Also, there a model which Trump is following that predicts 80k American lives will fall by August 2020 to COVID-19, which is turning out to be prophetic.
Are there other COVID-19 simulation models which have turned out to be presciently accurate?
Most of the models have been revised as we get new information. Since there is still a lot we don't know about the virus, it is very likely that the models will be updated again when we get that new information. For instance, what if it recurs seasonally?
My opinion is that we won't be able to provide truely accurate estimates for something which is so new, so unstudied, and rapidly changing (policies or virus mutations). We can say stuff like the US death toll for the year won't be measured in millions, and most would agree that would be accurate with what we know now.
https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim
Seems like a game of simcity, honestly. With so many parameters that are not very precisely known, it's easy to go into fantasyland. On second look, this model has not been used to reproduce the epidemiology of a previous , real world infection. weird
i think you re more likely to get accurate predictions with typical SEIR models
BTW this is the model the US uses (i think): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v...
It's statistical in nature, so closer to real world