Layoffs.fyi indicates ( filter: location :- Bay Area, date:- > last 380 days) about 60k people have been layed off in the last year. That does not include the Microsoft number.
I am curious about what the hive mind here thinks are the high probable short and long term effects of having so many unemployed people in such a high cost of living area? How will it shape the Bay Area for the next 1,3 and 5 years.
Seriously, for startups looking for solid talent, it might be a field day.
With that said:
High probability: The issue is already accounted for at a systems level, and is baked into the cyclical patterns for SF/bay area, just like any region. A number of support systems are typically in place for this contingency, and for most groups they will kick in and work: Family/social economic support systems are engaged; cyclical employment opportunities pick up in other not-so-tech areas which still need tech. Government included. People who like living in the bay area find ways to stick around because they enjoy some aspect of it, perhaps including some part of their personal history with the area.
Medium probability: The effect is quickly displaced by the relatively new, driving position of tech in the broader scheme of things; new jobs are generally available in little time (speaking in terms of laid off population, not individuals unfortunately), as layoffs were part of a cyclical broader business execution pattern, and hiring is almost always going on. The S&P hits new highs amid some cautiousness, reinforcing and benefiting the natural instinct to increase savings in case another 2022 happens.
Low probability: The SF local economy is shattered as 60K+ layoffs rock the community and cause cascading system failures. Biden visits and laments the entire bay area becoming a total pit. He would declare an emergency but doesn't have it in him. He throws around the words "human feces" as if they reinforce some covert, blanket agreement that SF just doesn't have it anymore. The buzzer sounds. Everyone shuts it down. Local cops form into lawless gangs offering near-bankrupt residents and business owners some meager peace from threat of direct violence, in exchange for selling their pets and small children into uncertain fates.
Just some ideas though. You never really know I guess.