the planes when booking my flights to SXSW the other day and made sure none of them were Boeing. Irrational? Maybe. But also if everyone did that maybe Boeing would take some interest in fixing their broken systems.

I would, though I'd prefer other planes if there was an easy alternative.

Sub-par safety in commercial aviation is quite good safety compared to most other areas of life. Not worth worrying too much about unless it gets much worse.

I would still fly on a 737 MAX.

I've read about (and watched the Mayday episode) about dozens of air disasters. You can't be 100% safe, but I don't think the MAX is that much riskier either.

Honestly, I would be willing to fly, but I also do have a rather risk-affine mindset. So, to me the question is similar to "From a pure risk profile [i.e. ignoring money and regulation issues]: would you go parachuting?", which I would also answer with "yes". I bet that parachuting is much more dangerous than flying on a Boeing 737 MAX.

In short, on a forum where lots of writers could imagine founding a startup, you will find quite some people who are much more risk-affine than what is common in the general population. :-)

If it was an easy thing to do like checking a box, I'd do it, but honestly I fly often enough that it'd probably be more trouble than I care to go through.

If its the cheapest flight going from and to where i need to be - Yeah sure no problem.

I have a far higher chance of dying under a bus / taxi in the airport drop off zone.

No thanks.

I will avoid Ryanair, for example. And check all other airlines.

This isn't an answer to your question but I recommend the Lovefly podcast with Paul Tizzard. It really does help with flying.

I would, I’d even take the seat next to the plug. Probably wouldn’t put my kid next to it though.

Yes, and I wouldn't even think about it.

The likelihood of me dying in an aviation accident is far lower than me dying while taking a walk to my mailbox. I used to work in aviation and trust the safety processes and culture that it has established in North America. That we continue to uncover these faults tells me that the process is working as intended.

Yep, no issue here. The relative chance of dying in a plane is so low compared to car use.

I would do my best to avoid it

> Perhaps I'm behaving irrationally due to fear

Or there's some other, unrelated reason - might be worth exploring.

I had a huge fear of flying but turns out it was "just" kidney stones - I was afraid of experiencing discomfort during takeoff and landing, but didn't realise it. Once they passed, the discomfort, and thus fear that was caused by it, vanished.

As for Boeing: I'm sure the media is now full of stories that would not be news if not for the recent events. All to woo you into clicking that link.

Personally I have trust in the institutions which make flying the safest form of travel - especially seeing how they already grounded a number of planes due to the incident(s?) recently.

Absolutely not.