My question is for someone in tech, but of course, please feel free to chime in even if you are not in tech
1. What are the obvious Dos and Don'ts?
2. Were you around during the last one? How did you survive it / What got you through it?
3. What did you learn from the last one? Any dumb mistakes you made last time that you wish you didn't? What are some of the common mistakes people make?
- have 6-12 months of emergency cash that can sustain you if your main source of income fails. something will always happen, whether it's an appliance or car that breaks down, or an unexpected medical expense. slush funds are good.
- 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it'. make stuff last the extra mile, if you can. stretching electronics and clothes .... fixing electronics (when realistic) instead of buying the new shiny thing ...
- don't sell stocks. if anything; if you're fortunate enough to truly have extra cash, buy that stock at rock-bottom prices you've been eyeballing for a while. buy low, sell high.
- if you have dependents, be extra conservative with your cash. you will need each other.
- this too, shall pass.
I was working at a startup during the 2007-09 recession. Before that things were going great and they were hiring, and hiring, and hiring.
Then all of the sudden things weren't great. The startup had two products they were working on, all of the sudden they only had money for one. One morning I came into work early and all the conference rooms already had people in them with the doors closed, they axed everyone working on product A and walked them out the door. I was on product B, I was fine.
Some of those people didn't work for almost two years. It was just random. I had quit a software developer job in the real estate industry to work at the startup because I thought it was obviously going to be a bad time to be in the real estate industry. Which it was, but I had no idea that it was going to affect everything else.
- Get rid of debt, right now. Interest rates are skyrocketing and unsecured debt is the last thing you need. Restructure it, consolidate it, pay it, but get rid ASAP.
- Emergency fund. Cash is good, but inflation depreciates it and it's too easy to spend. Buy precious metals (gold can be bought by the gram, you don't need to be rich already) or some other reasonably stable store of value that tracks inflation long-term.
- Trim the sails on your unnecessary spending - not all, but some. Try and have something left at the end of every month.
- It's musical chairs time for jobs. Find a comfortable job at the highest pay you can muster that has long-term stability, best measured by longevity and number of employees. Now is not the time to join a funky equity-paid two-man startup.
- Fill the cupboards with tinned and dry foods. Perhaps not in the US (you guys are fairly self-sufficient) but in Europe we're already seeing gaps on the shelves, not least because of the blockades in Ukraine, rising cost of transportation, Brexit and so on.
- Fill some fuel cans if possible (store them OUTSIDE), fuel prices are unpredictable at best, at worst there will be shortages.
- Try not to read too much news. Walk the dog. Focus on your family.
2. Don’t lose your job.
3. Network in case #2 doesn’t pan out.
(lessons learned from the 2001 and 2008 crises)
A little bit of inflation isn't too bad, either. It helps people pay off debt with less valuable dollars. Bottom line: A little bit of inflation is OK, and periodic business retrenchments are OK. A whole lot of inflation, or a deflationary spiral, is horrible.
I would say though; be careful with with spending cash. Depending on your situation, it might be harder to come by. Many people I know who got fired in 2001/2008 and who had too high mortgages, debt and little cash fell on hard times for a few years.
But you might get laid off.
The goal is, should that happen, to be annoyed but entirely unconcerned about how you're going to pay bills while you look for the next thing.
Keep an emergency fund, update your resume and reference list.
And know your budget. There are expenses like eating out that are easy to pause if you need to—disregard every idiot yammering about avocados and coffee, as long as you're saving money at the end these don't come with any risk. There are expenses that can't be cut quickly easy (rent, car payments, utilities, gym memberships with year long commitments)—these are the enemy.
That's it. You'll be fine.
2. I was a self-employed freelance consultant. I survived by being good-ish at what I did. What got me through it? The alternatives.
3a. Boom-and-Bust are cyclic. 3b. The rich get richer each time the music stops. 3c. That which is old becomes new again. 3d. Always know how to fix something because when times are bad the rich will either want something fixed or want some new shiny thing installed. Times are seldom tight for the rich (or rather they tend to be the last to suffer before 'something is done about it')
* Cleared up credit card debt (actually all debt) 25 years ago
* Paid off mortgages
* Sold office and bought farm with year-round creek
* Stored lots of freeze-dried food
* Bought precious metals
* Kept my coding and writing skills up to date
* Moved some investments to cash positions so we have 1 year of expenses (arguably not smart due to inflation)
* Made friends with my neighbors
* Guns, duh
* Did massive infrastructure work like new plumbing, electrical, generators, roofs, decks, etc. before prices went up too high
Open new business, people will stop spending on unnecessary things, but think what every people needs every day.
Labor will be cheaper, think about that.
38 years living in Argentina, you move fast or you die.
A lot of prep is done years ahead of time. Live within your means, save for retirement and for emergencies. Don't buy the most expensive house or car you possibly can – something that's technically affordable on a bubbly senior SWE salary is likely very not affordable on unemployment. With luck and discipline you can end up with enough of a nest egg that you don't have to stress too much about this stuff.
I graduated into the great financial crisis, and lucked into a couple of dead end jobs. A mistake I made was internalizing that the economy is bad, clinging to those jobs out of fear even after the worst of the crisis had passed, and losing out on some years of high earning after things started to get better.
2. Yes, I was laid off from a start-up then joined as one of the first at an already profitable pre-seed start-up that would raise $20M with <5% dilution during the worst of the recession. Eventually exited very successfully. Labor was cheap and pre-PMF competitors dropped like flies.
3. Mistake #1: I saved instead of doing the smart thing and taking on massive debt. My savings and small debts inflated away over the next decade. My colleagues who opted for large debts had their large debts inflated away and faired much better than I did in the end.
Mistake #2: After the highly successful exit I joined a start-up with the hot "growth before revenue" strategy. The only thing that grew faster than our user base was the dilution of our equity. Investors won while we gave up years of work for a slice of the pie that got disgustingly small for the risk we took as founders.
To sum it all up: Profit before growth. Leverage the things the recession makes cheap due to other people/businesses no longer being able to afford them (e.g. talent). Fund profitable new business with debt. If you sell equity, only do it after proving that you can do it with debt and exhausting the option for debt. Despite VC funds drying up, you'll be the belle of the ball if you've proven you have created a reliable money printer.
Caveat: If you can't make a reliable money printer, find someone who has and join them.
- Got a remote-first job outside of crazily inflated tech money while still asking for tech money because the market for developer was crazy hot a few months ago.
The previous one wasn't too bad personally. I can't say I ever had problems finding a job, no matter the market. Network aggressively, sell yourself well.
Invest in people skills if you suck at it and you won't have problems landing a job, even during the recession.
However recessions have been getting shorter and shorter every time they occur.
I am currently freelancing with one major client. I only work 3 days a week which is great and I make a good amount of money. Client is a small company, seems financially secure, but eh could also go belly up I suppose. They offered me a fixed contract but it would be for less money than I now make freelancing, +4 days a week. Should I take less cash and less freedom for the security that a fixed contract would bring (and eventual governmental support of the company goes belly up)?
People have all kinds of theories about what will be best currency, and stockpile stuff they can't consume/use. Cover your basis first.
Invest in any skill that will enable you to produce something.
I was single and unmarried in 2008. Was working in a startup that made an innovative new kind of ads (SMS ads!!). Was laid off and spent the next year building the next TechCrunch. It flopped, of course, and I moved back to a day job later. But I would have never made that move had I not been fired.
My personal circumstances are different today and would not make such a move now. But if you are young and financially-covered, you should see that as an opportunity.
In both cases, the short answer is I got lucky. In 2001, I happened to be in an area that did not have a lot of exposure to the dotcom bubble. In 2008, I had just started at a new company after fleeing a sinking ship. Being in a big corporate environment gave me a place to hide.
Companies will use a recession to trim fat, tell you how lucky you are to be employed, and make you work harder for the job you have. Notice how little they cut from the ranks of middle management zoom wranglers. Remember how you're treated and move on as soon as the job market improves.
As with any time, cash helps. Having a partner that works helps. Community is important.
…except that people believe it will happen and by changing their behavior it will become self fulfilling.
I recommend you change nothing. Dollar cost average your purchases and continue with life as usual.
All this to say, I’ll probably look to start something. Anyone else down?
Someone will always pay for a highly effective person, but if you can't demonstrate why you are, you will be in trouble.
I don't see what's unhealthy about our economy besides the fact that super cheap money may be gone for awhile. Alright so companies like PLTR go down, whatever.
Get over having to enter your info twice and and fill out a form with the same thing too. This is intentional, it's to weed out the quitters.
Have a folder with everything you need in to fill out an application form in it.
Call the HR at your old jobs to verify the phone number is still correct and what your dates of employment were. Get over your embarrassment, they truly don't GAF and if you left on good terms (two weeks notice) they may ask you back.
Amazon warehouse isn't as bad as they make it out to be, avoid driving amazon and anything else amazon.
TL:DR; Non customer-facing part time job, be perfect for first 90 days.
I will bet you something that should hold its value. Looking around my house, I have a few bags of rice and pasta that I could put on the line. If you're right, that will probably be worth something!