Also, what surprises didn't you expect that happened in your country or globally as a result of the pandemic?
Prediction: I thought that people might re-evaluate travelling by air as a result of the pandemic. Not only because of the spread of the virus at lightning speed, but that it might make us pause to consider the consequences of flying and climate change.
I was wrong.
After more than a year of lockdown for many countries, people are itching to fly again. The pent-up urge to resume flights seems overwhelming (climate be damned!). I think demand will be particularly strong in Western Europe which has been spoilt for years by cheap flights that often cost less than a train ticket.
Prediction: More car travel in order to avoid crowded buses or trains. I'm not sure if this has happened or not. So, I'll mark this predication as 'outcome unknown'.
Unpleasant surprise: Housing bubble - this is UK-specific. With so much uncertainty over the economy I expected a cautious, subdued housing market. Instead the opposite has happened. A temporary housing tax exemption ('stamp duty') from the government has sent house prices skyrocketing. There may also be pressure on housing from people looking to moving to new areas as a result of more remote work. As always, more demand than supply means housing prices just continue to rise.
So, what were your pandemic predictions and surprises?
I predicted that corona wouldn't do much for environmental concerns. This is because the incentives are wrong. If you forbid people to fly they will want to fly. Forbid drugs they want drugs. One of the most famous and anecdotal stories is the story of how the potato became accepted as a crop in Europe: Count Dauphin, after surviving a prolonged prison stay and being sustained on solely potatoes, believed the potato was a miracle crop.
He started a marketting campaign to get farmers to grow the crop. But all the farmers he asked balked at the idea. He even tried to pay farmers to grow the crop!
The more he tried to push the crop on the farmers the more resistance he encountered.
It was hopeless. Until he thought up a cunning plan: he planted a field with potatoes and made a big show of having guards guarding his "miracle crop". The guards were secretly instructed to not catch thieves though and within a few months all the farmers in the surrounding area had a potato crop growing.
One prediction that I completely got wrong: that this pandemic would be different from the Spanish flu and that we would be in control in 6 months. The housing price bubble.
Unpleasant surprise: The leadership spent all its time deflecting blame and denying science, focusing on getting re-elected more than actually Governing. The resulting lies and distortions created a level of distrust that has resulted in an unconscionable level of death and suffering.
Prediction: I'd keep wearing masks long after I was required to do so.
Surprise: I can't believe how quickly I accepted the CDC statement that I no longer needed to wear a mask in most places. (We're all vaccinated)
Prediction: If I got infected, I'd die.
Surprise: I didn't die, it wasn't even that bad. But now I'm perpetually fatigued, a "new normal". (The 2 most dreaded words in health care)
Not UK specific. Housing prices have shot up all around the developed world.