HACKER Q&A
📣 trifit

Where can we see simulations of a nuclear war?


Curious on any resources on potential fallout and wind carried radiation clouds.


  👤 techdragon Accepted Answer ✓
I’d like to recommend the game DEFCON by Introversion Software. It’s not a proper war simulation but it is an excellent game/simulation regarding the concept of MAD. It’s fundamentally a game where you win by not being the biggest loser. It covers the building tensions and eventual first send and even third strike nuclear warfare quite well from a simplistic high level.


👤 Everhusk
Here's a quick post on it https://twitter.com/earthsukh/status/1498577111296221188

It's based on this video from Prof. Brian Toon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzwHbHlK5kI, who to my knowledge has done the most in depth studies on it.


👤 admissionsguy
There is a recent (2019) Princeton study of a large scale nuclear war between NATO and Russia [1]. They assume most strikes would be against military targets and predict immediate fatalities of "just" around 3% of the NATO+Russia's total population. While that does not count fallout and indirect effects, it seems far from apocalyptic (although some areas/countries are certain to be absolutely devastated). The more I read about it, the less clear it is to me that globally, a nuclear war would be worse than a large-scale WW2-style conventional conflict (during which, for example, over 20% of Polish population died).

On a more granular scale, Nukemaps [2], which probably everyone knows by now, shows the area of fallout for a given blast based on real-time wind data.

[1] https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war

[2] https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/


👤 tgamblin
Not a nuclear war simulation, but what you’re asking about is the mission of NARAC at LLNL: https://narac.llnl.gov

NARAC monitors and predicts the spread of wind/water carried nuclear, biological, chemical, and other hazardous materials in emergencies. You can see videos of recent responses on their website; the highest profile one was probably the Fukushima disaster (if you remember the various evacuation recommendations, NARAC guided the US ones). Here are some more: https://narac.llnl.gov/about/timeline, including the Eyjafjallajökull volcano.

They run in some of their own (comparatively) smaller clusters for quick turnaround simulations, as well as on LLNL’s bigger HPC systems (https://hpc.llnl.gov/hardware/compute-platforms) when there’s a need.


👤 Dracophoenix
They're not simulations of nuclear war per se, but read up on the Sigma War Games.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigma_war_games



👤 fbhabbed

👤 yogsototh
not really a simulation but the movie “threads” gives what seems to be a very crude and realistic potential scenario viewed from the population standpoint.

👤 Tepix
Are there any estimates on the effect on world climate if we launch 10 nukes? 50? 100? 500? 1000?

👤 Daniel1Rosen
If Russia is prevented from destroying military facilities in Ukraine, we will see nuclear war with our own eyes.

👤 hodgesrm
Why do you want to know?

This is a serious question. I'm asking because I find the hobby-level interest in nuclear war kind of offensive. It trivializes a profound threat to humanity.