What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?

IMO--They are stirring various things up and pushing boundaries outward in order to determine the most-current boundaries and principles which apply to their geopolitical position.

They'll use this to inform their localized (3-6 month scope) game plan. (And they'll execute no matter what, it's just a matter of how and where--always executing is their psychological burden.) Their strength is contextual analysis informing quick execution. Their military preference is to play the trickster role, with a cat-like approach. Tactical plans aimed a spike in execution (sprints, like a cat hunting) meant to gain a disproportionately intimidating result. Flexing.

Their blind spots include refinement, culture, global persona, capture of popular will, and logistics. So the most obvious responses for the west would include engaging and bearing down on each one of those virtual fronts for extended periods of time. The west could also use this situation to place immense pressure on China.[1]

PS, the west could also really benefit from this opportunity to build more settling space for recent internal civil conflicts. If western governments are smart that's exactly how this'll play out. Russia is obviously complicit in these conflicts from an evidentiary standpoint so engagement with them at all reasonable levels could be an equitable way to direct the tensions & focus.

1. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Ukraine-cris...

Right now Moscow continues to demand that Kiev implements the Minsk agreement, specifically constitutional reform, separatist region autonomy. Kiev demands full control of the regions’ border with Russia before going ahead with the agreement.

This impasse has been ongoing ever since the deal was inked.

Every now and then Moscow escalates trying to push Kiev to implement the agreement. It now seems to be more serious (or desperate) than ever.

I wish I could recall the reference (as the below is not my original thinking), but I’ve Heard something along the following postulated:

1. Russia has a deep seated psychological worry about invasion from the west across the open plains of Eastern Europe (Poland/Ukraine) (Napoleanic wars, Ww 1, ww2) so creating a buffer is of geostrategic importance (old Soviet Warsaw Pact / satellite states. Merely having a nato member bordering Russia may stoke this anxiety (if Ukraine were to join nato)

2. The window for action is closing driven by a)population decline b) decreasing foreign reliance and wealth created from Russian energy wealth (oil/ nat gas)

Putin is batshit crazy, he is mentally regressing to Cold War. Russia is a failed state: corruption, inequality, extraction based economy, no technology beyond military and dire demographics. Once hydrocarbons lose value, Russia have is just vast empty space with expensive infrastructure.

Instead of reforming the country, he will continue to play strong, warlike despot. His main goal is self-preservation. Using propaganda and by creating conflicts, he will continue to stay in power[1]. His current goal is to force Ukraine and West for concessions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses

To me, as a layman, it seems like a minor stratagem in a bigger plan. They don't really care about Ukraine. They want to create a crisis that would put them in a position to more favourably negotiate something else they really want. I suspect that's the gas pipeline making the entirety of Europe much more dependent on them.

Create an unrelated shit show in order to create a favourable position for some other negotiation seems to be a frequent tactic in today's politics.

I'm from Russia and late to the party. Funny that nobody doubts that it is Russia's engdame (you could have showed at least some critical judgement). I don't really know what the Russia's endgame is. But I think that we don't have many years of MAD left. Rather soon (during my lifetime) Russia's technological gap is going to become huge enough for nuclear weapons stop matter anymore.

It's making people flip out over the security of European gas supplies. Prices have been rocketing. Russia supplies 40%+ of Europe's gas so not only do they stand to profit directly from instability, they can leverage a threat of cutting the supply entirely for political and security gain.

Might be less believable if we hadn't just seen this same play performed in the Persian gulf.

My take: There might not be a clearly defined endgame. The point is the tension itself. By keeping us guessing and talking, Russia maintains a flexible position while keeping everyone mystified. It almost doesn’t even matter if they attack, as long as we’re thinking and talking about it.

If you’re thinking of a more long-term end-game for Russia, I would recommend reading about the Primakov Doctrine.

In my opinion this video had a decent set of views around the intent and reasons for the timing. [1] I think it's worth at least listening to in the background. If they are right it might explain the end-game.

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ExRbjmcf-8

Russia doesn't want to invade and take over Ukraine. Yes, they just want to create troubles in the Donbas region. Unlike Crimea, Donbas doesn't bring them any benefit, just more headaches. And of course, given the russian stories during the last five years, the media and their cronies in the governments want to wage a war there.

They are upfront about it, neutrality from the countries around their border

NATO continuing to send troops and arms to countries sourounding Russia is like trying to provoke an attack

The situation in Ukraine is much like Syria, but the other way around, USA supporting the government, Russia the rebels. Of a government that celebrates Nazism

Crimea had been a gift from the USSR to Ukraine as good faith for them to keep being neutral. Funny how it turned out

If this was happening in USA border like Mexico, people wouldn't even be discussing this, USA would already have invaded Mexico in the name of "National security" and everyone would be clapping for freedom

The simple answer is to ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO. Secondary answer is to secure more seaports.

My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history:

Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems reasonable to me, given Russian history, and the fact that less than 100 years ago their society was nearly eradicated by Nazis. So the Russians are always wary of other powers and are always concerned about their borders.

Now, since the end of the Cold War, Russia has lost quite a lot of territory. This territory has all been snapped up by NATO, even though the Cold War was apparently over. NATO has now slowly expanded to the point that it is right up on Russia's border in the Baltics. The Russians look at this, and look at the failures of "shock therapy" economics in the 90s, and look at their demographic crunch, and look at the increasingly unstable political situation of their Western neighbors. They conclude that now is the last and best possible time to make an aggressive chess move against the West, and snatch up Ukraine before the West can.

So that's what this is about - it's a response of geopolitical insecurity. Russia thinks the West is very aggressive and unstable, and seeks to put Ukraine in its "sphere of influence" before it's too late. To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada?

If Ukraine is going to attack the separatists then Russia would have little choice. They are probably positioning to grab additional gains whence that happens.

I'm not sure what additional gains they can attempt, but I feel Russia has fallen into a trap she created a few years ago.

Putin's plan is that a real democracy (as opposed to a "democracy" where the party in power always wins) cannot be allowed to happen in a country that is culturally close to Russia. It might give the Russians ideas.

Had the West accepted the request* of Russia to join NATO, we wouldn't have seen the emergence of cold-war again! After the disintegration of USSR, the West went into triumphalism-mode rather than showing humility.

* This request was by Putin few years before the Afghan war. Russia at that time was sharing intelligence with the US on the dangers of the Taliban to the West. In the initial phases of the invasion Russia also provided some logistical support to the Western forces.

I think Putin really does not want to have NATO member countries on his border and he is afraid that Ukraine will end up joining NATO or at least becoming very closely aligned with them. He may have hoped to bluff his way to getting concessions to limit further NATO expansion. If that doesn't work he may invade if he thinks the rewards outweigh the risks.

MRGA

it's all a game https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=+байден+в...

It seems like Putin wants to regain all / most of the lands that were in the USSR.

It would be based on nostalgia and dreams for Russia to take on the greatness that the USSR had when he was a young man.