20 horse fields are chaotic, especially with positioning and horses getting boxed in, bumped, shuffled, going insanely wide into stretch. Forte got a horrible draw, but there hasn't been a better jockey over the past 2-3 years to handle it than Irad Ortiz. The 3/1 (probably ends up going off at 2/1 or worse) isn't that appealing for straight win bets. Maybe key him over those 3?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds - this is a good book that touches on how accurate predictions by groups can be. With horse racing, in aggregate, the wagering favorite wins ~30% of the time (field sizes vary), or one of the top 2 betting choices ~55% of the time.