Were there any analysts, historians, stock traders, redditors, HNers, conventional or AI systems, tarot card readers, shamans, etc. who correctly predicted that Russia would attack -- invade -- Ukraine 'in the next three' months or similar?
There are plenty of sports analysts on ESPN, for example, who will say things like:
> If Lebron plays like an MVP, they will likely win the chip. But if Lebron plays like less than an MVP, then they might not win it all. But maybe not either or both.
Highly qualified 'nothing' statements like this are not interesting.
I'm talking about someone who publicly staked their reputation on their prediction -- someone who was so convinced of their correctness and the soundness of the facts of the case and the competing interests and dynamics -- that they were willing to actually say it out loud and/or in print.
To me, now, looking back on it, it seems completely predictable -- and I feel like it only took me fifteen minutes to learn the relevant background and come to this conclusion -- which suggests to me that most serious analysts would have had to have been pretty confident (>90%) that this invasion would happen. In other words, any serious analyst should have predicted this.
On a side note, I do think it's funny how I, upon knowing about the Russian buildup on the Ukrainian border, and paid some attention to it, would not have immediately declared publicly and loudly, "They're going to invade you/we **** idiots! We have to do something!"
I think back to WWII and similar scenarios when you read about troop/border buildups and think, "Gosh -- how asleep/gullible did the whole world have to be to _not_ understand what was happening? IDIOTS."
Well, now I'm one of those who was too asleep / gullible / IDIOTIC.
And I think if we're being honest, that's probably 99% of the world or more.
Well, I was right and Putin was wrong to think that he can discount Europeans.
It could be that the order to attack wasn't really planned. Putin doesn't seem to be the impulsive type, but maybe something happened.
Although Russia did warn that it was ready to initiate a war. The real analysts the should get credibility are those that said that war with Russia is becoming more probable for a few decades now. Short term prediction like that he would attack in three month are nothing more than bets in my opinion. It does not infer credibility or knowledge.