HACKER Q&A
📣 keepamovin

How close are we to a World War situation?


It is October 2023. Russian is in a prolonged conflict with the Ukraine. And Israel has just gone to war with Palestine after a devastating surprise attack from Hamas. Break outs of major battlefronts in two main areas, Russian-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, seems to echo the situation before WWI and WWII. Not to mention coming at a time of intensifying geopolitical "chicken", and increased international distrust.

Add that to a world suffering under the stress of economic crises, gas shortages and price hikes, and just out of a global pandemic--it seems as if we could be on a precipice.

While there are some surface-level similarities between now and the pre-histories of both world wars of last century, there are also substantial differences. History doesn't repeat itself exactly, though it can sometimes rhyme.

Differences include the presence of global institutions, nuclear deterrence, interconnected economies, the influence of 24/7 media, and a less ideological drive behind conflicts. Similarities feature regional conflicts that could draw in larger powers, economic crises and resource scarcity, a general atmosphere of global unrest, and rising nationalism.

Alarmism is easy, and apocalyptic doomsayers are commonplace, so it's wise to be cautious and often sensible to dismiss such talk as baseless catastrophizing.

However, it is possible that this time is different. What say you?


  👤 Justsignedup Accepted Answer ✓
Not close.

China can't afford it. They are mid economic ruin and can't afford a sustained conflict.

Russia is almost out of ammo. Desperately trying to generate more. Suffering from a lot of brain drain.

Middle easy is in fighting. There's no way they'd jump into such a war.

Nobody wants to directly attack a nato country.

who else would be involved?


👤 t312227
imho. pretty close.

it all depends on the reactions of the white house - eg. the "neocons" - to losing their war with russia which is ongoing in the ukraine.

just my 0.02€


👤 ajuc
Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. If it was conquered quickly - that would make WW3 more likely (because Russia and China would estimate their chances of further conquest higher and would probably start something in Taiwan or Baltic states).

Russia issued a statement just before 2022 invasion that demanded NATO back off from Baltic States, Poland, etc. If Ukraine fell quickly they could think they can force this by small scale provocations. If NATO really backed off - Russia would invade these countries soon after that.

A LOT of people are now safe because of Ukrainians (and NATO, and EU). Millions of them.

Returning to your question - WW3 is unlikely, because NATO wins 10 times out of 10. The best China and Russia can count on is stalemate with nuclear exchange. But what's the point of that from their POV?


👤 houseatrielah
The next war is Russia-China vs West escalated by China invading Taiwan or N. Korea invading S. Korea. Then maybe it goes nuclear... but the only way to win a nuclear war is to win on surprise attack first-strike -- so maybe there will be a surprise attack nuclear exchange before the invasions.

In terms of Israel, maybe they will annex Gaza, but its not a ww3 thing.


👤 mytailorisrich
There are many armed conflicts around the world, a number of them much more serious that the current heat in the Middle East.

Nothing particularly special about the current situation. And in fact since the USSR collapse there is no string enough backer to the 'opposition' to enable serious escalation.

Geostrategically the Russia-Ukraine conflict is interesting, not because of a WW risk, but because it is being used as a tool for deeper goals like splitting Europe and Russia and making Europe more dependent on the US for its energy, expanding NATO, and hitting China's Belt and Road.

In any case, no-one is going to start WWIII because no-one is suicidal. 'No-one' means USA, Russia, and China as realistically they are the only one with the power to start it.


👤 Kye
Wars are like market collapses. You can follow a chain of events leading up to it in retrospect, but no one really knows what will kick off the next one. They're all unique. People still disagree even with the benefit of hindsight.

👤 thedevindevops
90 seconds to midnight on the Doomsday Clock

👤 WhowasFired
Next 4 years 2026 - 28 US vs China

👤 hindsightbias
This the most peaceful era in my adult lifetime wrt to US troop involvement. I’ll take more of this anytime.

👤 ax0ar
It could start any time. There is a lot of global tension and to trigger a global catastrophic war is not as hard as people are made to believe.

Besides, neocons and evangelists are actively pushing for it.

It’s closer than we think it is, yet people won’t believe this because the media hasn’t mentioned anything yet.

Once it has a branding we will already be living the global war.


👤 ksherlock
You forgot Azerbaijan/Armenia and Kosovo/Serbia.

👤 seydor
Possible further eruptions/escalation of conflicts:

Turkey-Syria (already underway)

Saudi-Yemen

Iran-Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan-Armenia

Russia-Georgia

Turkey-Cyprus

Lebanon-Israel

Serbia-Kosovo


👤 lakomen
Since the left abandoned traditional left topics like helping the poor and the right has adopted them, but with a twist of only the poor of their own nationality, the poorer people get, the more likely it is they'll listen to those right wing voices. And the more people are in this my nation your nation boat, the more likely it is that conflicts happen.

The powers that be are pushing towards this new world war with austerity, with higher cost of living. Ultimately I see it as the same old war rich vs poor, 1% vs 99%. When there's war, people die, and who dies? The poor. And who profits? The rich.

Most media is in the hands of the rich. Media drives opinion.

Traditionally there have always been wars. War is good for business, especially the business of weapon manufacturers, which are part of the rich.

The world is destabilizing and I blame US omnipotence fantasy. Empire USA has military bases all over the planet. They have provoked the Ukraine war. Because Serbia doesn't want to play fetch like the NATO tells them to, Kosovo is being lit again.

I have no insight into Palestine/Israel other than the US has their fingers in there as well.

Every recent war (not sure about Azerbaijan and Armenia) the US / NATO was or is involved.

The EU, which is apparent now, is a vassal of the USA, at least with the corrupt leadership of Von der Leyen.

Africa is evolving away from EU rule towards China, which tries desperately to buy into other nations everywhere. With all the hate towards China, when have they started a war recently or influenced one?

The only entity which has acted aggressively is the US military.

So how likely is a world war? Currently I don't think it's very likely, but it's in preparation and the main actor is the US military.


👤 ilaksh
Actually the 24/7 media does not make us safer at all because control over much of it is still relatively concentrated.

The most dangerous misinformation ever always comes from nation-states and their puppet media in the form of propaganda. This is necessary to motivate war (which is strategic) because people won't engage in mass killing for strategic reasons only -- they need some ethical justification.

Reality is never quite enough to make war palatable, so propaganda must be used to make the enemy seem inhuman or highlight their worst behaviors or cultural failings.

This will come from your most trusted news sources. In every country that participates, hundreds of millions will be utterly convinced that killing as many of the participants in the other countries is their moral duty.


👤 ThePowerOfFuet
>prolonged conflict with the Ukraine

It is "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine".

https://theconversation.com/its-ukraine-not-the-ukraine-here...


👤 CrzyLngPwd
Russia is quietly sapping the strength of Ukraine, NATO and the EU, and Israel is reaping the harvest from sowing discontent in the region for decades.

One day, a dozen angry palestinians who have been tirelessly beaten by the Israelis, are going to do something truly terrible to Israel, and there isn't anything they can do about it aside form make peace now.

Also, stop watching the news. It's poison.