Likelihood that legislation protects certain industries from AI?
One of the seemingly more realistic situations I have playing out in my head right now is that as AI starts taking jobs (Artists, Programmers) certain industries manage to successfully lobby the government to make AI illegal to use in their field. Doctors and Lawyers seem like a good bet for jobs that politicians will arbitrarily keep safe.
I reckon a 0% chance, at least in the US. There's pretty much no way to effectively regulate this, and the opportunity cost of stopping the innovation is probably too great. There's a liability problem, but it dovetails with a money trail so it will get solved.
Politicians are the first to go.
(1) ChatGPT's most superhuman skill is bullshitting and those who bullshit will be replaced first. (2) Human Feedback Reinforcement Learning is like the ballot box but better. That kind of model can really learn how to tell people what they want to hear at a level far beyond any mortal.