If you look at the internet as a technology category, it seems like it has never hyped down either. New things have come along in between, but in aggregate, the internet as a tech category is more hyped than ever.
So, is it the case that AI is such a fundamental technology leap that the hype will be ever compounding?
I think LLM are too costly, and their usefulness are limited (you can’t use it for writing, because it’s trained with good texts as well as horrible texts)
They are slow to update, so their world quickly become dated.
This will be the first blow.
Then we will have smaller fine tuned models.
Then we will realise the current architecture can’t scale enough.
It will take a bit of time before we fully grasp how to truly build a world with well defined protocols so we can have networks of specialised agents communicating and solving specific tasks.
Between these different phases, I expect some time where the hyped will be down a bit, before the next breakthrough
Also in the last few years since a around 2010 when CNNs starting catching hold there have been several leaps that came with new hype. From deep dream images to what we have now.
I suspect gartner is correct here though as the next leaps in performance might be some time away.