What is the future of the economy and government in Sri Lanka?

As a former resident of SL, it’s easy to point fingers at the ousted regime. Corrupt and made disastrous decisions for the economy, but there are far deeper problems.

The country’s politics revolves around weaponized Buddhist fundamentalism (the same flavour you see in Myanmar). For 70 years, it has just been politicians gaining by encouraging inter-ethnic conflict. The current regime was voted in based in strong anti-Muslim rhetoric. Soon, there will be another similar leadership. Until that changes, this country is no different than Afghanistan under the Taliban.

Tourism has been the saving grace, but the 2019 bombings and pandemic mean it will likely never recover. At some point, change has to come from within.

This is being treated as a failure of organic farming by mainstream media. Dow Chemical and Monsanto (which technically doesn't exist anymore; "Bayer BASF" now, maybe) would really like us to think so, and Big Media is always happy to do their part.

But it was obviously really just massive government incompetence. It has been known for decades how to transition to organic methods successfully: incrementally, and with education. Both skipped.

After a sensible transition, yields could be lower, per acre, but not necessarily. Money spent on fertilizer and pesticides would be much lower than that. Money previously sent abroad would have stayed in Sri Lanka, milling around in the local economy generating prosperity.

Now they have chaos, and it will take a long time to get back to their previous, precarious state, probably in hock to China. Dow and BASF will get themselves well locked in; other countries will be spooked. A big success, for them. Not so for Sri Lankans.

Pakistan looks to be next. There will likely be some debt renegotiation and a bailout, attached with some pretty onerous terms I'm sure. A possible bad path is if the US decides to make an example out of Sri Lanka because it went all in on China's debt trap diplomacy. Does Sri Lanka occupy a strategic location on the busiest sea lanes? If so, then there may be some competition between China and the Quad that may play out in an interesting way.

The weakest dominos are falling first.

Soon it will be the stronger countries. Euro now at parity with the dollar, and the yen is imploding.

Saw this coming, bought farmland, learned skills. Hunkering down. If we get a global depression it will be worse than the last, because people lack the skills to grow their own food and fix things when they break.

I am more interested in knowing how Sri Lanka arrived at this state; How does a country "collapse"? Where were the Economists and Finance Guys? Were the economic/banking systems really this brittle with no resilience are all? I would appreciate somebody knowledgeable do some explaining. I have browsed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%93present_Sri_Lanka... but still am not "getting" it.

That said, i think Sri Lanka is doomed for at least a decade simply because of their outstanding Debt.

As soon as a large enough tranche of cash flows in, the system will reboot. Its not Somalia where there are no institutions and things have to be built from scratch. There is enough cash in the world to make that happen. The chimp troupe will produce a great sound and light show for a few more months to decide the terms of the deal.

Are many parts of the world simultaneously imploding more than usual or is it always like this?

In addition: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Venezuela, Libya, and Ukraine are all in extremely dire straits from a previously prosperous time.

Here's hoping they avoid death by IMF.

they need better leadership. As of now i can see we will observe huge amount of terrorist activity.

I think China is buying it up.