I’m heavily (50% of net worth) invested in broad EFTs in the classical “buy-and-hold/get-rich-slow” scheme.
There are many dimensions to the discussions around this approach, but the one aspect that nailed it for me at the end of the day was: “in the long run, the world economy always grows”.
But some days ago I thought: “What if that’s it? If that’s the level of economy the planet could reach, and it’s downhill from here for many, many decades? What if we have used up the fossil fuels we can use up without killing ourselves, if that’s all the sand we could use to build our buildings, if that’s the fertilizer we were able to produce, if that’s all the rare earths we could find to build the technologies for our renewables – but mainly, what if that is the amount of energy we could produce/harvest, and we simply cannot make the economy any larger?“
I mean, with all the inflation and stuff – maybe we are simply running out of everything…?
You can make houses out of mud and clay.
Some countries are turning garbage into fuel and using that fuel to power their homes and businesses.
The economy can always continue to grow. It doesn't always grow, but there's no real reason to expect that we are about to run out of everything.
The only thing that I'm concerned about us running low on is food. Localized food shortages are likely over the next couple of years and that can cause major instability which is not a pleasant experience historically speaking.
Even if the world economy stops growing, if the world population plateaus at a similar time, the standard of living for each individual may not go down with it.
With renewables and digital goods, we have also managed to start decoupling commerce of physical goods from economic growth, and I think it is likely, economic growth will continue for the foreseeable future despite having fewer resources.
If I overlook roughly:
- a lot of people
- a lot of people.
That lot of people can be separated into rich and poor (1-bit reduction). There are far more poor people than rich. The poor ones build clusters of different sizes. Usually the location of the many clusters is somewhat "in the neighbourhood" and so, one is able to identify bigger k-clusters In different parts of the world. The biggest clusters are also within the same k-cluster or, somehow, side-by-side. The k-clusters can only occupy the area which hasn't been occupied by the rich's clusters upfront. The area occupied by the richs upfront is usually good land what enables the rich to live prosper and develop, while the poors struggle for a living.
This leads to tensions. Tensions lead to conflicts. Conflicts lead to refugees. Refugees lead to fears & jealousy and xenophobia. That amplifies everything and the loop starts.
Economy and wealth is depending on resources. Like ones that can be sold and/or used, like oil, food, knowledge.. At certain point there must happen a pivot in the relationship between the poor and the rich, where the rich can not get anything useful from the poor anymore, and instead, the poor need rich's resources, so they're importing it. To keep up with the development speed of the rich, the poor need to get even more of the rich.. The rich need that for the economy of theirs. The loop closes after the last:
While all that happens, the poors need an assurance for the elderly theirs, which is kids. No money, mo' kids. That amplifies EVERYTHING.
So, the problem is the economy by itself, not the lack of resources bringing it to a halt, in my eyes
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady-state_economy [1] https://www.sharing.org/why-nations-need-to-share/conflict-o... [2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-lost-deca... [3] https://thebestinterest.medium.com/decades-of-zero-return-cc...
Warren Buffet has always advocated the idea of investing in the stock market because it will continue to grow. He also says that if the market ever falls apart to the point that it won't come back then he feels that things would be so bad that there would be so many worse problems that the investment won't matter.
I feel he's right so I stay invested.