But a self sustaining civilization on Mars? I’m skeptical. Yes, it’s physically possible. And spacex seems to be heading in the right direction. But the sheer difficulty of the problem I think is sometimes understated.
Elon’s rough estimates on what it’ll take to create a self sustaining civilization vary from interview to interview. One quote:
“Roughly 800 to 1000 per year. That’s about what’s needed over ten years to create the fleet to build a self-sustaining city on Mars”
More than 3 launches per day for 10 years? That’s where the impossibility of it all starts to seep in.
Many seemingly unsolvable problems also arise. Where does the money come from? How will we make the Martian surface habitable? Even if getting launch costs down to 2 million as Musk stated once is possible (hard to believe, Falcon 9 is nowhere near that today), the amount of peripheral costs (maintenance, staffing, logistics, training, the list goes on) is extraordinary.
I’m pretty sure they’ll get to mars in the next 10 years. And they even have a good shot and doing that multiple times. But based on the sheer amount of payload that needs to get to Mars, it seems like a mission that will exceed the lifetime of SpaceX.
Mars doesn't have a magnetosphere, for one thing, so radiation is a big problem Musk already dismissed. We already know human bodies lose muscle and bone after just a few weeks in space. The rockets Musk has presented don't have room for the water and food needed for 100+ people. Many other issues. Not to mention terraforming is science fiction right now.
Mars (and Venus) do not have a magnetosphere to protect you from radiation. The gravity is the wrong amount, so your bones will dissolve. Mars itself is poisonous.
Write down every aspect of living someplace that you need: gravity, water, temperature, lack of radiation, etc. and in every way Antarctica is as nice or better than Mars. I don't see people clamoring to live in Antarctica.
One nice feature of Antarctica: if you want to go home, you can do so in a normal ship: no space ship required.
> Where does the money come from?
The goal of SpaceX is to make all of what you describe possible within or slightly above NASA's spaceflight budget as well as within the price range of a pioneer who wants to give up everything on Earth and move to Mars.
> How will we make the Martian surface habitable?
The surface will not be habitable by anyone within our lifetimes. People will live in structures that are either underground or partially buried.
> Even if getting launch costs down to 2 million as Musk stated once is possible (hard to believe, Falcon 9 is nowhere near that today)
Falcon 9 throws away carefully engineered and built hardware every single launch. It was never going to get down to those price levels. That's why you need a fully reusable vehicle.
Worst case: It's a huckster distraction while the public gets robbed.
Best case: He's an idiot huckster taking the public and his cultists for a spin.
Initially we were excited about the SpaceX plan but now it's revealed to be largely a sham. Human interest is apparently not the end-game.
Anything we do on the moon is going to have to be sub-surface to get away from the radiation and dust problems.
I don't see us getting a colony on Mars without non-chemical propulsion.
Self sustaining moon base? Possible.
Huge autonomous telescope on the moon? Really cool, possible but not a priority.