Are we seeing a start of the wider conflict?

Russia attacked what border areas of Poland? There was a missile strike 20 km in Ukraine, but no hit on Poland so far AFAIK?

I hope that Putin saying that the negotiations are a few days short of a breakthrough are not just lies and distractions, and that his losses have been substantial enough that he is willing to give up (= sign a peace treaty).

That would obviously be the best outcome for all and would put an end to any escalation.

What might happen instead is that this is only to buy time to do something nasty like a chemical attack, or slowly capturing one city after another, kidnapping the mayors and installing their own puppets.

How this might escalate is that Nato has already stated that if their convoys are attacked, they invoke Art. 5, and Putin has says that he considers the convoys valid targets.

USA should mind its own business and stop wasting our tax money to bully countries in the middle east. Anyone that supports this crap should be the full bearer of costs.