But here's the thing: I think someone else could take the same product and write down the steps to turn it into a $100MM or $250MM acquisition instead of a $10M acquisition. Same starting point - very different ending. And I predict, very different steps.
ASSUME that it's a successful product that COULD result in a $250MM acquisition. My problem is three-fold:
Problem 0: I'd like to perform the steps necessary for a $250MM acquisition;
Problem 1: I don't know (and can't derive by thinking really hard) the steps necessary to make that happen;
Problem 2: I don't know the subject areas to study and learn in order to be able to derive the steps for Problem #1.
This is a problem of education, not a problem of intelligence or capability.
So, I would like to Ask HN: What specific subjects should I learn that would lead me down the right path? Which of these subjects should I do a deep-dive, and which should I do a shallow-dive? Please help me solve problem #2 so that I can solve problem #1 myself, so that I can then execute and solve Problem #0 myself. (Any non-trivial suggestions for Problem #1 are also welcomed)
Also, am I even asking the right questions in this post? Am I correct to focus on education, or should I focus on something else such as building new kinds of relationships (if so what kind)? What sorts of questions should I be asking instead of the ones in this post (and what are the answers to those questions)?
Thanks in advance to all that reply!
OK, first, perform the steps for $10M.
The steps to get to 250 do not begin differently than the steps to get to 10. So first get to 10. While you are on the way, research getting from 10 to 100. While you are on that path, research getting from 100 to 250. The best growth patterns I've been a part of always had that approach - have a long-term vision, but execute one step at a time.
You're saying "acquisition price", but let's just call it a valuation. Sure, they aren't exactly the same thing, but it's a fair enough proxy.
So, first off, take a look at what you're building. Can you list companies that would want to purchase it for $100M+? How many companies are in that list? Now, look at the financials of those companies, how many acquisitions have they done that are in the range of $100M? What did the companies they acquired at that price look like? Why did they pay what they paid?
Now, look at your product, and the potential market size, do you see similarities between companies that have been acquired by your target acquirers? Is the market you're targeting even big enough to offer enough value to these potential acquirers? If it is, how large does your company need to be to get that acquisition value? Or what edge does your company need to have?
Based on the information you have on this search, you now know what companies you may be targeting, what they've bought in the past, and you can start building relationships with these companies.
I'm going to suggest that almost no company gets bought without a relationship in place. It doesn't mean that you're partners, but you're unlikely to get a call in the middle of the night from a stranger asking to buy your company. It just doesn't work that way.
A) potential value - if the tech is innovative and novel but the company is not necessarily making a lot of profit, they may have a business plan to leverage the tech to generate more profit
B) actual value - the tech and company is mature, profitable and has an actual ROI value that can be calculated based on sales, revenue, margins etc.
They would also include:
C) team value - the company has a strong team and the value of the management and employees is considered
These are areas I would consider in your plan. In terms of what to learn, I would focus more on building a successful product that helps your customers, than focusing on the acquisition exit goal. You will have time to figure out how to get there when you've proven that you have a valuable company.
It's essentially legal money laundering with pre-negotiated kickback-style relationships where all parties are on the same side of the table regardless of how it looks to unaware.
So having connections - OR hiring someone to facilitate the transaction via pre-existing connections can greatly accelerate the process.
So if you plan to build a product and charge $10/mo you'll need to have 30,000 active users to sell the company for $10m using a common 33-month revenue multiple. So once you have 30k customers add 720k more to get to $250m.
Unless you're already making $1 million in ARR, your cockiness is already a sign that an acquisition probably is unlikely to happen. Many founders who get their startup acquired almost always have this feeling of "Wow, I worked hard, but there were definitely no guarantees and a lot of luck involved". Sorry, but there is no guarantees in startup life.
Can you send me an email (my email is in my profile) and I'll try to connect you if they're open to this?
I must talk with one of them in a moment, would you like me to mention this?
I can also try to connect you with people from the puchasing side (people who operated, and executed, multi-billion dollar acquisitions and companies)
I think you are asking the wrong question. Your questions should be either:
How do I get the guy who can sell it for 250m to sell this
or
How do I become the guy who can get 250m.
If you think someone can build it differently to get to 250m find out who and bribe,hire,copy and learn from them.