I’m hoping later this year we start to get some breaks in the news cycles and see market recovery. Sentiment matters. Apple will still continue to innovate, Cloudflare’s launched a bunch of cool new stuff this week, lots of cool EV companies in the pipeline. The market will reflect this all sometime hopefully soon!
Typical knee-jerk reactions by publicly traded companies is to restrict hiring, restrict admin spending and possibly have layoffs. There are some companies posting positive quarterly results and their stock still moves down so this downturn isn't really something a company can do anything about. If employees are sitting on a bunch of grants/options there is a chance they might be worthless depending on how they're awarded.
I suspect the few trillion dollars pumped into the economy the last couple years is catching up with itself. At end of Q2 if GDP is down/slowed then I think someone will use whatever official wording they use for downfall/recession/slump/correction. And people will go "gee really?!?"
That said, having just bought a BA house, I'm mentally preparing to ride a long downswing or stagnation in home value. It will be interesting to see how much inflation softens the blow for real assets.
I'm not aiming to make any tech stock value plays, but watching physical goods manufacturers
This will be the 3rd time through an industry low point in my career. Most people will get through it. Some will retire, some change industries. As long as society itself does not collapse, we'll all get through it. (And if it does collapse, we'll have bigger fish to fry.)
It is very hard for small startups to offer something comparable to 200k salary and 200k a year in RSUs.
But if those packages are now worth 200/70, maybe a salary of 200k and stock options that might be worth a couple million look more more appealing, especially if someone is tired of a big company.
I have a few friends who have expressed this. They wanted to leave the bigcos, but felt like they couldn't because of the money they'd be walking away from. Now they said they're looking at fun startups since their Bigco stock grant is worth so much less.
The drop in inflated securities prices seems like its just the business cycle doing its thing. Take a look at the Wall St. Cheat Sheet. We're still at the Denial / Panic phase, but we'll get to the Anger / Depression phase in time.
Its a bit surprising to me there hasn't been _more_ tumult, given all that has been happening in the world the past few years.
On the other hand, this usually ends in a lot of layoffs, and I'm not exactly thrilled at that prospect.
Otherwise, my feeling is that this entire industry is ridiculously bubbly and "the stock market is just a graph of rich guys' feelings", money isn't real, etc. etc.
what happened was tech was wildly profitable and became overvalued. tons of capital is invested in US tech stocks thats why compensations are through the roof. but the stock inflation did not reflect technological progress, but rather too much capital, both printed us dollars and foreign capital (europe has no tech sector worth investing in sadly). Companies seemed to care more about making bank from an IPO than making actual money. That is going to change now, and we ll have to see some actual moneymaking tech.
It's also been at least 10 years now that HN is all about bloated frameworks that make tech dumb-proof but not more capable. i hope this will end now as well
Less sarcastically, I think it means this tax proposal is DOA
Fun times and it'd be a Fun Friday Close.