What is your personal estimate of the interest rate we pay on technical debt?
My personal opinion is that it's around 100% per month, that is every hour of refactoring put off for a month doubles in size. That is, it wastes an hour elsewhere, AND still needs to be done.
Or is the interest, just how much more code we have to write to work around the debt?
Also, what units is the denominator in the fraction? Is it code size, functionality, or just calendar time?
So the question is not how much interest is there on tech debt, but rather what point does the cumulative maintenance of the system overtake the value it created. That's the point that it needs to be replaced.
But good luck, replacing a truck that barely works but gets you to the job site is just as tricky as replacing software that doesn't serve any good.