Is there a chance that in 10 years everybody is using native mobile apps on desktops?
Chuckling...
IMO the biggest driver already is and will be app store/platform policies. Fundamental hardware constraints are secondary.
PWA trumps mobile apps — until or unless it can be articulated why a PWA/hybrid app won’t work, but that is the small minority of app cases.
ARM has a huge problem with compatibility and secrecy.
Buy a random intel machine .... will it run Windows and Linux? YES.
Buy a random ARM device..,, will it run Linux? Maybe, probably not, even if it does, probably there’s problems and issues caused by the CPU vendor keeping aspects of its design secret.
ARM is a very very long way from replacing Intel.
Chromebooks run android apps today.
Windows computers will run android apps with BlueStacks or a similar emulator.
Until mobile apps can do EVERYTHING that desktops apps do, desktop apps are here to stay.