What happens to the global financial system if the USA has a coup?

Personally I would be emotionally and in other ways devastated but nothing from a financial system perspective would change in the initial month/year timeframe. Business as usual.

What happens over the 10 year timeframe as the wheels of power are spun in potentially radically different directions is impossible to project with any fidelity but I would be receptive to predictions of a "slowly then all at once" variety.

[edit] Will also say that I think there is a bright line difference between a "coup" and a corrupted election process.

We saw an attempt at a coup on Jan 6. We have had corrupted election processes in the small since there have been elections, and in a couple of cases potentially in the medium.

A successful coup, despite Jan 6, to my jaundiced eyes, is very unlikely, but would accelerate the slowly-then-suddenly shift, tho in what directions would take a book to discuss. (Trump stood down the US military in ways that were totally counter to US power/national interest and instead revealed his own corruption, etc).

A corrupted election process is likely, but would not cause much in the way of external disruption, again not until the intent of the exercise of power was more evident.

I think we've recently had two "bloodless" coups, one in 2000 and one in 2016. In both cases, the loser, the one that did not receive the most votes, was made President. The result seems to be deregulation leading to global financial crisis.

IDK much, and I can't speak to reserve currency status, but in your given scenario I'd expect huge capital transfers. Volatility would be the bet there. You'd be crazy to bet against churn. Traditional value investors would get torched, albeit more slowly torched than growth.

However the USA has an underappreciated stability-focused foundation which helps power its tight historic focus on systems of subjective ethics. You'd think the ethics would push the stability around, but IMO it's the exact reverse. So I personally look around and I see lots of stability-focused people mostly looking to buy the dip and get on with their lives the best way they know how (the united way).

A similar lesson is true with the USA and economic growth. The lesson people are taking out of high gas prices and inflation isn't "the system is broken, so what needs to happen is..." (objective) so much as "stop messing with my life, what I need is..." (subjective) and this latter position rewards government stability.

From a technical perspective the top charts for the US economy are showing an expected relief period, comparable to the duty cycle concept.

Crypto growth, even given the USD-exit mindset, correlates amusingly well with bull markets for US economic growth leaders. I'd say there is at least some considerable disincentive to desire a coup, on the crypto-focused side, for that reason alone, even if the USD or reserve currency concept is annoying.

I see considerable technical reasons to expect US markets to come out very strong after the current breather. There are some massively impressive businesses and tech behind this as well, and businesses are learning to take better care of employees, broadly speaking.

Plus right now we are right in the middle of a panic-focused news cycle so there is systemic bias looking in that direction on even a month-to-month level. Sector rotation seems normal as well.

Tons of new traders and even retail investors are also looking to BTD ASAP which also says a lot. They saw how COVID turned out and want to position for another springboard for personal returns.

Just some thoughts...

>Background: It looks likely that far-right secretaries of state and governors will be elected in 2022 and in position to disrupt the 2024 presidential election. I hope this is unlikely but given the power they wield it also is "possible".

You win the "I believe everything I read on /r/politics and /r/worldnews" award of the week.

Get this crap speculation off HN. This belongs on Reddit.

This doesn’t belong here. But I will say this: Those suggesting the world would be largely unchanged in a post-coup USA fail to grasp the scope of the ramifications. No where on the planet would be safe/unchanged. Do not go there.

The real worry is what happens when countries reallocate away from US treasury bonds? If the US/allies can just decide to confiscate Russia's assets, every country has to be looking at an alternative

Both parties more or less let Wall Street run so it wouldn't change much. A civil war would be a different story but that's much less likely.

Generally the stock market would probably do very well over the medium term.

More corporate profits due to:

dismantling the EPA, FDA, all that federal land that will get turned over to corporations.

The states will have to lower their environmental, consumer, employment regulations to compete with other states for campaign donations I mean jobs from the mega corporations.

Part of the world with give the euro a go (Swiss franc too small). Some will bite down hard and either keep using the US dollar or switch to the Chinese yuan. Political baggage in such a scenario for the latter currencies. Perhaps coup isn’t as much of a fear/problem than the chance of repudiating us debt.

Political parties win and lose all the time. If you look at what the winners get done, it’s often not that much.

The bureaucracy kinda runs most of the day to day.

Losing reserve status would be an exception. Look at the strength of the Ruble now. Look at where all the oil tankers in middle east are heading for delivery.

> actual coup

> will be elected

An election is not a coup just because you disagree with the elected peoples' views.

You mean a constitutional coup? We had that in 2000. Higher volatility. That’s about it.

"Too big to fail"

> far-right

The left has gone so far left, that the right feels "far"