HACKER Q&A
📣 quietthrow

What are some high probable outcomes cause by tech layoffs


Just saw that Microsoft will be laying off 10k+ employees.

Layoffs.fyi indicates ( filter: location :- Bay Area, date:- > last 380 days) about 60k people have been layed off in the last year. That does not include the Microsoft number.

I am curious about what the hive mind here thinks are the high probable short and long term effects of having so many unemployed people in such a high cost of living area? How will it shape the Bay Area for the next 1,3 and 5 years.


  👤 JoeMayoBot Accepted Answer ✓
Looking a relatively recent history, 2001 was a huge it to the IT industry where a lot of people went into other occupations and a lot of CS grads never got an IT job out if college, leading to the hollowing out of the mid-tier developer roles in the 2000s. In the 2008 timeframe, there was a rough patch where a lot of folks couldn't find work, but things seemed to bounce back to normal pretty quickly in the IT space while the rest of the country toughed it out. In both cases, people that might not have normally done a startup got together and started new companies, whether bootstrap or funded, some of which might be household names today. This time around, the situation feels a little different. As one poster commented, there are still plenty of startups absorbing the newly available people, who will be grateful to have the opportunity. There will also be normal shuffling of changing careers and moving. However, what is different is that the culture and tooling from the recent pandemic make it easier for remote work. Silicon Valley might be getting hit hard, but that doesn't mean the rest of the country is feeling the same effects. There will be parts of the country (world) that bounce back faster than others, making it less painless for people to get back up-to-speed. Also, in the US, we have more of a safety net that might or might not be available, depending on the political climate - though it looks positive because of recent history and precedent for relief around the pandemic. Finally, considering that a lot of analysts (yeah, they're all over the place) are saying any recession would be short-lived or we might even just have a soft landing (again, understanding there's nothing soft about people losing work), there might be a whole lot less impact this time around compared to the past.

👤 gardenfelder
A lot of unhappy campers.

Seriously, for startups looking for solid talent, it might be a field day.


👤 themodelplumber
First, just to acknowledge--it sucks to read that, and layoffs suck.

With that said:

High probability: The issue is already accounted for at a systems level, and is baked into the cyclical patterns for SF/bay area, just like any region. A number of support systems are typically in place for this contingency, and for most groups they will kick in and work: Family/social economic support systems are engaged; cyclical employment opportunities pick up in other not-so-tech areas which still need tech. Government included. People who like living in the bay area find ways to stick around because they enjoy some aspect of it, perhaps including some part of their personal history with the area.

Medium probability: The effect is quickly displaced by the relatively new, driving position of tech in the broader scheme of things; new jobs are generally available in little time (speaking in terms of laid off population, not individuals unfortunately), as layoffs were part of a cyclical broader business execution pattern, and hiring is almost always going on. The S&P hits new highs amid some cautiousness, reinforcing and benefiting the natural instinct to increase savings in case another 2022 happens.

Low probability: The SF local economy is shattered as 60K+ layoffs rock the community and cause cascading system failures. Biden visits and laments the entire bay area becoming a total pit. He would declare an emergency but doesn't have it in him. He throws around the words "human feces" as if they reinforce some covert, blanket agreement that SF just doesn't have it anymore. The buzzer sounds. Everyone shuts it down. Local cops form into lawless gangs offering near-bankrupt residents and business owners some meager peace from threat of direct violence, in exchange for selling their pets and small children into uncertain fates.

Just some ideas though. You never really know I guess.