What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

People are acting as though we're going back to a pre-industrial economy with this. It's not true. The power isn't going out. The water will continue to come out of the tap.

So my suggestion short term is: learn to cook if you don't know how to. Not fancy, haute cuisine, but how to take whatever's in the pantry and make something tasty out of it. Learn how to grow some produce in small spaces, even if it's just herbs.

Learn how to not spend money. How to reduce your energy and water usage. How to do basic repairs and projects yourself. What you have to buy in a time of logistical disruption is time. If you can increase the time you can be without income from a month to four months or from six months to two years, that is a remarkable difference in your resilience.

Skills are tactics. Dealing with a recession is about strategy.

Most importantly: this is a time to focus on reducing risks, rather than maximizing profit.

This is a crappy time to start a startup or being a freelancer. Keep your job, build your skills, save money, and start in a few years.

Think about your job's security: Pay attention to your employers annual/quarterly reports. Which industries does your employer sell to? Travel, restaurants, hotel, retail, small businesses will be the worst hit, with little money to spend.

This is also a bad time to change jobs - depending on your local laws, it probably is much, much easier to lay off someone who just started.

Maybe broaden your skillls. In good times, it is more profitable to be a specialist - e.g. much better to be THE leading expert on scaling wordpress, rather than an all-purpose linux admin. In bad times, when jobs are scarce, being less of a specialist increaes the number of jobs you are suitable for.

Save money, lower your burn-rate, extend your runway - usually meant for start-ups, but this goes for your personal finances just as well

Become familiar with laws and benefits from the government for unemployment, lay-offs etc - if you should happen to find yourself unemployed, know what you have to do, how much assistance you can expect.

That being said: If you have a high risk-tolerance, and can afford to, now is also a great time to start a business or to invest, simply because nobody else is, so there is much less competition for everything.

Cooking from basic ingredients. Growing a basic seasonal garden. Finding ways to be happy with less and appreciate the simple pleasures in life. Placing value on human relationships more than material things. The art of conversation. Enjoying simple/affordable/accessible hobbies.

Honestly, I don’t believe we will see a huge depression unless there is war. People are still available for work and all the equipment used for producing value is in good conditions. So long as government provides fiscal stimulus, depression shouldn’t happen.

In case it happens though, you are better of farming stuff like potatoes and chicken than developing software until government steps in with fiscal stimulus, though it will require some existing capital.

Math and physics carried me through two recessions so far. I never got rich, but also never poor.

If you can learn how to repair things there will always be need of that in a siege. Returning value from utter losses will be of great need.

edit

For a couple simple examples consider the bic lighter. The strikers are made well enough it is possible to refill them and reuse them several times. Here is a video I made on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fnnDu-_hso

possibly not the best video but it just shows it isn't very hard.

What about a ventilator that needs a part? Not hard for someone who knows a lot about 3d printing.

while we see some industries taking a hit during this crises, we also see many others soaring with the rise of distributed and remote work. Software products targeting this field will get even more relevant and jobs will likely flourish. That is why I believe having software/management skills are still relevant in the short/long-term.

Mental self-care and acceptance of negative experiences. Working out in small areas/body weight exercises. Cooking on a budget. Getting out of your own head and own problems and into thinking about other people, is also immensely psychologically healthy.

Communication never hurts. Being able to distill ideas down to their actionable core and spot miscommunication before it derails things is useful in any context.

Speaking as an also-generalist, I think it's actually a good place to be. My whole career has been pretty much "Here's something you've never seen before, an we need it fixed.". People who can do that will always be in demand.

Beyond that, consider the Epicurean Tetrapharmakos

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrapharmakos

especially point three. If you think about it, what you truly need to survive is easier had than you might think.

It's a recession, not an apocalypse. These are kind of old news:

1. Budgeting. Know exactly where your money goes and what dials you can turn.

2. It's less about skills than products and services. So it becomes a better time to be a Costco or a cobbler (which helps people save money) than to be a Tesla (which helps people spend money).

For software, my suspicion is infinite monthly SaaS subscriptions will come under more scrutiny. And it might be a bad time to run a money-bleeding self-driving car startup. But that's my only firm guess at this point.

I still think there is plenty of demand for web developers.

If you have time on your hands and know some basic programming then might I suggest learning some web technologies. Even if you can't land a job quickly you can make some income being an indie hacker too (though you may need to learn at least a few marketing skills and SEO)

My thought is that this virus will have passed through the world, one way or another, in 4-8 months.

After that, the world reverts back to what it was doing.

My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy. It's more like a slow moving natural disaster.

I'll admit I don't feel super confident that this is how things work. Happy to be corrected!

My father lost his job in the 2008 recession at an engineering firm.

He started his own consultancy.

Dozen or so years later he's pulling in mid 6 figures by himself working 40-60h a month at home.

Do the same. Have skills, learn to sell them.

The care industry at local level is poised to do well and get funded more than in the recent past in order to protect the vulnerable part of the population from the disease and avoid further waves. They will need generalists and computer-savvy operators to smoothen their peaks for sure.

I'm learning how to refinish my decks. Needs some rotten wood replaced. A massive clean. A repaint. And a whole bunch of gross looking misaligned cuts replaced too. I'll then re-do the wiring for the staircase lights and outlet.

I like this project because it isn't blocking anything (like if I took the kitchen out). And when it's all done, this will be the summer I made our back decks beautiful rather than the summer we were stuck inside feeling anxious.

> the effects of the global domino triggered by conoravirus will echo for many years to come.

Why? As far as I know there's no underlying systemic financial reason for a depression or recession. The virus sucks. Some companies will no doubt have a bad quarter or two. But viruses pass, and this one will too.

> I'm afraid that in this new reality my software/management skills won't be of any use in 6 months.

That seems hyperbolic.

People skills & Frustration tolerance

1-2% of society are always on the verge of depression, as that is just how gauss distributions work. But chances are, it'll soon be 10%. Google therapeutic shopping and you know that people are willing to spend a lot of money to feel better.

So if you can handle hearing the whining of depressed people without it dragging you down too much, offer to do free video chat with lonely people now. Your goal isn't to change their situation in any way, but by telling you about it and feeling heard, you can help them change their feelings about their situation. So you mostly just listen, reveal related facts about yourself, and ask caring questions.

Once the crisis is over, your newfound ability to stay cheerful in the presence of adversity and your ability to get along well with different kinds of people will be a very valuable asset for romance and work.

Add cooking and laundry and those 4 traits are what I believe most HN readers will be lacking in comparison to the normal population.

I'd recommend learning about markets and economics. My suspicion is that states will continue to implement all steps necessary to contain the virus over the next 18 months and bail out all businesses and consumers in order to keep the productivity of the economy close to the level prior to the outbreak. Depending on how difficult it will be to contain the virus, this might require funds on an unprecedented scale in modern times. It's difficult to predict how eager investors will be to finance these deficits. Obviously something like a hyperinflation scenario is completely out of the question for a developed state like the US and there will likely be more deflationary pressure over the next few years, but at some point states will have to deleverage and I'm inclined to say that they will probably do this using higher inflation rates, in which case you can probably profit a lot from knowing about markets and economics.

Learn to learn.

And then practice learning. Our brains have very high capacity to learn, adapt and forget quite a lot - just believe that you can, and you will. All you need is focused effort. You only need to prove that belief once to yourself. I know this sounds philosophical, but it works.

Becoming an expert in an area is quite another thing. For that you need to evaluate the benefits.

> new state of things

Nobody can predict the new state of things. We can make an educated guess. And my guess is that software skills will be useful for many decades to come. You may have to get better to stay ahead of the competition and that might be more work. The economic impact of the lockdowns has already started hurting small businesses as contracts are being cancelled/paused. They can only take 2 more months of beating, but to clear economic uncertainty we all have to be back to normal working within next 15 days- that is simply not possible. So get ready for small biz to cut/die first followed by the bigger ones.

> will echo for many years to come

I think the worst is yet to show up, the next two months will show where we stand as a world on the pandemic. Right now we only see virus as a health issue, but the virus effect is also shaking up the geopolitical state of the world and questioning global trade and policies. We will probably come out of it quicker than before. The economic effects will be huge, but not necessarily bad for every country.

Being a doctor is always valuable, though I'm not sure it's that easy to retrain into one...

More importantly, knowing how to live frugally is valuable in and of itself, assuming we do end up with a once-in-a-century-type depression.

Not impossible, according to some (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22655670) but then forecasting is very difficult, especially when it involves the future.

Cyber security maybe? I don't think that companies will seize needing sales roles?

I know that Launch School is doing a webinar about this topic the coming days, titled:

'How to Navigate a Recession for Software Engineers'

I am not affiliated with them, but here is the webinar link:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_xarP2qpeRdKTfD-qikbX4A

develop a flare for barter and trade. learn how to provide the things people actually need.

general construction trades and adhoc engineering.

farming. hunting fishing.

veternary skills surgical skills midwivery dentistry.

localized /offgrid/on site power generation.

production of fuel from raw materials.

Agriculture, hunting, fishing, carpentry and masonry.

Work from home effectively.

Learn to make a budget and stick to it. People who follow and understand the expression "Waste not want not." and act accordingly will be in a much better position.

Start with going over your latest bank or credit card statement and really think about where your money has gone and where it should be going.

"How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time!"

> I'm afraid that in this new reality my software/management skills won't be of any use in 6 months.

First skill: Patience

Second skill: Adaptability

Third skill: Resilience. Software will always be needed. You just might need to work a "beer money" job for a little while.

There always are a few skills that help during recession. When recession comes, people want to switch to cheaper ways of doing things. So find a way to making stuff less expensive always helps.

There was a thread on 4chan covering possible jobs during the Apocalypse.

Scavenging, Mushroom picker, Hunter, Under Ground Bunker Specialist, Medic, Combat/Army specialist, Tinkerer, etc.

I can say that my apparently unusual innate ability to get slack and zoom video and screen sharing to work has been in great demand for the last few weeks.

If this is the same level as '08 I don't think much will change in your sector. The demand will still be there,just a lot less of it. If your employer is not in tech either you lose a job or you don't see a pay increase for a while. If your employer is in tech then there are plenty of non-tech places all over that are starving for your talent which will do well in a recession.

> “...I'm afraid that in this new reality my software/management skills won't be of any use in 6 months.”

I’m curious: What do you mean by this?

Knowing multiple languages, to maximize your options.

the #1 thing is how to build community online... effectively, relationships.

this is actually harder to do for a lot of folks... especially the millions who are now forced to do it.

im training a few folks a week: http://yen.camp

Knowing Chinese ...

I believe that we should always be on the move to adapt to changing environment and foster multi-skilling. I am actually in the same frame of mind!

Aim to be an expert in your field = what you love to do and you'll be fine. High performing people are unaffected during crisis.

Learning what to cook to stretch your food supply. Learning not to waste food.

Honestly, right now during the pandemic, medical courier. How do you think tests get to labs?

How to grow vegetables and fruit in the garden.

Cyber security?

turning stress and chaos into patient and focus (and using this time to do whatever is beneficial)

Carpentry

if the GPS goes out of business because people aren't leaving the house, you'll need to navigate dense urban areas without assistance

I think the most important skill is learning how to gain access to zero-interest loans from the Federal Reserve.

This skill allows you to lend to your buddies who can purchase distressed businesses and properties for pennies on the dollar, which gives you and them the opportunity to make billions in profits while everybody else is suffering.

I’m still trying to learn how to do this; if anybody has any information about what’s required, please reply.

making masks.

Calling All People Who Sew And Make: You Can Help Make Masks For 2020 Healthcare Worker PPE Shortage

"In settings where facemasks are not available, HCP might use homemade masks (e.g., bandana, scarf) for care of patients with COVID-19 as a last resort."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2020/03/20/calling-all-...