Why did Russia invade Ukraine?

I don't think any single answer can take in all of the factors that led to current events. Sure, there's the assertion on the Russian side that two eastern oblasts were ethnically Russian and being persecuted. There's the assertion that those two provinces are also energy-rich and Russia wants to consolidate their energy holdings. And a land-path connection down to Crimea without going around the Sea of Azov is a nice benefit. Preventing Ukraine from entering NATO because no nation with an active territorial dispute can join NATO -- and because Russia wants a buffer zone between itself and any NATO country (not sure what they will do about Finland applying for NATO membership). There's the historical argument that Kiev is seen as the origin of Russian culture and they don't want to see Kiev and Ukraine align with western interests when historically they have formed and eastern bloc. These are just what comes to mind off the top of my head -- I'm sure there are literally dozens more reasons that could be cited as possible excuses for why Russia invaded.

Ultimately, they want a stronger foothold on the Black Sea, warm water ports and control of the Sea of Azov.

Russia "annexed Crimea" giving them some of those goals but they have only one way to reach it by land via a bridge and a long detour. Extending the "annexation" to the whole of south east Ukraine gives Russia two alternate land routes into Crimea and complete control over the Sea of Azov.

In my personal opinion, the invasion/annexation/war was always about Mariupol and a unbroken land corridor across the northern coast of the Sea of Azov. Everything else is a smoke screen/distraction/false pretext.

What the OSINT people here in Spain has been saying is a combination of this factors:

Material factors:

- Gas in Ukraine. Not only pipelines, but apparently there's plenty of reservoirs.

- Apparently there's also a pressing issue with water in Crimea.

- Industry. Ukraine retains a lot of industry and expertise from USSR, including expertise about how to build and maintain some of their nukes. Many advanced stuff was designed in Ukraine too.

- The buffer doctrine. Just put as much land between you and your potential enemies, as europe is pretty much a cone plain from Berlin to Moscow. Russia is pretty much indefensible on that regard as there are no natural accidents to help stopping enemies.

Inmaterial:

- Some shared views by the russian intelligentsia close to Putin and Putin himself, about some ehtno historical views about Russia, the Russians etc. Not clear how much this plays a role, and it's not yet clear to me what is it about, but they say it's there.

- Too many yes men around Putin. Aparently FSB and other agencies told this people what they wanted to hear. It's not clear to what extent this is common, but apparently they all believe this has a high probability of being true for at least this very issue.

Probably some other stuff I forget. They have been focusing on trying to get some sanity on TV, but without much success.

This scene in Spain is interesting as there's a retired General (Pedro Baños) who has been very hostile with this people. Before the invasion he mocked them as being NATO mouthpieces. He has a large following in Spain, so despite they try to ignore him, they get a lot of heat for it.

It’s simple geography. Russia wants the narrowest possible border with NATO, and so it views the area between Belarus and the Carpathian mountains as essential.

Because they have a dying old leader who has achieved nothing, and he felt bad about that.

Short answer: because Putin hates independent Ukraine that is slipping away for Russian.

Long explanation: https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-...

I think Putin thinks the Soviet Union was the high water mark of "his people" and would like to put the USSR back together as much as he can.