Is Threads dead?

Instead of posting this why not just search: Lots of opinions on this under recent stories about it

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37254294

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37510154

Another month in and I think we have enough data and given Threads enough time to overtake Twitter / X in traffic and to hollow the entire platform in "extremely rapid fashion" according to a previously wild prediction [0].

Threads is the one plummeting in "extremely rapid fashion", losing 81% of their DAUs. [1] That doesn't mean that it is dead, it just means that not only the media desperately projected these hype stories for their Threads clickbait but as many incorrectly predicted, it ultimately failed to overtake Twitter / X. Even more statistics here [2] and [3] show that Threads was hardly the "Twitter / X killer" as predicted. Both will co-exist but it seems all those predictions were erroneous.

For Threads to have around 8 million daily active users means it is still easily eclipses the entire daily and monthly active usage of Fediverse according to the stats here under "Average All Active Users by Month". [4]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36580669

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/threads-meta-app-decrease-da...

[2] https://www.businessofapps.com/data/threads-statistics/

[3] https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/social-media-news/t...

[4] https://fediverse.observer/stats

It'll be fine. They're in it for the long game.

Elon keeps Eloning, so inevitably there will be more controversies that make users look for something else, and Threads will be there for them.

What about bluesky? How on earth are they still invite only? Seems like they're missing the boat repeatedly.

I think there is a lot of inertia with social media. The 20% that use it all the time, invest in it, and make it a part of their lives (personal and professional) will jump ship to the next thing. The rest will mostly stay. Threads won't survive on that 20%, not if the 80% does not follow, because then there is less reason for the first 20% to stay.. Same with Bluesky. Both are clones of Twitter with something from the past added in to make it seem new, but neither are giving the 80% attentus populai a reason to switch their habits.