I highly doubt that black box models can reproduce a movie without it being nonsensical or uninteresting. You can go look at bad b movies to see all the pitfalls awaiting them.
As an aside, I strongly believe that litterature and cinema are very different and that much is lost in translation from one medium to another, to the point that the essence is often lost. Litterature offers different viewpoints and has many avenues for nuance, like pullling attention or not mentioning things that would have to be visible in a movie. Movies are dynamic and, since you are kind of "in for the ride" during 1h30, the pacing and the spectacle become much more important than in litterature. Being visual, it also calls attention to different things. A 2 page description of a landscape now is a single shot, and you have to actually film the thing instead of just describing it.
At the rate we seem to be going, likely by next week.
Like an AI will just take random novel X, and use technology to make a full-length feature film out of it, complete with sound effects, visual FX, music, etc...at the press of a button?
Or do you mean it will take a novel, figure out the plot, important events, salient points, etc... and make a feasible rough draft of a script or screenplay?
The latter will happen much earlier than the former - I would guess that numerous Hollywood studios are using that sort of tech already as a drafting tool or something along those lines.
There's also some sort of writer's strike happening at the moment in the face of this new tech, so I'm sure a lot of studio execs are chomping at the bits to be able to downsize their writing teams (for both TV and for Film) and still retain the same productive output.
Oh, you meant good movies?
Not in our lifetimes.