How do you deal with the end of globalization?

This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border.

The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.

Unfortunately, for people living in China, such as me, the only reasonable ways, under Xi's reign, are either to start a rebellion or to go abroad. Actually, the term "Run-ology"(润学), which basically means the study of running away, has been quite popular in China for some time. My current plan is to find a new job in a western country, hopefully.

I used to think that my country was just an authoritarianism state and things would get better, but now I know that it's simply dictatorship. I feel so sorry about what's going on in the land I love so much.

> Cold War 2.0 is coming

This would be a blessing. I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other (see Watchmen- ironically though it was about ending the cold war but a level down it works)

More realistic is a 1984 style "continuous but meaningless war" that lets the various parties pursue their ideological aims without fear of revolt from inside. Though I have no idea how to prepare for this

It's highly unlikely that we will enter a sustained period of low growth. It is too advantageous for all parties to continue interconnecting economies. Any country that chooses to isolate themselves from the rest of the world will find that it is much more difficult to be self sufficient than they imagined.

Its more like US trying to isolate itself from Russia and China (for seemingly different reasons), don't you think?

It is as if US wants to rollback globalisation, because they feel it is starting to disadvantage them.

But for many companies Apple for example, a globalised world is better, in both ways in terms of efficient supply chains and getting access to markets.

International trade is a magic bullet in economics.

Since this is HN, here is a book recommendation:

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan

I’m going to add the usual disclaimers here about everything that comes with listening to a guy who has been predicting doom for a decade. He is very entertaining though and he has some unique insights and some unusual data comparisons - it’s fun to read.

To be fair, he did predict events in Ukraine a few weeks before they happened [1]. That counts for as much credibility as one can have with a title of “geopolitical strategist”

[1] Jump to 7:45 https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c

That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.

I guess there are two questions:

1. Will we have hyperinflation at some point?

2. Will we have all-out war?

Everything else can be answered by the standard "don't spend more than you make, invest in a broad-market index, keep your reserves available".

But if you have those things covered, you may want to consider thinking about what you could do to mitigate 1 and/or 2. You don't have to go bunker-prepper, but you can do things that could help in those cases (and even in boring emergencies like hurricanes) - for example, change your eating habits to always have 2 weeks-6 months of food on stock, rotating through it, things like that.

China and Russia are yesterdays growth stories (China is still at 5%). Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.

Globalisation is all about transportation means being cheap and efficient.

That will end with our understanding that it breaks the natural rules. (Or the depletion of cheap oil, whichever comes first)

What you call the end of globalisation is the end of U.S dominance. [which is definitely NOT what I experience in Europe, on a day-to-day basis].

I would try to avoid such binary narratives. I don't think globalization and growth are done, but they will almost certainly be very different going forward. In the case of the US, I think it's fair to say it will be a very long time before we have the level of globalized supply chains that we had at the end of 2019.

I read this article earlier today which I thought provided some pretty insightful answers to this question:

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will...

Bad information is often worse than no information which is why it's better to save your energy/time/resources to deal with circumstances as they unfold instead of trying to prepare for the unknown.

Why did the west even go to China in the first place? Cheaper labor.

China can’t go do what the West does by meta colonizing (economically colonizing) South America, India, Africa and South East Asia because their people need the low wage jobs too.

The West will just go elsewhere. If China and Russia don’t want the business, someone else will. And when suddenly those other someones become the growth story, China/Russia will adapt and reprice (as in, they will stop the shenanigans).

This will sort itself out. Amoral industries will find the geopolitical jockeying by the growth economy leaders as a liability.

You need to have an exit strategy. What will happen to you if you lose your jobs and the only alternative is a minimum wage paying job? This is what most youngsters haven't had a life experience of. When you first get money you spend it freely on materialist things but it's all dependent on how quickly you learn that governments want you to be a slave to the work grind. If you have an ability to think and make decisions for yourself then you are a big problem for governments.

Technological advancement still means growth, even if it looks different from the growth of the last 30 or so years.

Also, wouldn't be a bad time for defence-related startups...

I guess it depends on how you look at it... For me this is like a river with a big rock in the way... The water will find it's way around with other means...

Considering this era of growth meant Americans became fatter, dumber, and went from 1 person working households to 2 people working multiple jobs who still require state-sponsored benefits households - the end of globalism sounds pretty great.

The future is more human-oriented instead of pursuing profit at the cost of everything else. It will be based on resilience instead of JIT, sustainability instead of extraction. Growth will be slow to zero, but things won't crash so often or so hard either.

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/u-s-trade-representat...

No. First you must produce compelling evidence that globalization is ending before you can should ask how to deal with such. I don't see the evidence, to many countries have on going interconnected relationships.

Before we address something like this, you would need to show evidence that it is happening, such as: Imports and exports are halting for a majority of the countries. Termination of diplomacy and communication between countries.

To assist in this, you might consult some definitions of globalism.

China and Russia are part of BRICS[1]. That's not isolation. That's half the world's people. And that's the coalition that will soon be the world economy.

> Cold War 2.0 is coming

I don't think the US can "win" that Cold War, so maybe it shouldn't pick the fight this time.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brics.asp

> I believe the era of growth is over. What are your preparation for low growth era?

I doubt it. It's a shame to see China isolating itself, but at the end of the day the manufacturing could just be moved somewhere else like India or Vietnam. Economically speaking, isolation is never the way forward, and China will likely fall further behind. Any sort of aggression on their part will only ensure that this happens

If anything, the extreme differences between China/Russia and the US will just bring the US (and the Anglosphere) closer together. I'm convinced the west has reached a stage of post war society where it's understood that it's better to grow up rather than out

What will be interesting to see is how Putin handles the current situation, considering they're losing ground and poorly prepared

Ofc I'm speculating here, and my position is highly US-centric

Green technologies and the de-centrification of energy sources is going to countermand the trend. The work will still grow.

"With China and Russia trying to isolate themselves from the world....Cold War 2.0 is coming"

You've been brainwashed

..help ourselves please

Putin, Xi, Modi, Biden/Trump are getting older. Generational shift is coming and it is a phase transition. Where it settles, in which attractor basin is the Quintilian dollar question. :) I vote for the ECO revolution.

Brexit too.

same as it ever was

I wish it was just a cold war. It has turned into a real fucking disaster. Despot Putin does not seem to be backing off, and perhaps will destroy all of Ukraine's vital infrastructure no matter the cost. If Ukrainians still stand still, he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

China and Russia isolating themselves? You’ve heard of BRICS right?