Will GPT4 result in a shortage of doctors and lawyers?

There is already a shortage of doctors in the US, largely due to state licensing boards (filled with doctors) who artifically restrict the number of residencies they grant per year in order to keep doctor compensation up.

I can see where computers help folks in those careers minimize the minutia of finding statistics or refreshing their memory about something like certain cases, obscure disease symptoms, etc. I bet passing exams is as good of a definition for those careers as passing a leetcode test for a programmer. To put it another way, its ridiculous to think a computer passing an exam means it can replace a human's job.

GPT doesn't have fingers to test for enlarged prostates.

No.

Surprisingly, there's more to being a lawyer and a doctor than simply passing exams, and wannabe doctors and lawyers are unlikely to particularly care that a computer can pass its exams. Particularly not if the answer for why it's so effective is that model answers are in its training data.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002073737...

was great at diagnosing and treating bacterial infections in the 1970s. How it wasn’t a revolution is an interesting case study. Lawyering is already a much less lucrative career than it was 20 years ago.

Tech stuff has been increasingly automated and salaries kept going up right until last year. Of course, there's a bias because it's the tech people doing the automations. But someone needs to mentor the AGI.

We can only hope. The scarcity and bias in availability of these two services brings nothing but pain and inequality upon society.

The sooner they are replaced by machines the better.