Why is the wait for the new iPhone or gadget not as rousing as before?
It used to be exciting in the 2010s to research prototypes and leaks. I waited in the cold for the early iPhones for hours on end. But now obsessing over these things feels hollow and gauche.
They're appliances. You use them to access the same websites and apps, with only marginal usability improvements and occasional regressions.
Perhaps it's more than that. The increments are smaller and more frequent. Paradigm shifts are less common.
Technology feels a lot more exploitative too. Getting a gadget is no longer a one-way trade. You get a feature in return for something that isn't your money.
You don't wait for months and read all the reviews before something comes out. You don't even leave the house to check it out and order it. You just watch a few videos and have it delivered to your door. Getting something is such a non-event these days.
Phones have used to be an exciting new toy that can do anything.
Since then the internet has gotten worse, most apps are either shit or need a subscription and basically the whole thing has become designed to addict you. Getting rid of it would make work and family life harder. The few legitimate conveniences it offers, like knowing when a bus is going to come, work just as well on pretty much any phone.
Is it age? I agree with the idea here (though I never really had an iPhone or queued up for hours for something), and I wonder if it's that I went from teenager to graduate through the 2010s. Somewhere either slightly before or during university (graduated 2017) I too stopped caring about this stuff.
But I wonder if today's young teenagers are just as excited?
Because even a 2 or 3 gen old iPhone is absolutely amazing.
Sure, the new ones are always bringing something slightly better and shinier, but the cost keeps rising each generation and the benefits are diminishing.
If you look at what you can actually buy if you get a refurbished iPhone11/12 today it’s an absolutely amazing value. When chip shortages are stable and something genuinely new comes along in a big way (5G/VR/AR/whatever) perhaps there is a new interest in new phones. But right now I don’t quite feel there is any need. Apple’s AirTag tech was actually good and I wouldn’t want a phone without it now, but that was something I discovered after getting the phone. It wouldn’t be enough to upgrade on its own.
In 2010-2013, I was always excited to have the latest flagship phone: Galaxy S, Galaxy Note 2, Galaxy Note 3, Galaxy Note 4.
Eventually, I realised that smartphones are just substandard device:
- for doing programming, still not a match for PC/laptop
- for making pictures, still not a match for your favorite APSC/FF/medium format cameras
- for reading books/comics, not a match for you favourite dedicated book reader
- etc
These days, I only use my phone mostly for Whatsapp, Telegram, social media, music, reading some papers/books. No need for the latest, shiniest phone for those. My main phone is already 4 years old and doesn't receive update newer than Android 10. Probably will buy a new phone next... or the two next year.
Everything in life is subject to diminishing returns. Especially obsessions.
Back in the 2010s, Apple used to be the best phone making companies, and everyone used to have them. Getting the latest iPhone was a big flex and was just cool.
Nowadays, there are better or equally good phones (my opinion), and Apple has also increased the relative cost for the newer models. People are really wondering whether they should spend more money to get pretty much the same phone. With more availability of phones and more options, there are just going to be more people who dislike the product/like the product but buy something else.
Additionally, there are still people waiting in the cold for new iPhones, it just may not be you because you have grown as a person and you feel waiting for new technology is behind you.
What's the difference between a phone in 2022 and 2017? Camera maybe? Effectively the same.
I think what's more interesting is whether or not Apple (and Google, and Samsung) can become carriers themselves in the new decade or two. There was a thread on HN in the last few days about space based service for handsets [1] and it's clear Apple is thinking hard about it. Their recent satellite based SOS feels like "1000 songs in your pocket" in terms of early but important steps.
Regardless, I think Apple is getting better at making money off me regardless. Their Apple One subscription is really nice. I pay it quite happily.
1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34155783
I remember when I got my first real Android smartphone- 2012. Since then up to, let's say, 2017, I upgraded almost every year and was blown away with how each phone added real value to my life. In the earlier years, it was just the number of things that I could do that increased and later everything just became a smoother less buggy experience. But since 2018, there just hasn't been enough to radically change the way I use my smartphone. I use almost the same apps in more or less the same way. It is almost like an utility now that I have a narrow use of and I really don't want any more of in my life.
Maybe it's you. Maybe you're older than you were in the 2010s and not as interested.
I'm still excited about things that innovate. iPhones using satellites for emergency calls is awesome. USB-C/Power Delivery is awesome! The Samsung Fold and Flip are interesting and I'm looking forward to them being refined. Colour eInk is cool. Teensy is cool. The ridiculously good AI-powered cameras in smartphones are exciting. The Nothing Phone and the Framework are also quite innovative.
But your bog standard slab phone has barely changed over the last 5-6 years. In the past the features came in thick and fast - quick charging, wireless/reverse charging, better cameras, much better batteries, multi-touch, waterproof, OLED hi-res screens, more storage... but now the changes are much smaller and more incremental, it's natural to be less excited about them. For example, the practical jump between 3G and 4G was much bigger than between 4G and 5G. I just don't find it exciting at all.
Powerful status symbol, omnipresent surveillance machine, incredibly versatile tool you couldn't get by without. The smartphone has lost all of it's playful innocence. It has become serious.
The companies that make them have also become much more serious as well. That new camera module or button feature is now billions of cut-throat R&D.
Because of Power Law. The S Curve. Things are still improving, but they dont mean as much. In 2010s there were many obvious improvement, better 4G network and Modem, Better Screen, not just higher PPI but colour accuracy and even OLED. Faster SoC when things were slow. Better WiFi, Better Battery, Camera. etc.
Now you will need to at least wait 3-4 years to upgrade to see the WoW factor ( mostly in Camera ).
What is in the list of improvement?
QNED? but the difference isn't as drastic as LCD to OLED. Especially when its main improvement is its longevitiviyty.
SoC, would doubling the ST and MT performance really makes much difference to your phone experience. I.e When was it CPU bound?
5G SA, and WiFi 7. Most of these wouldn't be much from a single user experience, your mainly benefits are in capacity constrain situation. Important and Nice to have but it isn't your 3G to 4G upgrading experience.
Camera. -
The biggest hardware innovation that is left on Smartphone is battery.
Because the market hype and competition has mostly stabilized, it used to be that in the Android world you had multiple manufacturers compete with bleeding edge tech to see who was the best.
During a time when running certain software would be a challenge for your phone or taking a picture or video would produce quite grainy quality.
Especially when even todays midtier phones can handle almost any software and produce decent quality footage.
It doesn't help that most gimmicky phones just haven't catched on, even Samsungs fold.
Because nobody actually needs any of the features either guy has released in the last five years and the signal to noise ratio on the app stores has gotten atrocious. You no longer upgrade for some amazing new feature or app taking advantage of new hardware, you upgrade because your stupid non replaceable battery is no good and it isn't cheap enough to replace it vs buying a new phone.
Maybe it’s because you’re getting older and care less.
Because you're getting older and and you have - through repeated exposure - learned that having the newest and bestestest and shiniest new toy does not actually change anything in your life and that there are better things to get hung up. Maybe even something where you personally can effect change towards a betterment or life for you and those around you.
Just a thought.
Well, phones have crossed from being cool and new to being those things we must have to function in society. Additionally, they haven’t changed all that much. There’s no new function they can perform that they couldn’t before.
Edit: personally I want apple to make an eInk iPhone. It will never happen, but oh how I wish.
Well. Innovation has slowed down so feels quite natural that there are less “new features” to be waiting for
They're maturing & improvements are incremental spec bumps.
I literally just bought a top of the range 14, being an upgrade from a 7+ today. Very much doubt I'll manage a 5+ year jump again though since I'm guessing there will be some interface paradigm shift coming. (AR or whatever)
Simple diminishing returns, they're already 'good enough' for most uses.
Things will get exciting again when they can do something new, probably something AI, rather than a now unnecessary percentage improvement of what they can already do.
Because it gets old the 15th time and gen to gen there's no groundbreaking changes.
>"I waited in the cold for the early iPhones for hours on end."
I've never been able to understand this kind of devotion. But then again, I got my first smartphone many years after everybody else I know did.
In my mother tongue, Marathi, there is a proverb "Navyaachey naoo divas". Verbatim english translation: "Nine days of the new". It means novelty of new things erode quickly.
> It used to be exciting in the 2010s to research prototypes and leaks. I waited in the cold for the early iPhones for hours on end. But now obsessing over these things feels hollow and gauche.
It's always been hollow and gauche (and I would add trashy). You just didn't realize it back then.
Basically, if a firm profits in selling you something and then manage to convince you to get emotionally involved, you're being played.
Anyway, I'm glad you've opened your eyes.
EDIT: I just read other answers here and at this time they're literally all "it's because iphones haven't improved". I'm speechless.
There’s little to no change between phones. My iPhone 12 is almost the same as the latest version, save a few camera improvements (which I don’t care about).
Peak litography, it stagnates everything. Now we need to go back and fix the fundamentals. For example without keyboard a CPU is just a waste of time.
It was also hollow and gauche back in 2010s for the majority of people. The same goes for most of the nerd-related stuff.
for me, after obsessing over this for a few model releases, I realized that most years the new model doesn't add that much I really need.
Usually it is a faster CPU, which matters less than it sounds because most things I do on the phone are messaging or talking to a web service, not CPU bound, or camera tweaks.
I simply can't afford to upgrade my phone that often.
My 6S does everything I need from an iPhone.
You got older. That's it.
Because Steve Jobs thought he could cure cancer homeopathically