When will car prices normalize?

>What’s causing demand to be so high

When some people wants one, and there aren't enough, suddenly everyone wants one. Herd mentality.

>and when might that go down.

When there is enough for everybody, price will fall, and all of a sudden people will just decide to wait a little longer. ( So Called Demand disappeared )

>what’s causing supply to be low

Chips, COVID, Shipping, Containers Shortage, Gas Price, GeoPolitics and War. It is quite literally the perfect storm on Supply Chain.

>when might that go up?

When we over estimate the so called demand and over invest into the supply capacity.

Ditto housing. I just can't believe that people are able to afford the prices of the past 1-2 years and many must be paying beyond their means? I know Blackrock and other parasites are scooping up housing too, but that's not the majority of buying.

Some of it is probably caused by supply chain disruption. Some of it could be related to people moving due to the pandemic related changes - leaving some areas (crime/health/political concerns), moving for work or because it's remote now, more room for home/remote schooling or work, etc. Some of it could be minimized using inflation adjustment.

I think many people are living at or beyond their means. There are a lot of people (still a small minority though) that have a lot of money and are willing to use it. Who bothers saving suffiently for retirement? Many people don't make enough to adequately save for retirement. Most of the people who do have the income would rather have a bigger or fancier house and a brand new Tesla/BMW/etc, possibly because they think they will always be making that level of money or are out of touch with reality.

For example, I had a manager who had a big house in a nice area, Tesla, another EV, 3 kids with college funds, etc. He said something like everyone (at the company) should be contributing the max ($20k) to their 401k every year. WTF? Most of us make under $100k and can't afford to save that much, especially with a family to support and a mortgage. We aren't all managers with a physician for a wife. Completely out of touch.

JP Morgan reckons things will be back to normal by 2025. I imagine the war in the Ukraine and its impact on neon production (necessary for the lasers that are needed make chips) will push that out a bit further though.

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/supply-chain-chip...

Demand will go down as gas keeps climbing. The days of $3 gas are fairly gone. Time to start seriously considering alternatives.

I think what is happening is that in a normal economy, new cars are readily available, and the market for used cars is replenished not only with individual owners selling the cars they originally bought new, but also with off-lease and fleet sales. However, there has been supply chain problems that led to problems in the new car market. Many dealers have fewer cars available (and in many cases dealerships tack on large surcharges), and if you want a car with the exact feature you want, you may need to place a special order, which can take many months to fulfill. If you can wait for the special order, this may be a reasonable approach. However, many people on the car market need a car immediately. Thus, with the problems facing the new car market, more people are looking at used cars. But with increased demand combined with decreased supply, used car prices have skyrocketed. I also imagine that the demand for fuel-efficient cars and EVs will increase due to very high gas prices.

I don’t imagine the situation returning to “normal” until the supply chain issues are resolved. Even then, it will take a while for used car inventory to get replenished. This is anecdotal, but in my experience price inflation tends to stick; unless there is a glut of cars, I don’t expect used car prices to drop to pre-pandemic levels.

I am currently sitting at a Honda dealership in Los Angeles, just talked to a salesman.

Info:

- ~25 new cars on the lot compared to 200+ before shortages. He said they have a good amount of used cars. Funny enough 15 minutes after they took my car they call me and ask if I want to sell my car to them!

- Lease prices are double what they were 2 years ago when I looked. Specifically Civic sedans were ~$250/month with $3k down but now are closer to $600!

- $5k over MSRP on everything which they say "can be worked on" but that seems to be the current standard. I went to Subaru few months back and it was the same.

- For financing, manager said around 3.9% interest is around the lowest they do in-house (assuming max perfect credit). Not sure what auto loans are like with big banks at the moment.

So until shortages normalize buying a new car is just not a wise financial decision (at least for me). $30k+ for a Honda is just pretty bad. With $700/month to finance I'd rather get a Model 3. With gas prices and the $800 maintenance I'm paying just for today it's looking like a good option.

If anyone is interested in current maintenance cost breakdown on my car I will update this post when i get my bill in an hour or so ballpark $800 total.

I'm pretty sure those 15 mpg mega trucks and SUVs will be cheap soon.

Asking about prices normalizing is a different concern than affordability or availability. Do you regularly buy AND sell, flip cars, or are you concerned about regret after purchase when prices change?

Fortunately we have the market mechanism to fluidly adjust to this, weirdness can just flow through the system and cause trouble minorly and incrementally.

To address the question as asked:

Normalize? Welcome to weirding.

> What’s causing demand to be so high, and when might that go down, and what’s causing supply to be low, and when might that go up?

Geopolitical instability, from cutting back of American power projection, covid-19 slowdowns & supply-shock echoes, at least, all have a place. Hopefully global warming response movements, and walkable cities make the question less relevant. When demand grows more, or inputs (including shipping) get cheaper (including more predictable, forecastable)

I know some of the supply side difficulties come down to electronics supply issues: We had a bunch of new, built cars just sitting in parking lots here (MI) that were complete except for some of their electronic components. It was bizarre to drive past dozens of unused shiny cars while people in town can't buy a car at a decent price.

I'd expect this aspect of the problem to stabilize in a few years at most, because if the components continue to be a problem, the car companies will either start making cars without them again (I wish but unlikely) or secure their own components' supply.

After the Crypto/Speculation/Housing bubble bursts.

But don't worry, you won't have enough for car then, either.

Right now we're playing the gambling game of sinking the cost of fixing our old, high mileage car rather than paying the inflated prices. The question of course is how long do we hold out (or will the car hold out) in the cost of fixing becoming more expensive then the inflated costs.

I mean with the surge of gasoline/electricty going through the roof, I'm only considering monthly subscription based options now I can just cancel if the cost of using the car is too much.

I always loved cars, but what's the point of them now?

Car prices are normalized, this is the new price, and unless people stop buying them, that price is not going to change even if supply chain issues are fixed.