Also curious how this will be impacted by Intel's recent decision to discontinue development of it's P4 Tofino platform.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34976444
I also think P4 has been held back by the fact that hyperscalers mostly converged on a "dumb underlay" architecture where they don't expect the switches to provide any interesting features. Then P4 and Tofino came along and P4 has little benefit in that architecture (except maybe QoS which seems to be what Oxide is doing).
P4 may end up being used more in DPUs where hopefully we'll have support from 3-4 different vendors (with different dialects of course).