Does anyone know how lottery, gambling, or games of chance businesses calculate the operating liquidity they need to keep reserved on a daily basis in order to pay out winning games?
I'm leading a team doing academic research on the Hot Hand Fallacy (HHF) prevalent in number selection for games of chance. We are specifically looking at lottery games, and in some of the real world data we're working with, HHF can considerably skew number selection towards "streaking" numbers (when the same number repeatedly wins across drawings). In unique circumstances, HHF can cause a significant spike in player selection of these numbers, causing a highly disproportionate liability to the lottery operator.
While research on HHF and other types of phenomenon are still being studied, it seems likely that the businesses operating these games necessarily account for events like these in keeping cash reserves to cover returns-to-player.
Does anyone know how these businesses calculate their operating liquidity needs, and if so, do they account for events like this which skew the probability of the games they are offering?