Shift in the job market here to stay?

There are at least three active threads on this subject right now. I too had 15 years experience with lots of open source history. My solution to this problem was to change career. If you are already vastly superior to your peers in your capabilities and solution delivery then skilling up will only make you more incompatible to the average developer employers expect to hire.

There are some hard realities you need to accept about software that have resulted in massive swell over the past several years. Now the industry is contracting in response, but without clear candidate or leadership solutions.

In most cases the need for experts is gone and replaced by a variety of tools. If you to be an expert redirect your attention to less popular languages like Rust and Zig where there is less applicant noise. Otherwise you are competing against expert beginners that configure tools instead of writing original software.

There is some excellent leadership in software, but that is exceptionally rare. To be an excellent developer you need to score extremely high in both agreeability and conscientious so that you are really good with the details and willing to go above and beyond to build a more durable product. To be a good leader you need to push that agreeability way down so that you build a lust for confrontation with high empathy. Good leaders really tear into people to discover why they are failing to perform and how to redeem or remove them. Most developers are exceptionally bad at this.

I suspect AI will correct for a lot of this by eliminating the need for developer pretenders, but that is still a few years away. For example why hire a framework junkie when AI can write equivalent solutions faster and cheaper. Even once the capabilities are confidently available employers will still have to go through their own reckoning to make hard financial decisions about their current approaches and software employees.

Between Section 174 and the post-ZIRP environment, I think the shift is here to stay. I'm a senior software engineer, 8+ years of experience, applying to jobs I'm perfectly qualified for only to hear the exact same things you're mentioning - The position has already been filled, we're changing our staffing plans for the new year, taking a new direction, etc... I've also been getting into the 2nd and 3rd stages of interviews, making it past technical interviews, only to still get the cold shoulder at some point afterwards.

FWIW, I do think that companies right now are overreacting in the negative direction and will pay for it down the line. Layoffs always have a sort of viral feel to them, IMO, and I think the pendulum will swing back in the other direction, but it won't be soon.

Section 174 is the feedback loop that will eventually wipe out a lot of the strategic advantages in the US tech industry--it'll take a bit since these levers are often controlling very slowly changing stocks, but it's ultimately a disastrous update. People should be screaming about it from the rooftops. Not only will it dissuade people from starting companies, but it'll drive companies that could've otherwise been bootstrapped into institutional VC arms, will slow growth for everyone, and will (and is) affect peoples' capacity to find good jobs.

I think it might slowly going to be the new normal even post ZIRP. I say this because lots of the companies that employed software engineers were internet related businesses or their dependent and descendent businesses (think various SaaS tools) and now that market has its winners and takers almost established, there's also the market saturation.

Nobody is building new Facebook, Google and such and even if someone is, they're less likely to gain those scales.

Revocation of ZIRP has trimmed the industry of any excess and inefficiencies, mostly.

There has always been cycles of recession and growth.

It is a fundamental nature of things.

It is silly to assume anything is there to stay.

The only constant thing in the universe is change.

Perhaps the supply outgrew the demand? Why not start your own tech startup and hire the newly large supply of engineers? This is my opinion, as I'm looking for a cofounder (one or more).

There's just less money available for startups and all companies are rightsizing which means there are fewer open positions. You'll need to be more strategic in your job search. You'll need to ask colleagues and friends for leads. You'll also have to pick companies you want to work for and investigate what positions they have open and tailor your resume accordingly. Networking is the best way to get a job now. Throwing your resume out there and hoping someone will call will no longer work.

You'll have to adjust to the current situation. There will be another growth cycle but it will be a few years from now. It doesn't look like we are heading toward a recession but investors and companies are being careful. I suspect it will take 3 plus years to thaw but hiring is unlikely to ever be as loose as it has been in the last decade. A period when companies were throwing perks left and right just to attract workers.

If you already have a job, give it your full attention. It seems like this sector won't be recovering anytime soon.

I’m inclined to think that the industry will bounce back in a little while. We’ve seen plenty of bubbles pop in software and so far things have always gotten better. I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing.

The job market shrunk but the money spent in tech is still there. Most of the companies laying off are still seeing revenue growth. There is no solution to find a job like before, the solution is to take a chunk of big tech revenue. Starting by stopping buying from them.

Have you considered freelancing in the interim?

It's a numbers game. Apply to everything. Lower your standards. I think it's here to stay and will only get worse as the offshoring continues.

Saying your 15 years and published books seem slide maybe you need to seek out a lower paying position. Companies seem to be avoiding more expensive hires right now.

Seriously? Our "business leaders" are still wasting money on their Blockchain casinos? FFS.