HACKER Q&A
📣 graderjs

Are You a Professional Gambler?


When in college I worked for the racecourse (horse and dog) totalizator betting in Australia, and there seemed to be some regulars who consistently made money. Also, I've seen some folks at casinos playing poker and baccarat who also seem to earning from this. I thought being a professional gambler was supposed to be impossible. Do you do this, and how?


  👤 dist1ll Accepted Answer ✓
As long as the game is zero-sum or even negative-sum, you won't be able to make money.

But, when you're placing tote bets, you're often competing against a variety of different actors in a prediction market - and not all of them are pursuing a rational equilibrium strategy. These suboptimal or noisy agents can turn a zero-sum game into a positive-sum game, which is called subsidization. When participating in such a market, your primary goal is to extract value from these agents (very similar to arbitrage). It's important to note that the amount of subsidization needs to exceed the totalizator fees, otherwise you can't extract enough value.

It's similar in poker, you're making +EV plays to extract value out of actors that are playing a suboptimal strategy. This is how some people can consistently make money. However, most people aren't rational robots, and are psychologically impacted by variance. All in all, I would recommend a different career path :)


👤 Bubble_Pop_22
Poker is not gambling anymore than the stock market is. You pay your stock broker in the form of fees and you pay the casino some fees.

Specifically you pay Steve Wynn or the Bellagio for the fact that they are hosting the game and providing fair and impartial personnel. So you avoid getting scammed at a table where people collaborate to screw you over.

Professional poker players are great at smelling newbies and inject themselves in games where their skill level is way above others at the table.

They manage to do so because if you think about it poker is the best environment to do this. You would not start a fight against a 6ft5 bodybuilder but Phil Helmuth you would never pick him from the crowd.

Most importantly the rich guy from Russia or the Gulf will never be able to pick him and avoid the table he is sitting at. Once they sit they already lost


👤 PaulHoule
See https://www.amazon.com/Dr-Beat-Racetrack-William-Ziemba/dp/0...

If you believe the odds to win are right at the track you will see sometimes that the payouts to place and show are really high in comparison, sometimes almost as high to win but you get 2x or 3x the chance to get a payout.

You are not looking for a good horse, you are looking for a good bet and you will sit out many races until a good opportunity comes up. Maybe 2 or 3 races a day have a bet with odds so favorable to overcome the track’s rake.


👤 foldr
If you were working there for a relatively short period of time, then it's not that surprising that some number of (lucky) people would make a profit over that period. Anyone who can really demonstrate a track record of correctly predicting races can presumably get hired by a betting company for a good salary.

👤 AelisiaK
I didn't know people gambled professionally