In my opinion the only way to answer that would be to know the exact location of all their military leaders and trusted oligarchs real-time. When a majority of them vanish into the bunkers that is when I would expect escalation.
Based on what little I know of Russian military history they will do nothing to protect their troops or civilians but I am not a proper historian.
And if they were planning on using nuclear weapons, why would they nuke the parts that they control? Surely it would make more sense to attack Kyiv and other centres of command and control.
Maybe they will use nuclear or other mass destruction weapons but nothing that they have done (as against said) so far is consistent with that. Everything has been consistent with permanently annexing highly productive parts of Ukraine.
As far as retreating, who is winning, and other questions like that. The military war is very eventful, but the economic war might be a lot more important in the long-run and might tell you more about the future.
I think he won't, but I cannot say for sure.