Do you think GPT-5 will release before Gemini Ultra? Will it be better?

The Gemini benchmarks appear to be heavily gamed. They seem to be carefully presented and use different prompting techniques to show Gemini beating GPT-4. Since no one can actually use Gemini Ultra to confirm, I think it’s safe to assume this is fluff for shareholders and that once the public gets hands on it will be apparent that GPT-4 is still the better model and better aligned with fewer hallucinations.

There’s very little information on how soon we might see GPT-5. OpenAI seems to have thrown the kitchen sink at GPT-4, so without any new algorithm breakthroughs (which they are rumored to have made with Q*, but that might be just PR) I don’t know that we should expect miracles.

I’m bearish on LLMs in the next 1 year but bullish over the next 5 years.

OpenAI said in Spring that GPT5 was not being trained yet:

https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23683084/openai-gpt-5-rum...

Then hinted a few weeks ago that work had started, but probably not actual training:

https://decrypt.co/206044/gpt-5-openai-development-roadmap-g...

Even if training has started since then, that doesn’t seem like nearly long enough to have it completed by the end of the year, especially if they intend to go through an extended period of testing & aligning work as they did with GPT4 (which they tested for six months before releasing).

Talk is cheap, I'll believe it when I see it from Google.

We also can't expect a gap like gpt3 to 4 from 4 to 5. ML progress has never been linear like that, we could be nearing another plateau. Not that I think it's just hype, the current level is extremely practical and valuable, but we could go another 20 years without huge progress.

The biggest pull with Gemini is that there isn’t a subscription fee…

I don’t think OpenAI needs to worry. I honestly did not feel a single emotion from Google’s announcement and it’s also clear that they manipulated the benchmarks, which won’t matter to their average user but anyone with a little bit of skin in the game can see right through it.

What I think will happen is that Ultra will end up being a “stable ChatGPT 3.5” and that’s it.

I am from the EU so I can’t try the Pro version in Bard, but there will be benchmarks to look at in a few hours already.

I think it will be better, stakes are heigh and they can't afford another failure like Bard, their AI reputation would crumble and become a meme. They have the expertise, the data and unlimited computation capacity (hey, maybe they are repurposing all those Stadia gpu).