There's also labor inflation in markets suffering drain to ones where demand is growing (healthcare etc), but I don't imagine a lot of them are clamoring to bring in software engineers to fill gaps cause we're so specialized.
I think Tech is a little isolated on these fronts from the pressures, and with the rise in rates the amount of investment in the area is likely down leading to less jobs and more free engineers, driving down real wages after adjusting for inflation.
I'm open to being very wrong (hope so) but my expectations are low. I expect a raise just not 8.whatever_inflation_is.
Good time to be a trades person though!
It will happen
Edit: I work in the education sector. Our dev team has 4 people in a company of ~250. It’s not really “tech”