Will this be the end of Airbnb?

One thing I think we'll definitely see is a reduction in the amount of apartments available for rent on AirBnB. I've seen reports that after lockdowns went into place in Portland OR and SF, that there were thousands of new units listed on proper real-estate websites for long-term lease. That tells me that landlords who were taking units off the housing market and using them for short-term rentals, might have fewer AirBnB units after this is all done. For a while at least I think AirBnB will be more of the "rent a spare room in our house" units again, rather than the entire apartment in a major city that's displacing a long-term resident.

Seems like the market exists for what they offer. Even if this wipes out airbnb in the short term another company will serve the need in the long term, baring new laws. Basically you'd need to see hospitality industry lobbyists get some new laws passed murdering them as part of some sort of relief package.

I think a lot of these answers are missing the point. I agree, AirBnB won't die, and they'll be able to grow back into a solid business when this all over.

However, AirBnB's original plan was to explode into cities before governments had a chance to react, and that once governments reacted they would have an entrenched, powerful constituency (landlords) who would help fight for them at the local level.

That advantage is now gone. All cities now have a strong opinion over whether they think AirBnB is a good thing, so as this pandemic nears completion there will be plenty of cities who will outright ban AirBnB, and any disruption that may have previously been caused by this action before coronavirus is now a moot point.

We operate 2 units out of our home. They were converted from rentals. They were REALLY crappy rentals though and essentially illegal to rent out anymore - lacking access to laundry facilities, kitchens, etc. But they are comfortable and spacious and in a nice part of town, so they have made excellent Airbnbs.

Housing shortages in our area are a huge problem - any apartment complex proposal dies in city hall, so they are essentially banned. The only source of new units are hotels. Our units are slightly more expensive than renting, but still an amazing deal over an equivalent hotel. And a quarter of the cost goes to local taxes (we're taxed at a higher rate than the hotels, btw).

Coronavirus has dropped Airbnb rates across the board - but occupancy has been about the same (market pricing in action). We have noticed a ton more interest in long term rentals (a. because it's so cheap, and b. a lot of people have bizarre living situations right now), so if anything income is a lot more consistent right now.

Airbnb's cut isn't that affected. It's still bizarre how much they make off of a unit considering how little they provide. Their insurance never pays out - their website and app are embarrassingly bad.

I live in touristy city, and I wish nothing more than to see Airbnb crash and die.

Finding rent here is mission impossible, most landlords will happily rent to you for a contract that ends at the start of the summer, then you have to figure out where to live for 3 months.

Housing prices are impossibly expensive compared to local salaries, and landlords would rather keep a place empty for an occasional airbnb than have a full-time tenant (that has a lot of legal protection regarding eviction).

My prediction is that this summer season is dead, and that many places will go back to regular renting, I hope they never go back to Airbnb again.

I hope not and if it does, I hope Kamernet goes down with it. Your company is taxing students for essentially nothing but an introduction. And it has been doing that for decades. Not that I would normally mind your existence, but I do now I hear what you are hoping and likely lobbying for.

I think you can make a reasonable case that, if we have a recession, it will be OK for Airbnb. Maybe even good for them.

During a recession, people look for ways to economize, and one way is to downgrade housing. For example, people who did live alone will get a roommate, people will move to a smaller place, and some younger people will move back in with their parents.

If this does happen, then occupancy rates (for normal leases, not short-term rentals) will drop in many places, making landlords more interested in alternative ways to fill empty units. That could work in Airbnb's favor.

In a recession, people would also have less disposable income for travel. That will hurt Airbnb but it could also help them because travelers could prefer it as a cheaper alternative to a hotel. During recessions, budget-oriented businesses (like discount stores) tend to do better.

airbnb has no serious liabilities, in terms of real estate, on their balance sheets.

if they can go cockroach mode, and reduce spending (should be easy with discipline and layoffs), they’ll still be a multi billion dollar company in 2021-2022.

and i say this thinking they’re ultimately a cancer on society.

Many countries already require you to provide an address when entering (for visa-free visits) or when applying for a visa. This is not a new phenomenon.

We will probably see a cursory medical test at borders. This will become more complex over time as the technology develops.

Cities (and tax-paying hosts) make a ton of tax revenue from AirBnb, much of which wouldn’t otherwise exist. I don’t expect any total shutdowns.

They're included in the bailout package that just passed [1] so no they're not going anywhere.

1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/a-guide-t...

This is pretty absurd as your hypothesis makes no sense. The drive for revenue is going to override any government demand for oversight. Any government stupid enough to put up this would kill tourism which is the lifeblood of many cities. Money speaks and I don't see any government enacting this anywhere irrespective of AirBnb being there or not.

Now for Airbnb I am taking the reverse and contraion position that they will actually come out this ahead of most hospitality companies. Simple they don't own any assets and have the ability to ratchet down or up depending on the macro-environment. Also let's be honest here is that host will come back as its a another way for them to monetize their assets especially the economic situation right now.

I'd prefer to see a revival of multi-family homes. It feels like there needs to be a middle ground for people who can afford to buy multiple houses but can't afford to buy apartment complexes.

"Investors" taking away from the single-family market in order to have airbnb-style rentals probably wasn't at the forefront of the founders' minds when they started it but they've done nothing to try to bring attention to it and the impact it is having on people who are ready to make the move from being a renter to being a homeowner.

Just sharing my friend experience, she had to end her exchange study early from Europe (due to recent escalation) and back to Taiwan. My friend however, wasn't a Taiwanese and require a place for her 14 days self isolation. She ended up finding an Airbnb willing to host her during the self isolation period (hotel usually have a central ventilation which isn't optimal for self isolation).

Nope, their main money drain is people and people that they don't really need at that.

Does it take the thousands of people they have to support a couple of apps and a website + user support? No.

You were already given some nice answers. Mind you, in many countries, a huge chunk of AirBnB stays are domestic not international.

If quarantine measures are lifted, it means that Corona is out so why would the government want to track tourists more?

I don't see why they would since their expenses are essentially marketing and R&D. And they've stopped marketing and instituted a hiring freeze. Perhaps some layoffs might happen but I highly doubt that this is a death sentence for them more than Expedia et. al.

Also: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headli...

No.

That s mostly an issue for airports, and health officials, cities cant expect all landlords to test their tenants regularly. Airbnb owns no properties, they ll go in recess and probably scale down but i see no reason it s the “end”

In thr meanwhile, it will be transformed to a platform for normal, long term rents

(If anything, trusted, and possibly provably tested renters from airbnb will be preferred )