HACKER Q&A
📣 danielovichdk

Is the USA collapsing due to its debt, racial and political shitshow?


Looking from the outside, the country looks to be in a serious pain.

Debt rising. Racial and political situation is ludicrous.

How will it turn out 1 year, 5 and 10 years from now ?


  👤 allears Accepted Answer ✓
Reading the news, it sounds pretty bleak. But here in my own neighborhood, in the small rural town I live in, things seem more or less normal. Climate change is affecting us, but all the crazy stuff in the news isn't. Maybe you're seeing an artifact of media sensationalism and click-baiting.

The "debt rising" thing, IMO, is mostly Republican scare-mongering. You might notice that the Repubs have no problem lowering taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

Not to downplay the seriousness of these issues, but I don't think we're near the point of collapse.


👤 mindcrime
In pain? Yeah, I'd say that's fair. But "collapsing"? I don't really think so. This country is traditionally pretty resilient. Consider that we had a literal civil war and came out of it more or less OK in the long-run. There have always been periods of unrest and agitation, including previous periods where race related issues were front and center. But a lot of it relates to the economy. The "stagflation" of the 1970's had everybody all up in arms (so to speak) once, and we got past that as well.

I think things will settle down eventually. But I'm an optimist, and I largely buy into Steven Pinker's arguments that the world as a whole is becoming a better place in general. Sure there are exceptions in pockets, but a lot of things are improving.

Climate change and some of the resulting issues there could be the real wild-card in the equation though (to mix metaphors very thoroughly). Hard to make accurate predictions, especially about the future. As the old saying[1] goes.

[1]: often attributed to Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, an "old Danish proverb" and probably many others


👤 raincom
Definitely not. Rising debt is not an issue, if foreigners can swap "real" assets with "nominal" dollars; this is not the case for Turkey, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, etc. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait are happy to swap their oil with US dollars, but they don't take Turkish lira, Zimbabwe dollar, Pakistan rupee for oil. This gives at least 30 percent support to US dollar, EUro.

Second, even if 'racial and political situation is ludicrous', millions of foreign students are flocking to USA for higher education; same goes for millions of educated people in the third world who love to migrate to US, if the US gives them immigrant visas.

Tell me, how many Indians, South Africans, Brazilians want to study in China? How any of them want to work in China?


👤 PaulHoule
Most other places are worse.

Japan, China, and Korea are not having any kids which will harm the economy, not least paying for older generation’s retirement.

It is a guilty pleasure for me to watch the collapse of the UK. You can almost laugh about Jan 6 in the US or George Santos or even mindless political correctness on the part of the other side. Brexit has permanently damaged the UK economy, derailed the peace process in Northern Ireland after it was going so well, etc. Debt in the UK is so bad that the bond market said they would only buy it at loan shark rates. There is a full calendar of strikes for the next few months and it just a matter of time before the strikebreakers go on strike.

The U.S. screwed up getting into Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War but the worst harm done is that Russia got a ‘whataboutist’ excuse to really break its military force in Ukraine.

I’d say for race there are real problems but only 30% of the population are rabid ‘progressives’ and ‘conservatives’, the rest of the people are a lot more sane but you never see them in the news or on Twitter.


👤 bell-cot
Hard to guess the timeline, but no kingdom / state / nation lasts forever.

Read the history of the Roman Republic and Roman Empire. IMO, the factors you mention are far more symptoms than causes.


👤 32gbsd
It only really looks bad on tv and in home loans.

👤 bediger4000
We got a brief reprieve with a very centrist Biden admin. We'll almost certainly elect a Republican in 2024, which will enable and embolden all the crazies again. There's only so much kleptocracy an economy can take, so my predictions:

1-2 years out pretty much like now. 5-10 years out, gradual sliding into a weird economic situation where the folks in charge say it's all great because conservative dogmas are in place, but things gradually slide into disrepair,like in Kansas under Brownback. After 10 years, things may be so out of whack that the US might try to import people who have an education, like Tulsa did a few years ago.