Do you think has blown its big chance?
If Mastodon is a fit to the job, it would have exploded with popularity.
There are longstanding challenges to marketing something like Mastodon. Call it the "fediverse" or "PubSubHubBub" and I think people's eyes glaze over. But it doesn't have to appeal to everybody, and it might be better if it doesn't... Wouldn't it be great if we could undo the "Eternal September?"
and now there is enough churn/pain on Twitter to overcome the activation energy hump of moving to a new platform.
We need a social network to share short texts which cannot be easily turned off at the whim of a billionaire [or a government for that matter ] - Mastodon could be that thing, could grow into that thing, so is worth trying.
It also doesnt have to be perfect or complete to succeed - we can fix things and scale as we use it.
Our individual choices are a vote for the future we want - getting there is a noisy stochastic process.
I think it's far too many months early to tell.
It's a good thing it's not push-button easy, or the tsunami might have drowned it. Most of them would leave anyway ... not enough sugar rush.