How bad is hiring going to be within the next year?

I don't know your personal situation, but the way I interpret things is kind of like this:

- FAANG got bloated during the bubble and anticipated growth that isn't materializing as fast, so they're cutting headcount. Similar for other big non-FAANG public companies.

- Down stock market means that public companies can't get as much capital for new investment by selling shares.

- High interest rates increase cost of debt, meaning nonprofitable companies relying on debt to grow will not grow as fast and may cut costs to become profitable or cash flow positive.

In other words, I think the impact will mostly be on "growth" companies that are not profitable, and companies that got bloated in the past few years.

I think companies will still hire software engineers, but the places with the most headcount are going to pay less. They didn't become bloated during the COVID bubble because they pay less. Think lower growth, stable, profitable, private companies that need folks to keep the lights on, where engineering is a cost center and not the company's focus. The places that pay top dollar will be more limited because growth prospects have narrowed. Entry level folks that can code will probably find a job, but it might not pay well.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't think it's going to be as bad as 2000 or 2008. We'll see though. The next 2 quarters will be informative.

I am hearing a lot about layoffs at "FAANG", Intel, Twitter and a few other employers that are notoriously bloated. (e.g I wouldn't take layoffs at Intel as an economic indicator because Intel seems to lay 10,000 engineers off every few years because of its own perversity)

More normal sorts of employers are still reporting extreme problems hiring people. For instance I was late for work this morning because the bus was cancelled because they didn't have anyone to drive it. All the pharmacies I know are closed on the weekend. I had to buy dress shoes for a wedding and found the shoe store at the mall closed at 5PM, fortunately they opened the gate and let me in...

I don't know about software dev jobs outside of bloated "big tech" firms but I think other companies actually need to hire people to get specific things done. Bloated big co's hire people to keep seats warm.

> If this were a year ago, I'd feel good; grind some leetcode, get hired at a big tech company for a good salary.

This dynamic is one of the reasons we're seeing such large layoffs right now. Even many of the companies that are rolling in cash simply got too aggressive with hiring in recent years. Anyone who knew the drill could grind leetcode, study interview guides, apply to enough FAANG companies and get a job eventually.

I've heard more stories about in-progress FAANG interviews being cancelled than I could possibly count. Most FAANG companies are still hiring, albeit very selectively. They're also trimming staff through large layoffs and also smaller, less publicized team cuts.

I suspect many of these are soft landing cuts, as I've seen a sudden increase in the number of ex-FAANG resumes landing in my inbox. A lot of stories about how people are just "looking for a change of pace", but I suspect they see the writing on the wall.

> I used to be a software engineer. Then I went to law school, and now work in biglaw. I am a year out of law school, and have been working on a legal tech startup with a friend. If we cannot raise in the next couple months, I wish (almost need, really) to bail on the biglaw job and go back to being a dev.

In your case, "used to be a software engineer" is already going to put you at a massive disadvantage relative to all of the experienced engineers who were recently forced into the job market by layoffs. You could try to lean on the startup experience, but keep in mind that hiring managers won't be eager to hire someone who admits to working on an entire side startup while having a dayjob. That could mean the employee wants to continue working on their startup while collecting paychecks, which is a lot of risk to take in a job market that is crowded with applicants.

> ...how bad is the hiring situation going to be in tech over the next year?

I think it's going to be pretty bad if you're expecting to go through something like the process you described:

1. Cram some coding exercises

2. Breeze through a FAANG panel b/c they're hiring anyone who can balance a binary tree and carry on a conversation at the same time

3. ...

4. Pull an easy $250k base, plus stock and a twice-annual review/raise cycle

I worked through the 2001 downturn and 2008. Both times I maintained a decent amount of flexibility in where I worked and what I worked on, with the consequence that I could no longer simply demand whatever salary I wanted and an extremely senior title on my way in the door.

Given that you have software development _and_ legal qualifications you should have lots of options if you're willing to branch out a bit. Ex.: big co's need folks to own compliance for user data, financials, etc.; being a technical lawyer could be a superpower there. Ditto running audits from a bigger consultancy: anyone trying to gain PCI, SOX, or various ISO certifications -- or even just the record-keeping and reporting needed to be a public company -- needs experts in both tech and legal policy.

So: I wouldn't freak out, but I would suggest actively looking for a more creative/blended use of your skills, vs. simply throwing yourself into a FAANG candidate pipeline and hoping for the best. It'll put you ahead of other candidates, hopefully avoid some of the post-layoff hangover, and honestly probably be more fun and interesting than just slinging code that gets more people to click on ads.

I've lived through a few previous downturns - early 90s, dot com, 2008. Yes, it was tough for a lot of people, especially when the market had a glut of ten-year folks competing directly with five-year folks. (For various reasons the people both above and below that didn't seem to have it quite so bad.) But it wasn't impossible. In both periods I succeeded in changing jobs - voluntarily - myself. It probably helped that people with less experience are generally cheaper in a time when companies were desperate to reduce costs. So yes, the job-hunting process might take more time and/or effort, you will probably collect more rejections along the way, but don't give up hope. The demand is not going away, and in fact it's still increasing overall even if some high-profile companies are having to correct their staffing plans.

I think we are exaggerating. I started a new position 5 months ago (with a significant raise of around 20% my previous salary). Within these 5 months the company fired a significant portion of their employees (some techies, but mainly non-techies like HR); it made it to HN (not the front-page I think). Hiring freeze for around 3 months... but since about a month ago they started to hire again. Now on Linkedin you can see the company is posting around 200 job offers... although, sure before the lay-off they had like around 1000 job offers (crazy).

My point is: if you go to Linkedin right now and filter by location=Europe, remote=yes, you get like 160K job offers (tech ones). Sure, you can filter down that number by removing managerial positions and other roles you are not interested in, but the thing is companies are still hiring (not all of them, but the majority).

Maybe it's just Europe? I have no idea about US.

Companies are like swarming fish. They perceive a threat and they all dodge together. Whether there’s a major recession, a minor, or nothing, they will lay off and freeze hiring across the board. I would suggest you find a way to hang in there but start looking immediately, and keep looking. Eventually you’ll find what you want but it’ll be an extended and disheartening search and you might not make as much as you would have a year ago. But over a lifetime career it’ll average out and you’ll be fine. Just remember, as with all things, this too shall pass.

What you do need to do from now on though is always have a plan for what’s next and an exit, even if you’re happy where you are. You never have to exercise your options, but optionality alone has value and it’ll provide a level of continuous confidence and courage. It also provides a focus for your development. Good luck.

I don't work for FANG (or MAANG or whatever it's called now) but for small startup which pays well. I'm not exceptional in any way, nor are people I work with- we are bunch of devs who like what they are doing and try to be a bit better every day.

We had been hiring for a few positions this year (Europe and APAC) and are expanding and will be hiring more next year. I can only tell it's difficult to even get candidates attention, not to mention get good senior people join the team.

Not sure if this is good indicator but I'm also receiving a 3-4 calls from recruiters each week, and it was like this for the whole year.

Maybe I live in bubble, but from what I can see next year looks good enough for tech.

My advice is to get 'ML' on your resume, some way, somehow, along with some selection of: TypeScript, React, Python, C#, Java, Linux, and Kubernetes.

Start with a good online free course like https://www.coursera.org/specializations/machine-learning-in...

You don't have to be a full-bore data scientist to benefit from the surging interest in ML -- for example, I've made my current focus 'UX for data scientists', I focus on trying to make interfaces that are pleasing to people working in ML, and this, I am pleased to say, just got my ass hired.

It's also salient to know that, over the next decade, while tech salaries will likely trend down (esp. as CoPilot, nocode/lowcode, etc continue to make our lives easier and hence less lucrative ;D) the *amount of addressable work* in ML specifically will almost certainly offset this change.

YMMV in other tech specializations, but I'd still rather be in our industry than most others. Again, there's plenty of work in MLOps that does not require being a data scientist.

Finally, if you can physically live in a geolocation with lower cost of living (or better yet, a currency that is weaker than USD) you can be the lower-cost option that everyone ditches Fancy McSanFransiscoPants for in 2023. Be sure to blog and show your work on GH ;D

I think you're in the U.S.A.? Can't speak for there, but here in Europe, nothing has changed, and we're still being headhunted.

Here's the conventional wisdom:

Normally, at this point in the economic cycle, the big companies cut headcount to appease the stock market. Startups tend to have a few years of runway. All of a sudden, that runway buys much better talent than normal.

Fast forward three years: The incumbent players have been dithering around for a few years, while the startups were built assuming the incumbents were executing better than average. As products go to general availability, they end up knocking out a bunch of giants that seemed unassailable at the beginning of the downturn.

Data to back this up: https://web.archive.org/web/20190907043749/https://mattermar...

(Note there is no dip corresponding to the 2008 downturn.)

tl;dr: Look for a financially stable startup that's still paying for top talent, and try to get a job (perhaps as a junior dev, assuming that's where you are in your career).

Most of us have been writing software that takes two developers to maintain - exponential growth.

There's always down times, but companies will want to get those huge inefficient enterprise software cogs moving again soon. The siren call of how great things could be if only the software was good are too tempting.

Hiring for FAANG and other publicly traded companies will be slowing down, if not mostly frozen for a year, but there should be sectors that are still seeing growth, need talent, and are willing to pay for it. It will be a matter of searching for those opportunities or creating your own within those markets. Every economic downturn is an opportunity to innovate, find real problems, and create solutions for them. Turnover doesn't stop (although it may slow) so there could also be opportunities filling roles that were vacated.

It'll be harder, not going to bullshit you. It might take longer for you to find something, you may have to interview at more places to get an offer (especially one that's appealing), and when you do get an offer it won't be at a 2021 price. But there definitely are open roles to be had, the industry isn't broadly in a hiring freeze, and it's possible to get a job. You will just need to put more effort into it than you would have in previous years.

I’m not immune to worrying about the doom and gloom news. But what I decided is that there will be jobs for programmers for as long as businesses need custom software. The various scary economic news suggests that maybe things will get worse for workers. And even if the news is wrong there’s always a down cycle eventually. But I don’t see how software people are more exposed than anyone else in any profession that draws a salary.

I remember 2008.

Workplaces get increasingly cutthroat when layoffs start looming. Coworkers sabotaging each other, whole teams trying to make other teams look bad, etc.

One kind of messed up thing some companies did during covid/wfh was suspend performance reviews; prevented people who were performing under the bar from getting feedback that their performance was not acceptable. Now the economy is dramatically slowing and pips are happening again, so people are going to get fired into a horrible job market. Really sucks.

It's not as nice as it just was. Since after COVID hiring resumed I've had no problem getting jobs. Just tested the waters and they are chilly. I can't get past intro emails whereas previously I had trouble scheduling the amount of interviews I was getting. It should recover in the new year.

honestly the job market have been a bit bad, the number of remote jobs have definitely decreased. all the big tech companies aren't hiring anymore and the ones that are, can just lowball since the competition with other tech companies have definitely softened.

P.S check out spacedleets.com for a free resource using spaced repetition to effectively study leetcode

The main thing is there are less than 6 figure jobs out there but not a lot of love for them. Of course we want to get the best results out there but the "bubble" in regards to exorbitant salaries will probably pop next year. We can probably see a rebound in 2024.

Well, I was working for a mortgage company and got cut already. The mortgage industry is def not the place to be right now.

Hiring at bigger orgs is likely to be mostly frozen into Q3 next year.

Maybe fintech is out, but manufacturing is in?

Fintech is sensitive to interest rates.

Manufacturing and anyone with fixed capacity get fatter profit margins from inflation (energy, etc).

I don't know how so many people tolerate the BS of going through the interview process where they can switch jobs every few years.

I've never been successful with it. I've only gotten hired as a dev by a very strong reference or because an eccentric boss gave me a contract-to-hire opportunity. That boss posted an ad on Craigslist... I joked about it saying it was a scam, and he said you know it's legit because he also wrote the job posting on park benches and bathroom stalls. My favorite boss.

Lately I just save money because HR keeps threatening to fire me for being unvaccinated. I've been breaking company policy for a year, and saving money for a year, I don't give a shit about the job market anymore and I hope they finally grow balls and fire me. My startup only has $200 MRR but if they don't fire me before end of the year I'm out. And I don't want another job either, I've survived an 8 year gap without a real job before. I'd rather live off of rice/soup than deal with corporate software dev another year. And interviewing is the worst, way worse than the day to day, I don't know how you guys do it.